Program risk analysis handbook

NASA regulations specify that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from extremely simple to complex network-based simulation, are described in this handbook in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique. All program risk assessment techniques are shown to be based on elicitation and encoding of subjective probability estimates from the various area experts on a program. Techniques to encode the five most common distribution types are given. Then, a total of twelve distinct approaches to risk assessment are given. Steps involved, good and bad points, time involved, and degree of computer support needed are listed. Why risk analysis should be used by all NASA program managers is discussed. Tools available at NASA-MSFC are identified, along with commercially available software. Bibliography (150 entries) and a program risk analysis check-list are provided

Planning R and D projects using GERT

Research and development project planning described and analyzed by GER

Orbiting quarantine facility. The Antaeus report

A mission plan for the Orbiting Quarantine Facility (OQF) is presented. Coverage includes system overview, quarantine and protocol, the laboratory, support systems, cost analysis and possible additional uses of the OQF

A neural network model to forecast and describe bond ratings

Neural Network;Bond Ratings;accountancy

Software development management using metamodels and activity networks

This thesis develops the concept, management and control of metamodels for the management of software development projects. Metamodels provide a more flexible approach for managing and controlling the software engineering process and are based on the integration of several software development paradigms. Generalised Activity Networks are used to provide the more powerful planning techniques required for managing metamodels. In this thesis, both new node logics, that clarify previous work in this field, and Generalised Activity-on-the-Arrow and Generalised Activity-on-the-Node representations are developed and defined. Activity-on-the-Node representations reflect the current mood of the project management industry and allow constraints to be applied directly to logical dependencies between activities. The Generalised Activity Networks defined within this thesis can be used as tools to manage risks and uncertainties in both software developments and general engineering projects. They reflect the variation and uncertainties in projects more realistically and improve the planning and scheduling of such projects. [Continues.

Effects of augmented exercise therapy time after stroke: a meta-analysis

<p><b>Background and Purpose:</b> To present a systematic review of studies that addresses the effects of intensity of augmented exercise therapy time (AETT) on activities of daily living (ADL), walking, and dexterity in patients with stroke.</p> <p><b>Summary of Review:</b> A database of articles published from 1966 to November 2003 was compiled from MEDLINE, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, PEDro, DARE, and PiCarta using combinations of the following key words: stroke, cerebrovascular disorders, physical therapy, physiotherapy, occupational therapy, exercise therapy, rehabilitation, intensity, dose–response relationship, effectiveness, and randomized controlled trial. References presented in relevant publications were examined as well as abstracts in proceedings. Studies that satisfied the following selection criteria were included: (1) patients had a diagnosis of stroke; (2) effects of intensity of exercise training were investigated; and (3) design of the study was a randomized controlled trial (RCT). For each outcome measure, the estimated effect size (ES) and the summary effect size (SES) expressed in standard deviation units (SDU) were calculated for ADL, walking speed, and dexterity using fixed and random effect models. Correlation coefficients were calculated between observed individual effect sizes on ADL of each study, additional time spent on exercise training, and methodological quality. Cumulative meta-analyses (random effects model) adjusted for the difference in treatment intensity in each study was used for the trials evaluating the effects of AETT provided. Twenty of the 31 candidate studies, involving 2686 stroke patients, were included in the synthesis. The methodological quality ranged from 2 to 10 out of the maximum score of 14 points. The meta-analysis resulted in a small but statistically significant SES with regard to ADL measured at the end of the intervention phase. Further analysis showed a significant homogeneous SES for 17 studies that investigated effects of increased exercise intensity within the first 6 months after stroke. No significant SES was observed for the 3 studies conducted in the chronic phase. Cumulative meta-analysis strongly suggests that at least a 16-hour difference in treatment time between experimental and control groups provided in the first 6 months after stroke is needed to obtain significant differences in ADL. A significant SES supporting a higher intensity was also observed for instrumental ADL and walking speed, whereas no significant SES was found for dexterity.</p> <p><b>Conclusion:</b> The results of the present research synthesis support the hypothesis that augmented exercise therapy has a small but favorable effect on ADL, particularly if therapy input is augmented at least 16 hours within the first 6 months after stroke. This meta-analysis also suggests that clinically relevant treatment effects may be achieved on instrumental ADL and gait speed.</p&gt

Spatial encoding in primate hippocampus during free navigation.

The hippocampus comprises two neural signals-place cells and θ oscillations-that contribute to facets of spatial navigation. Although their complementary relationship has been well established in rodents, their respective contributions in the primate brain during free navigation remains unclear. Here, we recorded neural activity in the hippocampus of freely moving marmosets as they naturally explored a spatial environment to more explicitly investigate this issue. We report place cells in marmoset hippocampus during free navigation that exhibit remarkable parallels to analogous neurons in other mammalian species. Although θ oscillations were prevalent in the marmoset hippocampus, the patterns of activity were notably different than in other taxa. This local field potential oscillation occurred in short bouts (approximately .4 s)-rather than continuously-and was neither significantly modulated by locomotion nor consistently coupled to place-cell activity. These findings suggest that the relationship between place-cell activity and θ oscillations in primate hippocampus during free navigation differs substantially from rodents and paint an intriguing comparative picture regarding the neural basis of spatial navigation across mammals

Benchmarking and incentive regulation of quality of service: an application to the UK electricity distribution utilities

Quality of service has emerged as an important issue in post-reform regulation of electricity distribution networks. Regulators have employed partial incentive schemes to promote cost saving, investment efficiency, and service quality. This paper presents a quality-incorporated benchmarking study of the electricity distribution utilities in the UK between 1991/92 and 1998/99. We calculate technical efficiency of the utilities using Data Envelopment Analysis technique and productivity change over time using quality-incorporated Malmquist indices. We find that cost efficient firms do not necessarily exhibit high service quality and that efficiency scores of cost-only models do not show high correlation with those of quality-based models. The results also show that improvements in service quality have made a significant contribution to the sector’s total productivity change. In addition, we show that integrating quality of service in regulatory benchmarking is preferable to cost-only approaches.quality of service, benchmarking, incentive regulation, data envelopment analysis, electricity