Is Futures Market Mitigating Price Risk: An Exploration of Wheat and Maize Market

Instability of commodity prices has always been a major concern of the producers as well as the consumers in an agriculture-dominated country like India. Farmers in a bid to avert the price risk often tend to go for distress sale and thereby reduce the potential returns. In order to cope up with this problem, futures trading has emerged as a viable option for providing a greater degree of assurance on the price front. Thus, futures markets serve as a risk -shifting function. In the present study, an attempt has been made to look into the mechanism of movement of spot and futures prices for two important food crops in Indian agriculture. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test has been used for both the crops to check the stationarity of the time series data. Most of the series have been observed to follow the stationary pattern at the first difference. The cointegration test has been attempted to find out whether there exists a longrun relationship between spot and futures prices of various contract months for maize and wheat crops. However, there exists a short run disequilibrium between these two. It has been observed that the futures contract behave in an expected manner and there exists a mechanism for long-run equilibrium in the maize as well as wheat crops. This phenomenon of price convergence for both maize and wheat crops clearly states that the farmers are mitigating price risk as spot prices and future prices converges.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Equilibrium Exhaustible Resource Price Dynamics

We develop equilibrium models of an exhaustible resource market where both prices and extraction choices are determined endogenously. Our analysis highlights a role for adjustment costs in generating price dynamics that are consistent with observed oil and gas forward prices as well as with the two-factor prices processes that were calibrated in Schwartz and Smith (2000). Stochastic volatility aries in our two-factor model as a natural consequence of production for oil and natural gas prices. Differences between the endogenous price processes considered in earlier papers can generate significant differences in both financial and real option values.

On the spot-futures no-arbitrage relations in commodity markets

In commodity markets the convergence of futures towards spot prices, at the expiration of the contract, is usually justified by no-arbitrage arguments. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that relies on the expected profit maximization problem of an agent, producing and storing a commodity while trading in the associated futures contracts. In this framework, the relation between the spot and the futures prices holds through the well-posedness of the maximization problem. We show that the futures price can still be seen as the risk-neutral expectation of the spot price at maturity and we propose an explicit formula for the forward volatility. Moreover, we provide an heuristic analysis of the optimal solution for the production/storage/trading problem, in a Markovian setting. This approach is particularly interesting in the case of energy commodities, like electricity: this framework indeed remains suitable for commodities characterized by storability constraints, when standard no-arbitrage arguments cannot be safely applied

Commodity Price Insurance:A Keynesian Idea Revisited

Keynes proposed that a ‘Commod Control’ agency be created after the Second World War to stabilise spot prices of key internationally traded commodities by systematically buying and selling physical buffer stocks. In this paper, the creation of a new Global Commodity Insurer (GCI) is discussed that would operate an international Commodity Price Insurance (CPI) scheme with the objective of protecting national government revenues, spending and investment against the adverse impact of short- term deviations in commodity prices, and especially oil prices, from their long-run equilibrium level. Crude oil is the core commodity in this scheme because energy represents 50% of world commodity exports, and oil price shocks have historically had a significant macroeconomic impact. In effect the GCI would develop a new international market, which is currently missing, designed to protect governments against the risk of declines in their fiscal revenue, and increases in the level of claims on that income especially from social programmes, brought about by short-term commodity price shocks. GCI would take advantage of the rapid growth of trading in derivative securities in the global capital market since the 1980s by selling CPI insurance contracts tailored to the specific commodity price exposure faced by national government, and offsetting the resulting price risk with a portfolio of derivative contracts of five-year or longer maturities, supplied by banks, insurers, reinsurers, investment institutions, and commodity trading companies, with investment grade credit ratings. The difference between the CPI and a buffer stock or export/import control scheme is that it would mitigate the macro-economic shocks posed by commodity price volatility, but not attempt to control commodity prices. The cost of the CPI scheme is estimated by simulating 5-year commodity price paths using a standard log price mean reverting model parameterised from an econometric analysis of commodity price time series.Commodity Price Insurance

Modelling and measuring price discovery in commodity markets.

In this paper we present an equilibrium model of commodity spot (St) and future (Ft) prices, with finite elasticity of arbitrage services and convenience yields. By explicitly incorporating and modeling endogenously the convenience yield, our theoretical model is able to capture the existence of backwardation or contango in the long-run spot-future equilibrium relationship, (St-ß2Ft ). When the slope of the cointegrating vector ß2>1 (ß2<1) the market is under long-run backwardation (contango). It is the first time in which the theoretical possibility of finding a cointegrating vector different from the standard ß2=1 is formally considered. Independent of the value of ß2, this paper shows that the equilibrium model admits an Error Correction Representation, where the linear combination of (St) and (Ft) characterizing the price discovery process, coincides with the permanent component of the Gonzalo-Granger (1995) Permanent-Transitory decomposition. This linear combination depends on the elasticity of arbitrage services and is determined by the relative liquidity traded in the spot and future markets. Such outcome not only provides a theoretical justification for this Permanent-Transitory decomposition? but it offers a simple way of detecting which of the two prices is dominant in the price discovery process. All the results produced in this article are testable, as it can be seen in the application to spot and future non-ferrous metals prices (Al, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn) traded in the London Metal Exchange (LME). Most markets are in backwardation and future prices are ?information dominant? in the most liquid future markets (Al, Cu, Ni, Zn).Backwardation; Cointegration; Commodity markets; Contango; Convenience Yield; Future prices; Price discovery; Permanent-transitory decomposition;

Rational expectations and commodity price forecasts

The main purpose of this paper is to take a new look at the commodity market (CM) price forecasts in light of recent investigations. The CM forecasts are similar in nature to the survey expectations in that both solicit market experts'opinions about future price developments. However, there are important differences: CM forecasts are more of the consensus-type forecasts than survey data and deal with physical goods that are subject to different risks and constraints. The characteristics of the CM forecasts are reviewed in relation to the futures prices of the same commodities. This paper also estimates the alternative expectational models and tests the rationality of the expectational behavior.Economic Forecasting,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access

The Futures Pricing Puzzle

This paper models commodity futures in a rational expectations equilibrium specifically (i) incorporating the conflict of interests between Hedgers (Producers-Consumers) and Speculators and (ii) superimposing constraints to immunize the real sector of the economy from shocks of excessive futures contracting. We extend the framework of Newbery and Stiglitz (1981), Anderson and Danthine (1983) and Britto (1984) to attribute the conflicting and puzzling results in the empirical literature to the presence of multiple equilibria ranked in a pecking order of decreasing pareto-efficiency. Thus, we caution empirical researchers on making inferences on data embedded with moving equilibria, as it can render their analysis of asset pricing mechanism incomprehensible. Finally, we rationalize the imposition of position limits by policy makers to help steer the equilibria to pareto-inferior ones, which make the real sector of the economy more resilient to shocks from the financial sectorContango, Expectations, Normal Backwardations

Joint Modelling of Gas and Electricity spot prices

The recent liberalization of the electricity and gas markets has resulted in the growth of energy exchanges and modelling problems. In this paper, we modelize jointly gas and electricity spot prices using a mean-reverting model which fits the correlations structures for the two commodities. The dynamics are based on Ornstein processes with parameterized diffusion coefficients. Moreover, using the empirical distributions of the spot prices, we derive a class of such parameterized diffusions which captures the most salient statistical properties: stationarity, spikes and heavy-tailed distributions. The associated calibration procedure is based on standard and efficient statistical tools. We calibrate the model on French market for electricity and on UK market for gas, and then simulate some trajectories which reproduce well the observed prices behavior. Finally, we illustrate the importance of the correlation structure and of the presence of spikes by measuring the risk on a power plant portfolio