Using bricolage to facilitate emergent collectives in SMEs

Starting a new business is often done in a realm of improvisation if resources are scarce and the business horizon is far from clear. Strategic improvisation occurs when the design of novel activities unite. We conducted an investigation of so called ‘emergent collectives’ in the context of a small and medium-sized enterprise (SME). Emergent collectives are networks of information nodes with minimal central control and largely controlled by a protocol specification where people can add nodes to the network and have a social incentive to do so. We considered here emergent collectives around an enterprise resources planning (ERP) software and a customer relation management (CRM) software in two open source software (OSS) communities. We investigated how the use of bricolage in the context of a start-up microenterprise can facilitate the adoption of an information system (IS) based on emergent collectives. Bricolage is an improvisational approach that allows learning form concrete experience. In our case study we followed the inception of a new business initiative up to the implementation of an IS, during a period of two years. The case study covers both the usefulness of bricolage for strategic improvisation and for entrepreneurial activity in a knowledge-intensive new business. We adopted an interpretative research strategy and used participatory action research to conduct our inquiry. Our findings lead to the suggestion that emergent collectives can be moulded into a usable set of IS resources applicable in a microenterprise. However the success depends heavily on the ICT managerial and technological capabilities of the CEO and his individual commitment to the process of bricolage. Our findings also show that open ERP and CRM software are not passing delusions. These emergent collectives will not take over proprietary ERP and CRM software all of a sudden, but clearly the rules of the game are slowly changing due to the introduction of new business models. The study contributes to the research of OSS as emergent collectives, bricolage and IS adoption in SMEs

A methodology for the selection of new technologies in the aviation industry

The purpose of this report is to present a technology selection methodology to quantify both tangible and intangible benefits of certain technology alternatives within a fuzzy environment. Specifically, it describes an application of the theory of fuzzy sets to hierarchical structural analysis and economic evaluations for utilisation in the industry. The report proposes a complete methodology to accurately select new technologies. A computer based prototype model has been developed to handle the more complex fuzzy calculations. Decision-makers are only required to express their opinions on comparative importance of various factors in linguistic terms rather than exact numerical values. These linguistic variable scales, such as ‘very high’, ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’ and ‘very low’, are then converted into fuzzy numbers, since it becomes more meaningful to quantify a subjective measurement into a range rather than in an exact value. By aggregating the hierarchy, the preferential weight of each alternative technology is found, which is called fuzzy appropriate index. The fuzzy appropriate indices of different technologies are then ranked and preferential ranking orders of technologies are found. From the economic evaluation perspective, a fuzzy cash flow analysis is employed. This deals quantitatively with imprecision or uncertainties, as the cash flows are modelled as triangular fuzzy numbers which represent ‘the most likely possible value’, ‘the most pessimistic value’ and ‘the most optimistic value’. By using this methodology, the ambiguities involved in the assessment data can be effectively represented and processed to assure a more convincing and effective decision- making process when selecting new technologies in which to invest. The prototype model was validated with a case study within the aviation industry that ensured it was properly configured to meet the

Risk prediction of product-harm events using rough sets and multiple classifier fusion:an experimental study of listed companies in China

With the increasing of frequency and destructiveness of product-harm events, study on enterprise crisis management becomes essentially important, but little literature thoroughly explores the risk prediction method of product-harm event. In this study, an initial index system for risk prediction was built based on the analysis of the key drivers of the product-harm event's evolution; ultimately, nine risk-forecasting indexes were obtained using rough set attribute reduction. With the four indexes of cumulative abnormal returns as the input, fuzzy clustering was used to classify the risk level of a product-harm event into four grades. In order to control the uncertainty and instability of single classifiers in risk prediction, multiple classifier fusion was introduced and combined with self-organising data mining (SODM). Further, an SODM-based multiple classifier fusion (SB-MCF) model was presented for the risk prediction related to a product-harm event. The experimental results based on 165 Chinese listed companies indicated that the SB-MCF model improved the average predictive accuracy and reduced variation degree simultaneously. The statistical analysis demonstrated that the SB-MCF model significantly outperformed six widely used single classification models (e.g. neural networks, support vector machine, and case-based reasoning) and other six commonly used multiple classifier fusion methods (e.g. majority voting, Bayesian method, and genetic algorithm)

A Review of the Criteria and Methods of Reverse Logistics Supplier Selection

This article presents a literature review on reverse logistics (RL) supplier selection in terms of criteria and methods. A systematic view of past work published between 2008 and 2020 on Web of Science (WOS) databases is provided by reviewing, categorizing, and analyzing relevant papers. Based on the analyses of 41 articles, we propose a three-stage typology of decision-making frameworks to understanding RL supplier selection, including (a) establishment of the selection criteria; (b) calculation of the relative weights and ranking of the selection criteria; (c) ranking of alternatives (suppliers). The main discoveries of this review are as follows. (1) Attention to the field of RL supplier selection is increasing, as evidenced by the increasing number of papers in the field. With the adaption of circular economy legislation and the need resource and business resilience, it is expected that RL and RL supplier selection will be a hot topic in the near future. (2) A large number of papers take “sustainability” as the theoretical approach to carry out research and use it as the basis for determining the criteria. (3) Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods have been widely used in RL supplier selection and have been constantly innovated. (4) Artificial intelligence methods are also gradually being applied. Finally, gaps in the literature are identified to provide directions for future research. (5) Value-added service is underrepresented in the current study and needs further attention

A Comprehensive Survey on Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis: Problems, Methods, Spotlights and Applications

Enterprise financial risk analysis aims at predicting the enterprises' future financial risk.Due to the wide application, enterprise financial risk analysis has always been a core research issue in finance. Although there are already some valuable and impressive surveys on risk management, these surveys introduce approaches in a relatively isolated way and lack the recent advances in enterprise financial risk analysis. Due to the rapid expansion of the enterprise financial risk analysis, especially from the computer science and big data perspective, it is both necessary and challenging to comprehensively review the relevant studies. This survey attempts to connect and systematize the existing enterprise financial risk researches, as well as to summarize and interpret the mechanisms and the strategies of enterprise financial risk analysis in a comprehensive way, which may help readers have a better understanding of the current research status and ideas. This paper provides a systematic literature review of over 300 articles published on enterprise risk analysis modelling over a 50-year period, 1968 to 2022. We first introduce the formal definition of enterprise risk as well as the related concepts. Then, we categorized the representative works in terms of risk type and summarized the three aspects of risk analysis. Finally, we compared the analysis methods used to model the enterprise financial risk. Our goal is to clarify current cutting-edge research and its possible future directions to model enterprise risk, aiming to fully understand the mechanisms of enterprise risk communication and influence and its application on corporate governance, financial institution and government regulation

An empirical study on credit evaluation of SMEs based on detailed loan data

Small and micro-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are an important part of Chinese economic system.The establishment of credit evaluating model of SMEs can effectively help financial intermediaries to reveal credit risk of enterprises and reduce the cost of enterprises information acquisition. Besides it can also serve as a guide to investors which also helps companies with good credit. This thesis conducts an empirical study based on loan data from a Chinese bank of loans granted to SMEs. The study aims to develop a data-driven model that can accurately predict if a given loan has an acceptable risk from the bank’s perspective, or not. Furthermore, we test different methods to deal with the problem of unbalanced class and uncredible sample. Lastly, the importance of variables is analyzed. Remaining Unpaid Principal, Floating Interest Rate, Time Until Maturity Date, Real Interest Rate, Amount of Loan all have significant effects on the final result of the prediction.The main contribution of this study is to build a credit evaluation model of small and micro enterprises, which not only helps commercial banks accurately identify the credit risk of small and micro enterprises, but also helps to overcome creditdifficulties of small and micro enterprises.As pequenas e microempresas constituem uma parte importante do sistema económico chinês. A definição de um modelo de avaliação de crédito para estas empresas pode ajudar os intermediários financeiros a revelarem o risco de crédito das empresas e a reduzirem o custo de aquisição de informação das empresas. Além disso, pode igualmente servir como guia para os investidores, auxiliando também empresas com bom crédito. Na presente tese apresenta-se um estudo empírico baseado em dados de um banco chinês relativos a empréstimos concedidos a pequenas e microempresas. O estudo visa desenvolver um modelo empírico que possa prever com precisão se um determinado empréstimo tem um risco aceitável do ponto de vista do banco, ou não. Além disso, são efetuados testes com diferentes métodos que permitem lidar com os problemas de classes de dados não balanceadas e de amostras que não refletem o problema real a modelar. Finalmente, é analisada a importância relativa das variáveis. O montante da dívida por pagar, a taxa de juro variável, o prazo até a data de vencimento, a taxa de juro real, o montante do empréstimo, todas têm efeitos significativos no resultado final da previsão. O principal contributo deste estudo é, assim, a construção de um modelo de avaliação de crédito que permite apoiar os bancos comerciais a identificarem com precisão o risco de crédito das pequenas e micro empresas e ajudar também estas empresas a superarem as suas dificuldades de crédito

How Secure Are Good Loans: Validating Loan-Granting Decisions And Predicting Default Rates On Consumer Loans

The failure or success of the banking industry depends largely on the industrys ability to properly evaluate credit risk. In the consumer-lending context, the banks goal is to maximize income by issuing as many good loans to consumers as possible while avoiding losses associated with bad loans. Mistakes could severely affect profits because the losses associated with one bad loan may undermine the income earned on many good loans. Therefore banks carefully evaluate the financial status of each customer as well as their credit worthiness and weigh them against the banks internal loan-granting policies. Recognizing that even a small improvement in credit scoring accuracy translates into significant future savings, the banking industry and the scientific community have been employing various machine learning and traditional statistical techniques to improve credit risk prediction accuracy.This paper examines historical data from consumer loans issued by a financial institution to individuals that the financial institution deemed to be qualified customers. The data consists of the financial attributes of each customer and includes a mixture of loans that the customers paid off and defaulted upon. The paper uses three different data mining techniques (decision trees, neural networks, logit regression) and the ensemble model, which combines the three techniques, to predict whether a particular customer defaulted or paid off his/her loan. The paper then compares the effectiveness of each technique and analyzes the risk of default inherent in each loan and group of loans. The data mining classification techniques and analysis can enable banks to more precisely classify consumers into various credit risk groups. Knowing what risk group a consumer falls into would allow a bank to fine tune its lending policies by recognizing high risk groups of consumers to whom loans should not be issued, and identifying safer loans that should be issued, on terms commensurate with the risk of default

A novel financial risk assessment model for companies based on heterogeneous information and aggregated historical data

The financial risk not only affects the development of the company itself, but also affects the economic development of the whole society; therefore, the financial risk assessment of company is an important part. At present, numerous methods of financial risk assessment have been researched by scholars. However, most of the extant methods neither integrated fuzzy sets with quantitative analysis, nor took into account the historical data of the past few years