10,134 research outputs found

    Quantifying and Explaining Machine Learning Uncertainty in Predictive Process Monitoring: An Operations Research Perspective

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    This paper introduces a comprehensive, multi-stage machine learning methodology that effectively integrates information systems and artificial intelligence to enhance decision-making processes within the domain of operations research. The proposed framework adeptly addresses common limitations of existing solutions, such as the neglect of data-driven estimation for vital production parameters, exclusive generation of point forecasts without considering model uncertainty, and lacking explanations regarding the sources of such uncertainty. Our approach employs Quantile Regression Forests for generating interval predictions, alongside both local and global variants of SHapley Additive Explanations for the examined predictive process monitoring problem. The practical applicability of the proposed methodology is substantiated through a real-world production planning case study, emphasizing the potential of prescriptive analytics in refining decision-making procedures. This paper accentuates the imperative of addressing these challenges to fully harness the extensive and rich data resources accessible for well-informed decision-making

    BotMoE: Twitter Bot Detection with Community-Aware Mixtures of Modal-Specific Experts

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    Twitter bot detection has become a crucial task in efforts to combat online misinformation, mitigate election interference, and curb malicious propaganda. However, advanced Twitter bots often attempt to mimic the characteristics of genuine users through feature manipulation and disguise themselves to fit in diverse user communities, posing challenges for existing Twitter bot detection models. To this end, we propose BotMoE, a Twitter bot detection framework that jointly utilizes multiple user information modalities (metadata, textual content, network structure) to improve the detection of deceptive bots. Furthermore, BotMoE incorporates a community-aware Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layer to improve domain generalization and adapt to different Twitter communities. Specifically, BotMoE constructs modal-specific encoders for metadata features, textual content, and graphical structure, which jointly model Twitter users from three modal-specific perspectives. We then employ a community-aware MoE layer to automatically assign users to different communities and leverage the corresponding expert networks. Finally, user representations from metadata, text, and graph perspectives are fused with an expert fusion layer, combining all three modalities while measuring the consistency of user information. Extensive experiments demonstrate that BotMoE significantly advances the state-of-the-art on three Twitter bot detection benchmarks. Studies also confirm that BotMoE captures advanced and evasive bots, alleviates the reliance on training data, and better generalizes to new and previously unseen user communities.Comment: Accepted at SIGIR 202

    Identifying Student Profiles Within Online Judge Systems Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence

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    Online Judge (OJ) systems are typically considered within programming-related courses as they yield fast and objective assessments of the code developed by the students. Such an evaluation generally provides a single decision based on a rubric, most commonly whether the submission successfully accomplished the assignment. Nevertheless, since in an educational context such information may be deemed insufficient, it would be beneficial for both the student and the instructor to receive additional feedback about the overall development of the task. This work aims to tackle this limitation by considering the further exploitation of the information gathered by the OJ and automatically inferring feedback for both the student and the instructor. More precisely, we consider the use of learning-based schemes—particularly, Multi-Instance Learning and classical Machine Learning formulations—to model student behaviour. Besides, Explainable Artificial Intelligence is contemplated to provide human-understandable feedback. The proposal has been evaluated considering a case of study comprising 2,500 submissions from roughly 90 different students from a programming-related course in a Computer Science degree. The results obtained validate the proposal: the model is capable of significantly predicting the user outcome (either passing or failing the assignment) solely based on the behavioural pattern inferred by the submissions provided to the OJ. Moreover, the proposal is able to identify prone-to-fail student groups and profiles as well as other relevant information, which eventually serves as feedback to both the student and the instructor.This work has been partially funded by the “Programa Redes-I3CE de investigacion en docencia universitaria del Instituto de Ciencias de la Educacion (REDES-I3CE-2020-5069)” of the University of Alicante. The third author is supported by grant APOSTD/2020/256 from “Programa I+D+I de la Generalitat Valenciana”

    Qluster: An easy-to-implement generic workflow for robust clustering of health data

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    The exploration of heath data by clustering algorithms allows to better describe the populations of interest by seeking the sub-profiles that compose it. This therefore reinforces medical knowledge, whether it is about a disease or a targeted population in real life. Nevertheless, contrary to the so-called conventional biostatistical methods where numerous guidelines exist, the standardization of data science approaches in clinical research remains a little discussed subject. This results in a significant variability in the execution of data science projects, whether in terms of algorithms used, reliability and credibility of the designed approach. Taking the path of parsimonious and judicious choice of both algorithms and implementations at each stage, this article proposes Qluster, a practical workflow for performing clustering tasks. Indeed, this workflow makes a compromise between (1) genericity of applications (e.g. usable on small or big data, on continuous, categorical or mixed variables, on database of high-dimensionality or not), (2) ease of implementation (need for few packages, few algorithms, few parameters, ...), and (3) robustness (e.g. use of proven algorithms and robust packages, evaluation of the stability of clusters, management of noise and multicollinearity). This workflow can be easily automated and/or routinely applied on a wide range of clustering projects. It can be useful both for data scientists with little experience in the field to make data clustering easier and more robust, and for more experienced data scientists who are looking for a straightforward and reliable solution to routinely perform preliminary data mining. A synthesis of the literature on data clustering as well as the scientific rationale supporting the proposed workflow is also provided. Finally, a detailed application of the workflow on a concrete use case is provided, along with a practical discussion for data scientists. An implementation on the Dataiku platform is available upon request to the authors

    BEYOND THE MYTH: Screenwriting Approaches to Biographical Films

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    This PhD submission comprises an original screenplay on the relationship between African American activist Paul Robeson and the mining community of south Wales titled Robeson: They Can’t Stop Us Singing, and the accompanying exegesis. The aim is to explore, by academic study (gnosis) and creative practice (praxis), the previously overlooked field of writing biographical films, or biopics, and to acknowledge the role of the screenwriter in telling a person’s life story on film. The script is the experiment; the exegesis is the analysis and methodology. The role of the screenwriter is underrepresented across cinema studies, but no more so than in the discussion of biopics. My exegesis begins by exploring what academic and popular writing already exists on English-language biopics, highlighting that amidst auteurist approaches prevalent in cinema studies, little credit has been afforded to screenwriters. I seek to address this by examining how screenwriters have responded to historiographical and socio-political contexts while balancing the needs of the audience with factual integrity (or sometimes not), before using the case studies of Abraham Lincoln and Charles Lindbergh to explore how American hero figures have been represented on screen. How does a script written on Lincoln in 1939, for example, differ in terms of tone and political philosophy to one delivered in the 21st century? Using historical approaches, the exegesis then examines the life of Paul Robeson and the Welsh miners he knew, to observe the meticulous choices required by the screenwriter researching and writing a biopic script. Using primary sources (interviews with living dramatic writers, including the BAFTA-nominated screenwriter of the biopic, Good Vibrations) and secondary sources (screenplays, films, audio, interviews, other academic writing), I question where and when to begin and end a biographical story, which parts of a person’s life to include or jettison, how to make a historical figure’s events pertinent to a contemporary audience, and how to utilise fictionalised elements in a drama while adhering to a central truth. My own screenplay on Robeson and Wales is the embodiment of this research. The script demonstrates the myriad artistic decisions that need to be made to present the qualities and flaws of the historical figure. It shows why fictionalised moments and composite characters contribute to an understanding of a real person’s motives and feelings in a way documentary and historical writing cannot. And it stands as a record of the screenwriter’s previously overlooked contribution to creating biographical films

    Examples of works to practice staccato technique in clarinet instrument

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    Klarnetin staccato tekniğini güçlendirme aşamaları eser çalışmalarıyla uygulanmıştır. Staccato geçişlerini hızlandıracak ritim ve nüans çalışmalarına yer verilmiştir. Çalışmanın en önemli amacı sadece staccato çalışması değil parmak-dilin eş zamanlı uyumunun hassasiyeti üzerinde de durulmasıdır. Staccato çalışmalarını daha verimli hale getirmek için eser çalışmasının içinde etüt çalışmasına da yer verilmiştir. Çalışmaların üzerinde titizlikle durulması staccato çalışmasının ilham verici etkisi ile müzikal kimliğe yeni bir boyut kazandırmıştır. Sekiz özgün eser çalışmasının her aşaması anlatılmıştır. Her aşamanın bir sonraki performans ve tekniği güçlendirmesi esas alınmıştır. Bu çalışmada staccato tekniğinin hangi alanlarda kullanıldığı, nasıl sonuçlar elde edildiği bilgisine yer verilmiştir. Notaların parmak ve dil uyumu ile nasıl şekilleneceği ve nasıl bir çalışma disiplini içinde gerçekleşeceği planlanmıştır. Kamış-nota-diyafram-parmak-dil-nüans ve disiplin kavramlarının staccato tekniğinde ayrılmaz bir bütün olduğu saptanmıştır. Araştırmada literatür taraması yapılarak staccato ile ilgili çalışmalar taranmıştır. Tarama sonucunda klarnet tekniğin de kullanılan staccato eser çalışmasının az olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Metot taramasında da etüt çalışmasının daha çok olduğu saptanmıştır. Böylelikle klarnetin staccato tekniğini hızlandırma ve güçlendirme çalışmaları sunulmuştur. Staccato etüt çalışmaları yapılırken, araya eser çalışmasının girmesi beyni rahatlattığı ve istekliliği daha arttırdığı gözlemlenmiştir. Staccato çalışmasını yaparken doğru bir kamış seçimi üzerinde de durulmuştur. Staccato tekniğini doğru çalışmak için doğru bir kamışın dil hızını arttırdığı saptanmıştır. Doğru bir kamış seçimi kamıştan rahat ses çıkmasına bağlıdır. Kamış, dil atma gücünü vermiyorsa daha doğru bir kamış seçiminin yapılması gerekliliği vurgulanmıştır. Staccato çalışmalarında baştan sona bir eseri yorumlamak zor olabilir. Bu açıdan çalışma, verilen müzikal nüanslara uymanın, dil atış performansını rahatlattığını ortaya koymuştur. Gelecek nesillere edinilen bilgi ve birikimlerin aktarılması ve geliştirici olması teşvik edilmiştir. Çıkacak eserlerin nasıl çözüleceği, staccato tekniğinin nasıl üstesinden gelinebileceği anlatılmıştır. Staccato tekniğinin daha kısa sürede çözüme kavuşturulması amaç edinilmiştir. Parmakların yerlerini öğrettiğimiz kadar belleğimize de çalışmaların kaydedilmesi önemlidir. Gösterilen azmin ve sabrın sonucu olarak ortaya çıkan yapıt başarıyı daha da yukarı seviyelere çıkaracaktır

    Animating potential for intensities and becoming in writing: challenging discursively constructed structures and writing conventions in academia through the use of storying and other post qualitative inquiries

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    Written for everyone ever denied the opportunity of fulfilling their academic potential, this is ‘Chloe’s story’. Using composite selves, a phrase chosen to indicate multiplicities and movement, to story both the initial event leading to ‘Chloe’s’ immediate withdrawal from a Further Education college and an imaginary second chance to support her whilst at university, this Deleuzo-Guattarian (2015a) ‘assemblage’ of post qualitative inquiries offers challenge to discursively constructed structures and writing conventions in academia. Adopting a posthuman approach to theorising to shift attention towards affects and intensities always relationally in action in multiple ‘assemblages’, these inquiries aim to decentre individual ‘lecturer’ and ‘student’ identities. Illuminating movements and moments quivering with potential for change, then, hoping thereby to generate second chances for all, different approaches to writing are exemplified which trouble those academic constraints by fostering inquiry and speculation: moving away from ‘what is’ towards ‘what if’. With the formatting of this thesis itself also always troubling the rigid Deleuzo-Guattarian (2015a) ‘segmentary lines’ structuring orthodox academic practice, imbricated in these inquiries are attempts to exemplify Manning’s (2015; 2016) ‘artfulness’ through shifts in thinking within and around an emerging PhD thesis. As writing resists organising, the verb thesisising comes into play to describe the processes involved in creating this always-moving thesis. Using ‘landing sites’ (Arakawa and Gins, 2009) as a landscaping device, freely creating emerging ‘lines of flight’ (Deleuze and Guattari, 2015a) so often denied to students forced to adhere to strict academic conventions, this ‘movement-moving’ (Manning, 2014) opens up opportunities for change as in Manning’s (2016) ‘research-creation’. Arguing for a moving away from writing-representing towards writing-inquiring, towards a writing ‘that does’ (Wyatt and Gale, 2018: 127), and toward writing as immanent doing, it is hoped to animate potential for intensities and becoming in writing, offering opportunities and glimmerings of the not-yet-known

    Statistical-dynamical analyses and modelling of multi-scale ocean variability

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    This thesis aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of multi-scale oceanic variabilities using various statistical and dynamical tools and explore the data-driven methods for correct statistical emulation of the oceans. We considered the classical, wind-driven, double-gyre ocean circulation model in quasi-geostrophic approximation and obtained its eddy-resolving solutions in terms of potential vorticity anomaly and geostrophic streamfunctions. The reference solutions possess two asymmetric gyres of opposite circulations and a strong meandering eastward jet separating them with rich eddy activities around it, such as the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic and Kuroshio in the North Pacific. This thesis is divided into two parts. The first part discusses a novel scale-separation method based on the local spatial correlations, called correlation-based decomposition (CBD), and provides a comprehensive analysis of mesoscale eddy forcing. In particular, we analyse the instantaneous and time-lagged interactions between the diagnosed eddy forcing and the evolving large-scale PVA using the novel `product integral' characteristics. The product integral time series uncover robust causality between two drastically different yet interacting flow quantities, termed `eddy backscatter'. We also show data-driven augmentation of non-eddy-resolving ocean models by feeding them the eddy fields to restore the missing eddy-driven features, such as the merging western boundary currents, their eastward extension and low-frequency variabilities of gyres. In the second part, we present a systematic inter-comparison of Linear Regression (LR), stochastic and deep-learning methods to build low-cost reduced-order statistical emulators of the oceans. We obtain the forecasts on seasonal and centennial timescales and assess them for their skill, cost and complexity. We found that the multi-level linear stochastic model performs the best, followed by the ``hybrid stochastically-augmented deep learning models''. The superiority of these methods underscores the importance of incorporating core dynamics, memory effects and model errors for robust emulation of multi-scale dynamical systems, such as the oceans.Open Acces
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