Ratings and rankings: Voodoo or Science?

Composite indicators aggregate a set of variables using weights which are understood to reflect the variables' importance in the index. In this paper we propose to measure the importance of a given variable within existing composite indicators via Karl Pearson's `correlation ratio'; we call this measure `main effect'. Because socio-economic variables are heteroskedastic and correlated, (relative) nominal weights are hardly ever found to match (relative) main effects; we propose to summarize their discrepancy with a divergence measure. We further discuss to what extent the mapping from nominal weights to main effects can be inverted. This analysis is applied to five composite indicators, including the Human Development Index and two popular league tables of university performance. It is found that in many cases the declared importance of single indicators and their main effect are very different, and that the data correlation structure often prevents developers from obtaining the stated importance, even when modifying the nominal weights in the set of nonnegative numbers with unit sum.Comment: 28 pages, 7 figure

Diagnostic Applications for Micro-Synchrophasor Measurements

This report articulates and justifies the preliminary selection of diagnostic applications for data from micro-synchrophasors (µPMUs) in electric power distribution systems that will be further studied and developed within the scope of the three-year ARPA-e award titled Micro-synchrophasors for Distribution Systems

Multiple-Criteria Decision Making

Decision-making on real-world problems, including individual process decisions, requires an appropriate and reliable decision support system. Fuzzy set theory, rough set theory, and neutrosophic set theory, which are MCDM techniques, are useful for modeling complex decision-making problems with imprecise, ambiguous, or vague data.This Special Issue, “Multiple Criteria Decision Making”, aims to incorporate recent developments in the area of the multi-criteria decision-making field. Topics include, but are not limited to:- MCDM optimization in engineering;- Environmental sustainability in engineering processes;- Multi-criteria production and logistics process planning;- New trends in multi-criteria evaluation of sustainable processes;- Multi-criteria decision making in strategic management based on sustainable criteria

Parameter Estimation for PMSM based on a Back Propagation Neural Network Optimized by Chaotic Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm

Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor(PMSM) control system with strong nonlinearity makes it difficult to accurately identify motor parameters such as stator winding, dq axis inductance, and rotor flux linkage. Aiming at the premature convergence of traditional Back Propagation Neural Network(BPNN) in PMSM motor parameter identification, a new method of PMSM motor parameter identification is proposed. It uses Chaotic Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm(CAFSA) to optimize the initial weights and thresholds of BPNN, and then strengthens training by BPNN algorithm. Thus, the global optimal network parameters are obtained by using the global optimization of CAFSA and the local search ability of BPNN. The simulation results and experimental data show that the initial value sensitivity of the network model optimized by CAFS-BPNN Algorithm is weak, the parameter setting is robust, and the system stability is good under complex conditions. Compared with other intelligent algorithms, such as RSL and PSO, CAFS-BPNNA has high identification accuracy and fast convergence speed for PMSM motor parameters

Error propagation metrics from XMI

This work describes the production of an application Error Propagation Metrics from XMI which can extract process and display software design metrics from XMI files. The tool archives these design metrics in a standard XML format defined by a metric document type definition.;XMI is a flavour of XML allowing the description of UML models. As such, the XMI representation of a software design will include information from which a variety of software design metrics can be extracted. These metrics are potentially useful in improving the software design process, either throughout the early stages of design if a suitable XMI-enabled modelling tool is deployed, or to enable the comparison of completed software projects, by extracting design metrics from UML models reverse engineered from the implemented source code.;The tool is able to derive the error propagation of metrics from test XMI files created from UML sequence and state diagrams and from reverse engineered Java source code. However, variation was observed between the XMI representations generated by different software design tools, limiting the ability of the tool to process XMI from all sources. Furthermore, it was noted that subtle differences between UML design representations might have a marked effect on the quality of metrics derived.;In conclusion in order to validate the usefulness of these metrics that can be extracted from XMI files it would be useful to follow well-documented design projects throughout the total design and implementation process. Alternatively, the tool might be used to compare metrics from well-matched design implementations. In either case design metrics will only be of true value to software engineers if they can be associated empirically with a validated measure of system quality

Command & Control: Understanding, Denying and Detecting - A review of malware C2 techniques, detection and defences

In this survey, we first briefly review the current state of cyber attacks, highlighting significant recent changes in how and why such attacks are performed. We then investigate the mechanics of malware command and control (C2) establishment: we provide a comprehensive review of the techniques used by attackers to set up such a channel and to hide its presence from the attacked parties and the security tools they use. We then switch to the defensive side of the problem, and review approaches that have been proposed for the detection and disruption of C2 channels. We also map such techniques to widely-adopted security controls, emphasizing gaps or limitations (and success stories) in current best practices.Comment: Work commissioned by CPNI, available at c2report.org. 38 pages. Listing abstract compressed from version appearing in repor