An empirical learning-based validation procedure for simulation workflow

Simulation workflow is a top-level model for the design and control of simulation process. It connects multiple simulation components with time and interaction restrictions to form a complete simulation system. Before the construction and evaluation of the component models, the validation of upper-layer simulation workflow is of the most importance in a simulation system. However, the methods especially for validating simulation workflow is very limit. Many of the existing validation techniques are domain-dependent with cumbersome questionnaire design and expert scoring. Therefore, this paper present an empirical learning-based validation procedure to implement a semi-automated evaluation for simulation workflow. First, representative features of general simulation workflow and their relations with validation indices are proposed. The calculation process of workflow credibility based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then introduced. In order to make full use of the historical data and implement more efficient validation, four learning algorithms, including back propagation neural network (BPNN), extreme learning machine (ELM), evolving new-neuron (eNFN) and fast incremental gaussian mixture model (FIGMN), are introduced for constructing the empirical relation between the workflow credibility and its features. A case study on a landing-process simulation workflow is established to test the feasibility of the proposed procedure. The experimental results also provide some useful overview of the state-of-the-art learning algorithms on the credibility evaluation of simulation models

Project regularity : development and evaluation of a new project characteristic

The ability to accurately characterize projects is essential to good project management. Therefore, a novel project characteristic is developed that reflects the value accrue within a project. This characteristic, called project regularity, is expressed in terms of the newly introduced regular/irregular-indicator RI. The widely accepted management system of earned value management (EVM) forms the basis for evaluation of the new characteristic. More concretely, the influence of project regularity on EVM forecasting accuracy is assessed, and is shown to be significant for both time and cost forecasting. Moreover, this effect appears to be stronger than that of the widely used characteristic of project seriality expressed by the serial/parallel-indicator SP. Therefore, project regularity could also be useful as an input parameter for project network generators. Furthermore, the introduction of project regularity can provide project managers with a more accurate indication of the time and cost forecasting accuracy that is to be expected for a certain project and, correspondingly, of how a project should be built up in order to obtain more reliable forecasts during project control

An overview of recent research results and future research avenues using simulation studies in project management

This paper gives an overview of three simulation studies in dynamic project scheduling integrating baseline scheduling with risk analysis and project control. This integration is known in the literature as dynamic scheduling. An integrated project control method is presented using a project control simulation approach that combines the three topics into a single decision support system. The method makes use of Monte Carlo simulations and connects schedule risk analysis (SRA) with earned value management (EVM). A corrective action mechanism is added to the simulation model to measure the efficiency of two alternative project control methods. At the end of the paper, a summary of recent and state-of-the-art results is given, and directions for future research based on a new research study are presented

Examining trade-offs between social, psychological, and energy potential of urban form

Urban planners are often challenged with the task of developing design solutions which must meet multiple, and often contradictory, criteria. In this paper, we investigated the trade-offs between social, psychological, and energy potential of the fundamental elements of urban form: the street network and the building massing. Since formal methods to evaluate urban form from the psychological and social point of view are not readily available, we developed a methodological framework to quantify these criteria as the first contribution in this paper. To evaluate the psychological potential, we conducted a three-tiered empirical study starting from real world environments and then abstracting them to virtual environments. In each context, the implicit (physiological) response and explicit (subjective) response of pedestrians were measured. To quantify the social potential, we developed a street network centrality-based measure of social accessibility. For the energy potential, we created an energy model to analyze the impact of pure geometric form on the energy demand of the building stock. The second contribution of this work is a method to identify distinct clusters of urban form and, for each, explore the trade-offs between the select design criteria. We applied this method to two case studies identifying nine types of urban form and their respective potential trade-offs, which are directly applicable for the assessment of strategic decisions regarding urban form during the early planning stages

History and development of validation with the ESP-r simulation program

It is well recognised that validation of dynamic building simulation programs is a long-term complex task. There have been many large national and international efforts that have led to a well-established validation methodology comprising analytical, inter-program comparison and empirical validation elements, and a significant number of tests have been developed. As simulation usage increases, driven by such initiatives as the European Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, such tests are starting to be incorporated into national and international standards. Although many program developers have run many of the developed tests, there does not appear to have been a systematic attempt to incorporate such tests into routine operation of the simulation programs. This paper reports work undertaken to address this deficiency. The paper summarizes the tests that have been applied to the simulation program ESP-r. These tests have been developed within International Energy Agency Annexes, within CEN standards, within various large-scale national projects, and by the UK's Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers. The structure used to encapsulate the tests allows developers to ensure that recent code modifications have not resulted in unforeseen impacts on program predictions, and allows users to check for themselves against benchmarks

An intelligent system for risk classification of stock investment projects

The proposed paper demonstrates that a hybrid fuzzy neural network can serve as a risk classifier of stock investment projects. The training algorithm for the regular part of the network is based on bidirectional incremental evolution proving more efficient than direct evolution. The approach is compared with other crisp and soft investment appraisal and trading techniques, while building a multimodel domain representation for an intelligent decision support system. Thus the advantages of each model are utilised while looking at the investment problem from different perspectives. The empirical results are based on UK companies traded on the London Stock Exchange