Predicting software project effort: A grey relational analysis based method

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Expert Systems with Applications. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2011 Elsevier B.V.The inherent uncertainty of the software development process presents particular challenges for software effort prediction. We need to systematically address missing data values, outlier detection, feature subset selection and the continuous evolution of predictions as the project unfolds, and all of this in the context of data-starvation and noisy data. However, in this paper, we particularly focus on outlier detection, feature subset selection, and effort prediction at an early stage of a project. We propose a novel approach of using grey relational analysis (GRA) from grey system theory (GST), which is a recently developed system engineering theory based on the uncertainty of small samples. In this work we address some of the theoretical challenges in applying GRA to outlier detection, feature subset selection, and effort prediction, and then evaluate our approach on five publicly available industrial data sets using both stepwise regression and Analogy as benchmarks. The results are very encouraging in the sense of being comparable or better than other machine learning techniques and thus indicate that the method has considerable potential.National Natural Science Foundation of Chin

Can k-NN imputation improve the performance of C4.5 with small software project data sets? A comparative evaluation

Missing data is a widespread problem that can affect the ability to use data to construct effective prediction systems. We investigate a common machine learning technique that can tolerate missing values, namely C4.5, to predict cost using six real world software project databases. We analyze the predictive performance after using the k-NN missing data imputation technique to see if it is better to tolerate missing data or to try to impute missing values and then apply the C4.5 algorithm. For the investigation, we simulated three missingness mechanisms, three missing data patterns, and five missing data percentages. We found that the k-NN imputation can improve the prediction accuracy of C4.5. At the same time, both C4.5 and k-NN are little affected by the missingness mechanism, but that the missing data pattern and the missing data percentage have a strong negative impact upon prediction (or imputation) accuracy particularly if the missing data percentage exceeds 40%

Empirically-Grounded Construction of Bug Prediction and Detection Tools

There is an increasing demand on high-quality software as software bugs have an economic impact not only on software projects, but also on national economies in general. Software quality is achieved via the main quality assurance activities of testing and code reviewing. However, these activities are expensive, thus they need to be carried out efficiently. Auxiliary software quality tools such as bug detection and bug prediction tools help developers focus their testing and reviewing activities on the parts of software that more likely contain bugs. However, these tools are far from adoption as mainstream development tools. Previous research points to their inability to adapt to the peculiarities of projects and their high rate of false positives as the main obstacles of their adoption. We propose empirically-grounded analysis to improve the adaptability and efficiency of bug detection and prediction tools. For a bug detector to be efficient, it needs to detect bugs that are conspicuous, frequent, and specific to a software project. We empirically show that the null-related bugs fulfill these criteria and are worth building detectors for. We analyze the null dereferencing problem and find that its root cause lies in methods that return null. We propose an empirical solution to this problem that depends on the wisdom of the crowd. For each API method, we extract the nullability measure that expresses how often the return value of this method is checked against null in the ecosystem of the API. We use nullability to annotate API methods with nullness annotation and warn developers about missing and excessive null checks. For a bug predictor to be efficient, it needs to be optimized as both a machine learning model and a software quality tool. We empirically show how feature selection and hyperparameter optimizations improve prediction accuracy. Then we optimize bug prediction to locate the maximum number of bugs in the minimum amount of code by finding the most cost-effective combination of bug prediction configurations, i.e., dependent variables, machine learning model, and response variable. We show that using both source code and change metrics as dependent variables, applying feature selection on them, then using an optimized Random Forest to predict the number of bugs results in the most cost-effective bug predictor. Throughout this thesis, we show how empirically-grounded analysis helps us achieve efficient bug prediction and detection tools and adapt them to the characteristics of each software project

A novel approach for code smell detection : an empirical study

Code smells detection helps in improving understandability and maintainability of software while reducing the chances of system failure. In this study, six machine learning algorithms have been applied to predict code smells. For this purpose, four code smell datasets (God-class, Data-class, Feature-envy, and Long-method) are considered which are generated from 74 open-source systems. To evaluate the performance of machine learning algorithms on these code smell datasets, 10-fold cross validation technique is applied that predicts the model by partitioning the original dataset into a training set to train the model and test set to evaluate it. Two feature selection techniques are applied to enhance our prediction accuracy. The Chi-squared and Wrapper-based feature selection techniques are used to improve the accuracy of total six machine learning methods by choosing the top metrics in each dataset. Results obtained by applying these two feature selection techniques are compared. To improve the accuracy of these algorithms, grid search-based parameter optimization technique is applied. In this study, 100% accuracy was obtained for the Long-method dataset by using the Logistic Regression algorithm with all features while the worst performance 95.20 % was obtained by Naive Bayes algorithm for the Long-method dataset using the chi-square feature selection technique.publishedVersio