Judgement and supply chain dynamics

Forecasting demand at the individual stock-keeping-unit (SKU) level often necessitates the use of statistical methods, such as exponential smoothing. In some organizations, however, statistical forecasts will be subject to judgemental adjustments by managers. Although a number of empirical and ‘laboratory’ studies have been performed in this area, no formal OR modelling has been conducted to offer insights into the impact such adjustments may have on supply chain performance and the potential development of mitigation mechanisms. This is because of the associated dynamic complexity and the situation-specific nature of the problem at hand. In conjunction with appropriate stock control rules, demand forecasts help decide how much to order. It is a common practice that replenishment orders may also be subject to judgemental intervention, adding further to the dynamic system complexity and interdependence. The system dynamics (SD) modelling method can help advance knowledge in this area, where mathematical modelling cannot accommodate the associated complexity. This study, which constitutes part of a UK government funded (EPSRC) project, uses SD models to evaluate the effects of forecasting and ordering adjustments for a wide set of scenarios involving: three different inventory policies; seven different (combinations of) points of intervention; and four different (combinations of) types of judgmental intervention (optimistic and pessimistic). The results enable insights to be gained into the performance of the entire supply chain. An agenda for further research concludes the paper

International Transmission of Fiscal Shocks: An Empirical Investigation

This paper investigates how innovations in income taxes and government purchases originating in the U.S. affect the U.S. economy, and how these effects are transmitted to the Canadian economy. Using a semi-structural VAR model and data for both countries for the 1961:1-2004:3 period, we find that fiscal policy innovations originating in the U.S. are transmitted to the Canadian economy by international trade and capital flows through interest rate and exchange rate channels. Unanticipated shocks to U.S. government purchases have beggar thy neighbor effects on Canada. U.S. output increases and Canadian output decreases in response to a positive shock to U.S. government purchases. In response to an unanticipated increase in U.S. income taxes, U.S. output declines while U.S. and Canadian real interest rates rise. The response of Canadian output, however, is not significantly different from zero.

Does a thin foreign exchange market lead to destabilizing capital-market speculation in the Asian Crisis countries?

The authors investigate how the thinness of foreign-exchange markets causes destabilization speculation, especially when exchange-rate flexibility is increased, as it has been in the countries involved in the Asian crisis. They analyze the impact of this market thinness on the dynamic capital mobility and capital market risk of four countries involved in the Asian crisis: Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. Using the vector-autoregression model, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition, they show that in response to one-standard-deviation shock to interest and exchange rates, the dynamic capital mobility of all four countries decreases in the short run. These shocks also cause the capital market risk of these countries to rise. Since the onset of the Asian crisis, the countries involved responded by raising their interest rates and devaluing their currencies. These measures were intended to stem capital flight from the borrowing countries and to encourage capital inflows. But in an environment of protracted financial sector reform and thin foreign exchange markets, these standard policies did not stabilize capital inflows into these countries. The authors'research supports the view that because standard policies were unable to change institutional investors'(self-fulfilling) expectations and herding behavior, the countries'policies have, in the short run, not been successful. This failure is in large part attributable to the very thin foreign exchange markets in these Asian countries.Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Banks&Banking Reform,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Capital Markets and Capital Flows,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Macroeconomic Management,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Insurance&Risk Mitigation

Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Agricultural Prices

Existing empirical evidence on the impact of macroeconomic variables on agriculture remains mixed and inconclusive. This paper re-examines the dynamic relationship between monetary policy variables and agricultural prices using alternative vector autoregression (VAR) type model specifications. Directed acyclic graph theory is proposed as an alternative modeling approach to supplement existing modeling methods. Similar to results in other studies, this study’s findings show that over the time period analyzed (1975–2000), changes to money supply as a monetary policy tool had little or no impact on agricultural prices. The primary macroeconomic policy instrument that affects agricultural prices is the exchange rate, which is shown to be directly linked to interest rate, a source of monetary policy shock.agricultural prices, cointegration, directed acyclic graphs, monetary policy, VAR, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis,

Financial Exposure and Productive Performance in French Arable Farms

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between financial exposure and productive performance in agriculture. To this end, Granger's concept of causality and VAR representation are used. Indeed, in spite of several studies, the causality and the direction are not clearly defined. However, investigation of this question can provide with valuable information at policy makers to formulate appropriate credit policies. Using a large micro panel of French farmers over 1994-2001, we find that there is a bidirectional causality running from financial constraints and productive performance. Nevertheless, variance decompositions and impulse response analysis suggest a weak relationship existing between these two variables.actual efficiency

Evaluating the Dynamic Effects of Active Labour Policies in Italy

This paper analyses whether active labour market programmes (ALMP) have differing effects on unemployment and employment dynamics according to the particular region in which they are implemented. To this end, it analyses alternative theoretical and econometric models thought to capture the possible effects of active labour market policies on labour force dynamics. The econometric methodologies implemented are the generalized method of moment (GMM) and the panel vector autoregression (P-VAR). The evidence yielded by the GMM models suggests that the effects of different ALMP on unemployment are dissimilar across the Italian regions. It follows that some active programmes are likely to have a greater effect in the South than in the North. The results of the P-VAR models estimated are synthesised by impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition. The impulse response analysis suggests that an increase in total ALMP gives rise to (i) a decrease in the unemployment rate and (ii) a significant increase in labour force participation. More interestingly, the results obtained from the error variance decomposition analysis show that unemployment movements are not driven by shocks in the ALMP and that, especially in the northern regions, atypical contracts shocks account for a substantial portion of unemployment dynamics.ALMP, GMM, P-VAR

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence

This paper estimates VAR models to examine the response of monetary and fiscal policy to macroeconomic targets, and the interdependence between the two policy instruments. The models are estimated for a number of G7 countries. Our findings show that, whilst monetary and fiscal policy are increasingly used as strategic complements, the responsiveness of fiscal policy to the business cycle has decreased since the 1980s. We also demonstrate that shifts in the strategic interdependence between fiscal and monetary policy can be captured using Bayesian VAR models.

Asymmetric Effects of National-based Active Labour Market Policies

Labour market policies settled at national level imply a “one-size-fits-all” labour market strategy. This strategy might not sufficiently take into account region-specific economic structures. We employ a panel factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) to evaluate whether active labour market programmes (ALMPs) might asymmetrically affect labour markets at regional level in a data-rich environment. The paper focuses on Italian regions. Our results suggest that while in the South employment is mainly driven by social and economic context variables, in the North the employment dynamics is significantly explained by policy interventions. Finally, we suggest two main policy implications. First, the success of active policies depends on the regional labour market conditions. Second, policymakers should adjust labour policy strategy to the regional economic structureActive Labour Market Policies, FAVAR.

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence

This paper estimates VAR models to examine the response of monetary and fiscal policy to macroeconomic targets, and the interdependence between the two policy instruments. The models are estimated for a number of G7 countries. Our findings show that, whilst monetary and fiscal policy are increasingly used as strategic complements, the responsiveness of fiscal policy to the business cycle has decreased since the 1980s. We also demonstrate that shifts in the strategic interdependence between fiscal and monetary policy can be captured using Bayesian VAR models.