Maximum a Posteriori Estimation by Search in Probabilistic Programs

We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with varying number of mutually dependent finite, countable, and continuous random variables. BaMC is an anytime MAP search algorithm applicable to any combination of random variables and dependencies. We compare BaMC to other MAP estimation algorithms and show that BaMC is faster and more robust on a range of probabilistic models.Comment: To appear in proceedings of SOCS1

Learning to Reason: Leveraging Neural Networks for Approximate DNF Counting

Weighted model counting (WMC) has emerged as a prevalent approach for probabilistic inference. In its most general form, WMC is #P-hard. Weighted DNF counting (weighted #DNF) is a special case, where approximations with probabilistic guarantees are obtained in O(nm), where n denotes the number of variables, and m the number of clauses of the input DNF, but this is not scalable in practice. In this paper, we propose a neural model counting approach for weighted #DNF that combines approximate model counting with deep learning, and accurately approximates model counts in linear time when width is bounded. We conduct experiments to validate our method, and show that our model learns and generalizes very well to large-scale #DNF instances.Comment: To appear in Proceedings of the Thirty-Fourth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-20). Code and data available at: https://github.com/ralphabb/NeuralDNF

An approximate empirical Bayesian method for large-scale linear-Gaussian inverse problems

We study Bayesian inference methods for solving linear inverse problems, focusing on hierarchical formulations where the prior or the likelihood function depend on unspecified hyperparameters. In practice, these hyperparameters are often determined via an empirical Bayesian method that maximizes the marginal likelihood function, i.e., the probability density of the data conditional on the hyperparameters. Evaluating the marginal likelihood, however, is computationally challenging for large-scale problems. In this work, we present a method to approximately evaluate marginal likelihood functions, based on a low-rank approximation of the update from the prior covariance to the posterior covariance. We show that this approximation is optimal in a minimax sense. Moreover, we provide an efficient algorithm to implement the proposed method, based on a combination of the randomized SVD and a spectral approximation method to compute square roots of the prior covariance matrix. Several numerical examples demonstrate good performance of the proposed method