ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration

Computer and Internet use, especially in developing countries, has expanded rapidly in recent years. Even in light of this expansion in technology adoption rates, penetration rates differ markedly between developed and developing countries and across developing countries. To identify the determinants of cross-country disparities in personal computer and Internet penetration, both currently and over time, we examine panel data for 161 countries over the 1999-2004 period. We explore the role of a comprehensive set of economic, demographic, infrastructure, institutional and financial factors in contributing to the global digital divide. We find evidence indicating that income, human capital, the youth dependency ratio, telephone density, legal quality and banking sector development are associated with technology penetration rates. Overall, the factors associated with computer and Internet penetration do not differ substantially between developed and developing countries. Estimates from Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions reveal that the main factors responsible for low rates of technology penetration rates in developing countries are disparities in income, telephone density, legal quality and human capital. In terms of dynamics, our results indicate fairly rapid reversion to long run equilibrium for Internet use, and somewhat slower reversion for computer use, particularly in developed economies. Financial development, either measured as bank lending or the value of stocks traded, is also important to the growth rate of Internet use.

Determinants of Inter-Country Internet Diffusion Rates

This paper employs cross-sectional data from 100 countries to analyze the main determinants of inter-country Internet diffusion rates. We set up an empirical model based on strong theoretical foundations, in which we regress Internet usage on variables that capture social, economic and political differences between these countries. Our results support past findings that economic strength, infrastructure and knowledge of the English language positively affect Internet connectivity. In addition to these indicators, the openness of a country, tertiary enrollment, and income equality are found to also have a significant positive effect on Internet diffusion.internet, technological diffusion, inequality, education, English proficiency

The Determinants of the Global Digital Divide: A Cross-Country Analysis of Computer and Internet Penetration

To identify the determinants of cross-country disparities in personal computer and Internet penetration, we examine a panel of 161 countries over the 1999-2001 period. Our candidate variables include economic variables (income per capita, years of schooling, illiteracy, trade openness), demographic variables (youth and aged dependency ratios, urbanization rate), infrastructure indicators (telephone density, electricity consumption), telecommunications pricing measures, and regulatory quality. With the exception of trade openness and the telecom pricing measures, these variables enter in as statistically significant in most specifications for computer use. A similar pattern holds true for Internet use, except that telephone density and aged dependency matter less. The global digital divide is mainly but by no means entirely accounted for by income differentials. For computers, telephone density and regulatory quality are of second and third importance, while for the Internet, this ordering is reversed. The region-specific explanations for large disparities in computer and Internet penetration are generally very similar. Our results suggest that public investment in human capital, telecommunications infrastructure, and the regulatory infrastructure can mitigate the gap in PC and Internet use.

Modelling global diffusion.

This paper presents a general model of global diffusion processes. The approach recognizes 'breadth' and 'depth' of adoption by first considering the sequential introduction of the innovation across countries (breadth). Given the time of introduction into a specific country, within-country diffusion (depth) is subsequently modelled. We illustrate the approach using data from the cellular telephone industry for 184countries. The proposed provides empirical insights which could not have been obtained using traditional techniques. In particular, we show that breadth and depth processes are not necessarily affected by the same socioeconomic factors. We also are able to evaluate the importance of the linkage between the two processes.

The Determinants of the Global Digital Divide A Cross-Country Analysis of Computer and Internet Penetration

To identify the determinants of cross-country disparities in personal computer and Internet penetration, we examine a panel of 161 countries over the 1999-2001 period. Our candidate variables include economic variables (income per capita, years of schooling, illiteracy, trade openness), demographic variables (youth and aged dependency ratios, urbanization rate), infrastructure indicators (telephone density, electricity consumption), telecommunications pricing measures, and regulatory quality. With the exception of trade openness and the telecom pricing measures, these variables enter in as statistically significant in most specifications for computer use. A similar pattern holds true for Internet use, except that telephone density and aged dependency matter less. The global digital divide is mainly -– but by no means entirely -– accounted for by income differentials. For computers, telephone density and regulatory quality are of second and third importance, while for the Internet, this ordering is reversed. The region-specific explanations for large disparities in computer and Internet penetration are generally very similar. Our results suggest that public investment in human capital, telecommunications infrastructure, and the regulatory infrastructure can mitigate the gap in PC and Internet use.Computers, Internet, Digital Divide, Infrastructure, Pricing, Regulation

Economic determinants of global mobile telephony growth

This study examines the substitution effect between fixed-line and mobile telephony while controlling for the consumption externality associated with telephone networks. A dynamic demand model is estimated using a global telecommunications panel dataset comprised of 56 countries from 1995–2000. Estimation results show the presence of a substantial substitution effect. Additionally income and own-price elasticities are reported. Analysis of impulse responses for price, income and network size indicate substantial mobile telephone growth is yet to be realised. However, price ceilings imposed in the fixed-line network can retard the growth of the mobile network.

Abstracts : Policy Research working paper series - numbers 2857 - 2882

This paper contains abstracts of Policy Research Working Paper series, numbers 2857 - 2882Banks&Banking Reform,ICT Policy and Strategies,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Economics&Finance,Economic Theory&Research

Policy reform, economic growth, and the digital divide - an econometric analysis

Rapid growth of Internet use in high-income economies, has raised the specter of a"digital divide"that will marginalize developing countries, because they can neither afford Internet access, nor use it effectively when it is available. Using a new cross-country data set, the authors investigate two proximate determinants of the digital divide: Internet intensity (Internet subscriptions per telephones mainline), and access to telecom services. Surprisingly, they find no gap in Internet intensity. When differences in urbanization, and competition policy are controlled for, low-income countries have intensities as high as those of industrial countries. While income does not seem to matter in this context, competition policy matters a great deal. Low-income countries with high World Bank ratings for competition policy, have significantly higher Internet intensities. The authors'findings on Internet intensity implies that the digital divide is not really new, but reflects a persistent gap in the availability of mainline telephones services. After identifying mobile telephones as a promising new platform for Internet access, they use panel data to study the determinants of mobile telephone diffusion during the past decade. Their results show that income explains part of the diffusion lag for poor countries, but they also highlight the critical role of policy. Developing countries whose policies promote economic growth, and private sector competition, have experienced much more rapid diffusion of mobile telephone services. Simulations based on the econometric results, suggest that feasible reforms could sharply narrow the digital divide during the next decade for many countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The authors'review of the literature, also suggests that direct access promotion would yield substantial benefits for poor households, and that cost-effective intervention strategies are now available.ICT Policy and Strategies,Knowledge Economy,Education for the Knowledge Economy,Health Economics&Finance,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Usage and Diffusion of Cellular Telephony, 1998-2004

In this paper, we study the dynamics of usage intensity of second-generation cellular telephony over the diffusion curve. We address two specific questions: First, does information about usage intensity over time allow us to draw conclusions about the underlying drivers of technology diffusion? Seconds, what effect does the existence and penetration of previous generations and other networks in the same generation on network usage intensity? Using an operator-level panel covering 41 countries with quarterly data over 6 years, we find that heterogeneity among adopters dominates network effects and that different technological generations are complements in terms of usage, but substitutes in terms of subscription. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Gebrauch und Infusion von Mobilfunktelefonie, 1998-2004) In diesem Beitrag untersuchen wir die Dynamik der Gebrauchsintensität von Mobilfunktelekommunikation zweiter Generation (D-Netzwerk in Deutschland) in verschiedenen Phasen ihrer Marktdiffusion. Wir stellen zwei spezifische Fragen: Erstens, kann man an Hand der Informationen über die Gebrauchsintensität die zugrundeliegenden Treiber der Technologiediffusion identifizieren? Zweitens, welche Auswirkung haben die Existenz und die Marktdurchdringung der vorherigen Generationen und andere Netzwerke derselben Generation auf die Gebrauchsintensität eines Mobilfunknetzwerks? Mittels der Paneldaten auf Netzwerkbetreiberebene, die 41 Nationen vierteljährlich über 6 Jahre umspannen, finden wir, dass die Abonnentenheterogenität die Netzwerkeffekte dominiert. Außerdem stellt sich heraus, dass die unterschiedlichen Technologiegenerationen bezüglich der Gebrauchsintensität komplementär zueinander sind, jedoch bezüglich ihrer Subskription Substituten darstellen.Cellular telephony, diffusion, network effects, consumer heterogeneity, fixed-mobile substitutability