Schelling, von Neumann, and the Event that Didn’t Occur

Thomas Schelling was recognized by the Nobel Prize committee as a pioneer in the application of game theory and rational choice analysis to problems of politics and international relations. However, although he makes frequent references in his writings to this approach, his main explorations and insights depend upon and require acknowledgment of its limitations. One of his principal concerns was how a country could engage in successful deterrence. If the behavioral assumptions that commonly underpin game theory are taken seriously and applied consistently, however, nuclear adversaries are almost certain to engage in devastating conflict, as John von Neumann forcefully asserted. The history of the last half century falsified von Neumann’s prediction, and the “event that didn’t occur” formed the subject of Schelling’s Nobel lecture. The answer to the question “why?” is the central concern of this paper

Managing Non-Homogeneous Information and Experts’ Psychological Behavior in Group Emergency Decision Making

After an emergency event (EE) happens, emergency decision making (EDM) is a common and effective way to deal with the emergency situation, which plays an important role in mitigating its level of harm. In the real world, it is a big challenge for an individual emergency manager (EM) to make a proper and comprehensive decision for coping with an EE. Consequently, many practical EDM problems drive group emergency decision making (GEDM) problems whose main limitations are related to the lack of flexibility in knowledge elicitation, disagreements in the group and the consideration of experts’ psychological behavior in the decision process. Hence, this paper proposes a novel GEDM approach that allows more flexibility for preference elicitation under uncertainty, provides a consensus process to avoid disagreements and considers experts’ psychological behavior by using the fuzzy TODIM method based on prospect theory. Eventually, a group decision support system (GDSS) is developed to support the whole GEDM process defined in the proposed method demonstrating its novelty, validity and feasibility.This work was partly supported by the Young Doctoral Dissertation Project of Social Science Planning Project of Fujian Province (Project No. FJ2016C202), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project Nos. 71371053, 61773123), Spanish National Research Project (Project No. TIN2015-66524-P), and Spanish Ministry of Economy and Finance Postdoctoral Fellow (IJCI-2015-23715) and ERDF

Regulation for Conservatives: Behavioral Economics and the Case for "Asymmetric Paternalism"

Regulation by the state can take a variety of forms. Some regulations are aimed entirely at redistribution, such as when we tax the rich and give to the poor. Other regulations seek to counteract externalities by restricting behavior in a way that imposes harm on an individual basis but yields net societal benefits. A good example is taxation to fund public goods such as roads. In such situations, an individual would be better off if she alone were exempt from the tax; she benefits when everyone (including herself) must pay the tax

Public Opinion behind the Deterrence: An Evolutionary Game Theoretic Study of the Israeli Policy towards Lebanon

Israel’s policies regarding Lebanon have been dependent on public opinion, which is very volatile. The citizens of Israel did not favor the occupation of the security zone in South Lebanon because of the Four Mothers movement, and it influenced the government to withdraw military forces unilaterally in May 2000. When Hizbollah attacked the Israel Defense Force (IDF) patrol and abducted two soldiers on the northern border, the Israeli citizens supported the government’s decision of waging a war in retaliation. This study aims to shed light on the causal mechanism of the influence of public opinion on the defense policy in the rational framework of deterrence strategy. I chose the evolutionary game theory approach as my research method. My study yielded the following result: the deterrence is not stable when the aggression level of the defenders is less than the level of the critical condition. The Israeli government made a decision to conduct unilateral withdrawal under the pressure of passive defenders among the people. However, the IDF could begin the operation in Lebanon because of a substantial number of supporters who hoped to restore the deterrence. This study concludes that the Israelis exhibited strong intension and an aggressive attitude toward the deterrence.Deterrence, Evolutionary Game Theory, Second Lebanon War, Israel, Hizbollah

Checks and balances: an assessment of the institutional separation of political powers in Colombia

In this paper, we evaluate the institutional and legal structure of the Colombian government. In particular, we want to assess how a system of institutional checks and balances can be structured to promote the rule of law, preserve property rights, and stimulate economic growth. The 1991 Constitution indeed makes commendable commitments to these objectives. Yet, due to its institutional structure, Colombia is governed in a manner that is both unchecked and unbalanced. The Colombian Constitution is an enormously long document that attempts to reassure all parties that the future will be to their liking. For example, Article 58, which permits uncompensated expropriation for reasons of “equity”, might be a substantial deterrent to investment. The nation’s long run economic health may be seriously impaired if peace is bought at the price of widespread concessions with regard to either the process of decision-making about the economy or to the specific content of future government economic policies. One may buy transitory tranquility, which may not translate in to lasting peace, at the price of long-term instability and turmoil. We make recommendations for institutional reform, which aim to mitigate clientelist and populist trends in Colombian politics. To enhance policymaking by reducing the scope for gridlock, we propose measures such as long-term appointments and ballot accountability that eliminate distortions to the voting incentives of both judges and lawmakers. Also, procedures are set forth to limit undue deliberations by the judiciary and to induce institutional status-quo bias. While we support constitutional provisions for the stability of a political process endowed with representativeness, we reject constitutional provisions that attempt to entrench one particular policy outcome. Stationary policy is likely to be both suboptimal and unsustainable in a stochastic and dynamic environment

Dynamic reference point method with probabilistic linguistic information based on the regret theory for public health emergency decision-making

Group emergency decision-making is an uncertain and dynamic process, in which the decision makers may be bounded rational and have a risk appetite. To depict the vague qualitative assessments, the probabilistic linguistic term sets are employed to express the perceptions of decision makers. First, considering the regret-aversion of the decision makers’ psychological characteristic, the value function and the regret-rejoice function in the regret theory are modified to adapt the probabilistic linguistic information. Second, the definition and aggregation operators of the probabilistic linguistic time variable are proposed to describe and aggregate the dynamic decision information. Third, the probabilistic linguistic models based on the dynamic reference point method and the regret theory are studied to maximise the expectation-levels of alternatives at the relative time point. The proposed method is applied to select the optimal response strategy for the outbreak of COVID-19 in China. Finally, the comparative analysis is designed to verify the applicability and reasonability of the proposed method

A Multi-Attribute decision support system for allocation of humanitarian cluster resources , based on decision makers’ perspective

The rush of the humanitarian suppliers into the disaster area proved to be counter-productive. To reduce this proliferation problem, the present research is designed to provide a technique for supplier ranking/selection in disaster response using the principles of utility theory. A resource allocation problem is solved using optimisation based on decision maker’s preferences. Due to the lack of real-time data in the first 72 h after the disaster strike, a Decision Support System (DSS) framework called EDIS is introduced to employ secondary historical data from disaster response in four humanitarian clusters (WASH: Water, Sanitation and Hygiene, Nutrition, Health, and Shelter) to estimate the demand of the affected population. A methodology based on multi-attribute decision-making (MADM), Analytical Hierarchy processing (AHP) and Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) provides the following results. First a need estimation technique is put forward to estimate minimum standard requirements for disaster response. Second, a method for optimization of the humanitarian partners selection is provided based on the resources they have available during the response phase. Third, an estimate of resource allocation is provided based on the preferences of the decision makers. This method does not require real-time data from the aftermath of the disasters and provides the need estimation, partner selection and resource allocation based on historical data before the MIRA report is released

Choices: an exploratory study of the decision-making behaviors of school superintendents

Ed. D.--University of Oklahoma, 2016Includes bibliographical references (leaves 161-171).Decision-making practices of school superintendents have previously been studied in the context of decision-making in response to a program or initiative, identifying decision-making styles, and ethical decision-making. Administrative mindfulness provides the construct to explore the cognitive mindset of superintendents as they make decisions. Prospect theory provides the conceptual framework to explore the process used by superintendents as they frame decisions, determine reference points, and evaluate options based on those reference points. The qualitative research design of this study employed semi-structured interviews as the primary method of data collection. Cross-case analysis was used to highlight variations in the data and to identify patterns within the data. Findings in the study referenced the substantial influence deferring to experts by superintendents played during their decision-making as they gathered information about a dilemma, determined their reference points, and evaluated options. Each school superintendent in the study provided definitive cognitive processes used in his decision making reflecting attributes of administrative mindfulness. When discussing a decision of regret, each subject identified an absence of at least one attribute of administrative mindfulness. Reference points, in the decision-making processes of superintendents, were discovered to be value-laden and unique to the superintendent rather than being quantifiable as situated in behavioral economics. However, reference points in both superintendent decision-making and behavioral economics provide a tool for evaluating various options and assessing risk. The study concluded that the overlay of administrative mindfulness on a school superintendent's decision-making process provides multiple opportunities to enhance decision-making. Those improvements to the decision-making processes are dependent upon the management of a superintendent's ego, a commitment to deferring to experts, and cognitive effort on the part of the superintendent to seek improvements in his decision-making practices

PREdictive model for DISaster response configuration (PREDIS decision platform)

This thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University LondonThe extraordinary conditions of a disaster, require the mobilisation of all available resources, inducing the rush of humanitarian partners into the affected area. This phenomenon called the proliferation of actors, causes serious problems during the disaster response phase including the oversupply, duplicated efforts, lack of planning. The aim of this research is to provide a solution to reduce the partner proliferation problem. To that end the main research question is put forward as “How to reduce the proliferation of partners in a disaster response”? Panel analysis of the historic record of 4,252 natural onset disasters between 1980 to 2013 via regression analysis, MA and AHP gives rise to the formation of a predictive decision-making platform called PREDIS. It is capable of predicting the human impact of the disaster (fatality, injured, homeless) of up to 3% of errors and enables the decision makers to estimate the required needs for each disaster and prioritises them based on the disaster type and socio-economics of the affected country. It further renders it possible to rank and optimise the desired partners based on the decision maker’s preferences. Verification of the PREDIS through a simulation game design using a sample group of decision makers, show that this technique enables the user to decide within one hour after the disaster strike using the widely available data at the time of the disaster. It also enables non-experts to decide almost identically to experts in terms of the similarity of the choices and the speed of the decision.The lack of an extensive database for the potential humanitarian partners from which to choose, is the limitation of this research in addition to the lack of standardised set of minimum requirements for the suitable partners.The model is also as strong as its data feed which is inconsistent in various humanitarian sources