Designing a Novel Model for Stock Price Prediction Using an Integrated Multi-Stage Structure: The Case of the Bombay Stock Exchange

Stock price prediction is considered a strategic and challenging issue in the stock markets. Considering the complexity of stock market data and price fluctuations, the improvement of effective approaches for stock price prediction is a crucial and essential task. Therefore, in this study, a new model based on “Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA)” is employed to predict stock price accurately. ANFIS has been utilized to predict stock price trends more precisely. PSO executes towards developing the vector, and GA has been utilized to adjust the decision vectors employing genetic operators. The stock price data of top companies of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) from 2010 to 2020 are employed to analyze the model functionality. Experimental outcomes demonstrated that the average functionality of our model (77.62%) was achieved noticeably better than other methods. The findings verified that the ANFIS-PSO-GA model is an efficient tool in stock price prediction which can be applied in the different financial markets, especially the stock market

Designing a Novel Model for Stock Price Prediction Using an Integrated Multi-Stage Structure: The Case of the Bombay Stock Exchange

Keywords: Stock Price Prediction, Technical Analysis, ANFIS, PSO, GA Stock price prediction is considered a strategic and challenging issue in the stock markets. Considering the complexity of stock market data and price fluctuations, the improvement of effective approaches for stock price prediction is a crucial and essential task. Therefore, in this study, a new model based on “Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA)” is employed to predict stock price accurately. ANFIS has been utilized to predict stock price trends more precisely. PSO executes towards developing the vector, and GA has been utilized to adjust the decision vectors employing genetic operators. The stock price data of top companies of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) from 2010 to 2020 are employed to analyze the model functionality. Experimental outcomes demonstrated that the average functionality of our model (77.62%) was achieved noticeably better than other methods. The findings verified that the ANFIS-PSO-GA model is an efficient tool in stock price prediction which can be applied in the different financial markets, especially the stock market

Fuzzy Logic and Its Uses in Finance: A Systematic Review Exploring Its Potential to Deal with Banking Crises

The major success of fuzzy logic in the field of remote control opened the door to its application in many other fields, including finance. However, there has not been an updated and comprehensive literature review on the uses of fuzzy logic in the financial field. For that reason, this study attempts to critically examine fuzzy logic as an effective, useful method to be applied to financial research and, particularly, to the management of banking crises. The data sources were Web of Science and Scopus, followed by an assessment of the records according to pre-established criteria and an arrangement of the information in two main axes: financial markets and corporate finance. A major finding of this analysis is that fuzzy logic has not yet been used to address banking crises or as an alternative to ensure the resolvability of banks while minimizing the impact on the real economy. Therefore, we consider this article relevant for supervisory and regulatory bodies, as well as for banks and academic researchers, since it opens the door to several new research axes on banking crisis analyses using artificial intelligence techniques

Soft computing techniques applied to finance

Soft computing is progressively gaining presence in the financial world. The number of real and potential applications is very large and, accordingly, so is the presence of applied research papers in the literature. The aim of this paper is both to present relevant application areas, and to serve as an introduction to the subject. This paper provides arguments that justify the growing interest in these techniques among the financial community and introduces domains of application such as stock and currency market prediction, trading, portfolio management, credit scoring or financial distress prediction areas.Publicad

Soft Computing Techniques for Stock Market Prediction: A Literature Survey

Stock market trading is an unending investment exercise globally. It has potentials to generate high returns on investors’ investment. However, it is characterized by high risk of investment hence, having knowledge and ability to predict stock price or market movement is invaluable to investors in the stock market. Over the years, several soft computing techniques have been used to analyze various stock markets to retrieve knowledge to guide investors on when to buy or sell. This paper surveys over 100 published articles that focus on the application of soft computing techniques to forecast stock markets. The aim of this paper is to present a coherent of information on various soft computing techniques employed for stock market prediction. This research work will enable researchers in this field to know the current trend as well as help to inform their future research efforts. From the surveyed articles, it is evident that researchers have firmly focused on the development of hybrid prediction models and substantial work has also been done on the use of social media data for stock market prediction. It is also revealing that most studies have focused on the prediction of stock prices in emerging market

A Technique to Stock Market Prediction Using Fuzzy Clustering and Artificial Neural Networks

Stock market prediction is essential and of great interest because successful prediction of stock prices may promise smart benefits. These tasks are highly complicated and very difficult. Many researchers have made valiant attempts in data mining to devise an efficient system for stock market movement analysis. In this paper, we have developed an efficient approach to stock market prediction by employing fuzzy C-means clustering and artificial neural network. This research has been encouraged by the need of predicting the stock market to facilitate the investors about buy and hold strategy and to make profit. Firstly, the original stock market data are converted into interpreted historical (financial) data i.e. via technical indicators. Based on these technical indicators, datasets that are required for analysis are created. Subsequently, fuzzy-clustering technique is used to generate different training subsets. Subsequently, based on different training subsets, different ANN models are trained to formulate different base models. Finally, a meta-learner, fuzzy system module, is employed to predict the stock price. The results for the stock market prediction are validated through evaluation metrics, namely mean absolute deviation, mean square error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error used to estimate the forecasting accuracy in the stock market. Comparative analysis is carried out for single Neural Network (NN) and existing technique neural. The obtained results show that the proposed approach produces better results than the other techniques in terms of accuracy

Multivariate Inputs on a MIMO Neuro-Fuzzy structure with LMA training. A study case: Indonesian Banking Stock Market

The paper describes the design and implementation of the multivariate inputs of multi-input-multi-output neuro-fuzzy with Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm training (MIMO neuro-fuzzy with accelerated LMA) to forecast stock market of Indonesian Banking. The accelerated LMA is efficient in the sense that it can bring the performance index of the network, such as the root mean squared error (RMSE), down to the desired error goal, more efficiently than the standard Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The MIMO neuro-fuzzy method is a hybrid intelligent system which combines the human-like reasoning style of fuzzy systems with the learning ability of neural nets. The main advantages of a MIMO neuro-fuzzy system are: it interprets IF-THEN rules from input-output relations and focuses on accuracy of the output network and offers efficient time consumption for on-line computation. The proposed architectures of this paper are a MIMO-neuro-fuzzy structure with multivariate input such as fundamental quantities as inputs network (High, Low, Open and Close) and a MIMO-neuro-fuzzy structure with other multivariate inputs, which is a combination inputs between two fundamental quantities (High and Low) and two inputs from technical indicator Exponential Moving Average (EMA High and EMA Low). Both proposed learning procedures, which are using accelerated LMA with optimal training parameters with at least one million iterations with different 16 membership functions, employ 12% of the input-output correspondences from the known input-output dataset. For experimental database, both structures are trained using the seven-year period (training data from 2 Oct 2006 to 28 Sept 2012) and tested using two-weeks period of the stock price index (prediction data from 1 Oct 2012 to 16 Oct 2012) and the proposed models are evaluated with a performance indicator, root mean squared error (RMSE) for mid-term forecasting application. The simulation results show that the MIMO-neuro-fuzzy structure with combination of fundamental quantities and technical indicators has better performance (RMSE) for two-weeks forecast. Key words: MIMO neuro-fuzzy; accelerated Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm; multivariate inputs, fundamental quantities; technical indicator

The development of hybrid intelligent systems for technical analysis based equivolume charting

This dissertation proposes the development of a hybrid intelligent system applied to technical analysis based equivolume charting for stock trading. A Neuro-Fuzzy based Genetic Algorithms (NF-GA) system of the Volume Adjusted Moving Average (VAMA) membership functions is introduced to evaluate the effectiveness of using a hybrid intelligent system that integrates neural networks, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms techniques for increasing the efficiency of technical analysis based equivolume charting for trading stocks --Introduction, page 1

Fruit production forecasting by neuro-fuzzy techniques

Neuro-fuzzy techniques are finding a practical application in many fields such as in model identification and forecasting of linear and non-linear systems. This paper presents a neuro-fuzzy model for forecasting the fruit production of some agriculture products (olives, lemons, oranges, cherries and pistachios). The model utilizes a time series of yearly data. The fruit forecasting is based on Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). ANFIS uses a combination of the least-squares method and the backprobagation gradient descent method to estimate the optimal food forecast parameters for each year. The results are compared to those of an Autoregressive (AR) model and an Autoregressive Moving Average model (ARMA).Fruit forecasting, neuro-fuzzy, ANFIS, AR, ARMA, forecasting, fruit production, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries,