Modeling Taxi Drivers' Behaviour for the Next Destination Prediction

In this paper, we study how to model taxi drivers' behaviour and geographical information for an interesting and challenging task: the next destination prediction in a taxi journey. Predicting the next location is a well studied problem in human mobility, which finds several applications in real-world scenarios, from optimizing the efficiency of electronic dispatching systems to predicting and reducing the traffic jam. This task is normally modeled as a multiclass classification problem, where the goal is to select, among a set of already known locations, the next taxi destination. We present a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) approach that models the taxi drivers' behaviour and encodes the semantics of visited locations by using geographical information from Location-Based Social Networks (LBSNs). In particular, RNNs are trained to predict the exact coordinates of the next destination, overcoming the problem of producing, in output, a limited set of locations, seen during the training phase. The proposed approach was tested on the ECML/PKDD Discovery Challenge 2015 dataset - based on the city of Porto -, obtaining better results with respect to the competition winner, whilst using less information, and on Manhattan and San Francisco datasets.Comment: preprint version of a paper submitted to IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation System

Pedestrian Prediction by Planning using Deep Neural Networks

Accurate traffic participant prediction is the prerequisite for collision avoidance of autonomous vehicles. In this work, we predict pedestrians by emulating their own motion planning. From online observations, we infer a mixture density function for possible destinations. We use this result as the goal states of a planning stage that performs motion prediction based on common behavior patterns. The entire system is modeled as one monolithic neural network and trained via inverse reinforcement learning. Experimental validation on real world data shows the system's ability to predict both, destinations and trajectories accurately

A new splitting-based displacement prediction approach for location-based services

In location-based services (LBSs), the service is provided based on the users' locations through location determination and mobility realization. Several location prediction models have been proposed to enhance and increase the relevance of the information retrieved by users of mobile information systems, but none of them studied the relationship between accuracy rate of prediction and the performance of the model in terms of consuming resources and constraints of mobile devices. Most of the current location prediction research is focused on generalized location models, where the geographic extent is divided into regular-shape cells. These models are not suitable for certain LBSs where the objectives are to compute and present on-road services. One such technique is the Prediction Location Model (PLM), which deals with inner cell structure. The PLM technique suffers from memory usage and poor accuracy. The main goal of this paper is to propose a new path prediction technique for Location-Based Services. The new approach is competitive and more efficient compared to PLM regarding measurements such as accuracy rate of location prediction and memory usage

A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization of Expensive Cost Functions, with Application to Active User Modeling and Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

We present a tutorial on Bayesian optimization, a method of finding the maximum of expensive cost functions. Bayesian optimization employs the Bayesian technique of setting a prior over the objective function and combining it with evidence to get a posterior function. This permits a utility-based selection of the next observation to make on the objective function, which must take into account both exploration (sampling from areas of high uncertainty) and exploitation (sampling areas likely to offer improvement over the current best observation). We also present two detailed extensions of Bayesian optimization, with experiments---active user modelling with preferences, and hierarchical reinforcement learning---and a discussion of the pros and cons of Bayesian optimization based on our experiences

Contextual Human Trajectory Forecasting within Indoor Environments and Its Applications

A human trajectory is the likely path a human subject would take to get to a destination. Human trajectory forecasting algorithms try to estimate or predict this path. Such algorithms have wide applications in robotics, computer vision and video surveillance. Understanding the human behavior can provide useful information towards the design of these algorithms. Human trajectory forecasting algorithm is an interesting problem because the outcome is influenced by many factors, of which we believe that the destination, geometry of the environment, and the humans in it play a significant role. In addressing this problem, we propose a model to estimate the occupancy behavior of humans based on the geometry and behavioral norms. We also develop a trajectory forecasting algorithm that understands this occupancy and leverages it for trajectory forecasting in previously unseen geometries. The algorithm can be useful in a variety of applications. In this work, we show its utility in three applications, namely person re-identification, camera placement optimization, and human tracking. Experiments were performed with real world data and compared to state-of-the-art methods to assess the quality of the forecasting algorithm and the enhancement in the quality of the applications. Results obtained suggests a significant enhancement in the accuracy of trajectory forecasting and the computer vision applications.Computer Science, Department o

Location-Quality-aware Policy Optimisation for Relay Selection in Mobile Networks

Relaying can improve the coverage and performance of wireless access networks. In presence of a localisation system at the mobile nodes, the use of such location estimates for relay node selection can be advantageous as such information can be collected by access points in linear effort with respect to number of mobile nodes (while the number of links grows quadratically). However, the localisation error and the chosen update rate of location information in conjunction with the mobility model affect the performance of such location-based relay schemes; these parameters also need to be taken into account in the design of optimal policies. This paper develops a Markov model that can capture the joint impact of localisation errors and inaccuracies of location information due to forwarding delays and mobility; the Markov model is used to develop algorithms to determine optimal location-based relay policies that take the aforementioned factors into account. The model is subsequently used to analyse the impact of deployment parameter choices on the performance of location-based relaying in WLAN scenarios with free-space propagation conditions and in an measurement-based indoor office scenario.Comment: Accepted for publication in ACM/Springer Wireless Network