Distributed Verification of Rare Properties using Importance Splitting Observers

Rare properties remain a challenge for statistical model checking (SMC) due to the quadratic scaling of variance with rarity. We address this with a variance reduction framework based on lightweight importance splitting observers. These expose the model-property automaton to allow the construction of score functions for high performance algorithms. The confidence intervals defined for importance splitting make it appealing for SMC, but optimising its performance in the standard way makes distribution inefficient. We show how it is possible to achieve equivalently good results in less time by distributing simpler algorithms. We first explore the challenges posed by importance splitting and present an algorithm optimised for distribution. We then define a specific bounded time logic that is compiled into memory-efficient observers to monitor executions. Finally, we demonstrate our framework on a number of challenging case studies

Fast Non-Parametric Bayesian Inference on Infinite Trees

Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent granularity. A Bayesian would assign a data-independent prior probability to "subdivide", which leads to a prior over infinite(ly many) trees. We derive an exact, fast, and simple inference algorithm for such a prior, for the data evidence, the predictive distribution, the effective model dimension, and other quantities.Comment: 8 twocolumn pages, 3 figure

A statistical learning based approach for parameter fine-tuning of metaheuristics

Metaheuristics are approximation methods used to solve combinatorial optimization problems. Their performance usually depends on a set of parameters that need to be adjusted. The selection of appropriate parameter values causes a loss of efficiency, as it requires time, and advanced analytical and problem-specific skills. This paper provides an overview of the principal approaches to tackle the Parameter Setting Problem, focusing on the statistical procedures employed so far by the scientific community. In addition, a novel methodology is proposed, which is tested using an already existing algorithm for solving the Multi-Depot Vehicle Routing Problem.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Exact Non-Parametric Bayesian Inference on Infinite Trees

Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent granularity. A Bayesian would assign a data-independent prior probability to "subdivide", which leads to a prior over infinite(ly many) trees. We derive an exact, fast, and simple inference algorithm for such a prior, for the data evidence, the predictive distribution, the effective model dimension, moments, and other quantities. We prove asymptotic convergence and consistency results, and illustrate the behavior of our model on some prototypical functions.Comment: 32 LaTeX pages, 9 figures, 5 theorems, 1 algorith

Fast non-parametric Bayesian inference on infinite trees

Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent granularity. A Bayesian would assign a data-independent prior probability to "subdivide", which leads to a prior over infinite(ly many) trees. We derive an exact, fast, and simple inference algorithm for such a prior, for the data evidence, the predictive distribution, the effective model dimension, and other quantities

Particle algorithms for optimization on binary spaces

We discuss a unified approach to stochastic optimization of pseudo-Boolean objective functions based on particle methods, including the cross-entropy method and simulated annealing as special cases. We point out the need for auxiliary sampling distributions, that is parametric families on binary spaces, which are able to reproduce complex dependency structures, and illustrate their usefulness in our numerical experiments. We provide numerical evidence that particle-driven optimization algorithms based on parametric families yield superior results on strongly multi-modal optimization problems while local search heuristics outperform them on easier problems