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A quantitative narrative on movement, disease and patch exploitation in nesting agent groups
Abstract Animal relocation data has recently become considerably more ubiquitous, finely structured (collection frequencies measured in minutes) and co-variate rich (physiology of individuals, environmental and landscape information, and accelerometer data). To better understand the impacts of ecological interactions, individual movement and disease on global change ecology, including wildlife management and conservation, it is important to have simulators that will provide demographic, movement, and epidemiology null models against which to compare patterns observed in empirical systems. Such models may then be used to develop quantitative narratives that enhance our intuition and understanding of the relationship between population structure and generative processes: in essence, along with empirical and experimental narratives, quantitative narratives are used to advance ecological epistemology. Here we describe a simulator that accounts for the influence of consumer-resource interactions, existence of social groups anchored around a central location, territoriality, group-switching behavior, and disease dynamics on population size. We use this simulator to develop new and reinforce existing quantitative narratives and point out areas for future study. Author summary The health and viability of species are of considerable concern to all nature lovers. Population models are central to our efforts to assess the numerical and ecological status of species and threats posed by climate change. Models, however, are crude caricatures of complex ecological systems. So how do we construct reliable assessment models able to capture processes essential to predicating the impacts of global change on population viability without getting tied up in their vast complexities? We broach this question and demonstrate how models focusing at the level of the individual (i.e., agent-based models) are tools for developing robust, narratives to augment narratives arising purely from empirical data sources and experimental outcomes. We do this in the context of nesting social groups, foraging for food, while exhibiting territoriality and group-switching behavior; and, we evaluate the impact of disease on the viability of such populations
Actors and factors - bridging social science findings and urban land use change modeling
Recent uneven land use dynamics in urban areas resulting from demographic change, economic pressure and the cities’ mutual competition in a globalising world challenge both scientists and practitioners, among them social scientists, modellers and spatial planners. Processes of growth and decline specifically affect the urban environment, the requirements of the residents on social and natural resources. Social and environmental research is interested in a better understanding and ways of explaining the interactions between society and landscape in urban areas. And it is also needed for making life in cities attractive, secure and affordable within or despite of uneven dynamics.\ud
The position paper upon “Actors and factors – bridging social science findings and urban land use change modeling” presents approaches and ideas on how social science findings on the interaction of the social system (actors) and the land use (factors) are taken up and formalised using modelling and gaming techniques. It should be understood as a first sketch compiling major challenges and proposing exemplary solutions in the field of interest
Digital Ecosystems: Ecosystem-Oriented Architectures
We view Digital Ecosystems to be the digital counterparts of biological
ecosystems. Here, we are concerned with the creation of these Digital
Ecosystems, exploiting the self-organising properties of biological ecosystems
to evolve high-level software applications. Therefore, we created the Digital
Ecosystem, a novel optimisation technique inspired by biological ecosystems,
where the optimisation works at two levels: a first optimisation, migration of
agents which are distributed in a decentralised peer-to-peer network, operating
continuously in time; this process feeds a second optimisation based on
evolutionary computing that operates locally on single peers and is aimed at
finding solutions to satisfy locally relevant constraints. The Digital
Ecosystem was then measured experimentally through simulations, with measures
originating from theoretical ecology, evaluating its likeness to biological
ecosystems. This included its responsiveness to requests for applications from
the user base, as a measure of the ecological succession (ecosystem maturity).
Overall, we have advanced the understanding of Digital Ecosystems, creating
Ecosystem-Oriented Architectures where the word ecosystem is more than just a
metaphor.Comment: 39 pages, 26 figures, journa
Harmonia axyridis: an environmental risk assessment for Northwest Europe
In this paper, we summarize the international situation with respect to environmental risk assessment for biological control agents. Next, we apply a recently designed, comprehensive risk evaluation method consisting of a stepwise procedure to evaluate the environmental risks of Harmonia axyridis in Northwest Europe. This resulted in the very clear conclusion that H. axyridis is a potentially risky species for Northwest Europe, because it is able to establish, it has a very wide host range including species from other insect orders and even beyond the class of Insecta, it may feed on plant materials, it can cover large distances (>50 km per year), it does move into non-target areas, it may attack many non-target species including beneficial insects and insects of conservation concern, its activities have resulted in the reduction of populations of native predators in North America, it is known as a nuisance in North America and recently also in Northwest Europe, and it may develop as a pest of fruit in North America. Considering the H. axyridis case, current knowledge would lead to the conclusion that, although the predator is capable to effectively control several pest species, its risks are manifold and it should, thus, not have been released in Northwest Europe. At the time of the first releases in Nortwest Europe in 1995, the available scientific literature made clear that H. axyridis is a large sized polyphagous predator and has a great reproductive capacity in comparison with other ladybird beetles, and that there was a need to study non-target effects because of its polyphagous behaviour. In retrospect, this information should have been sufficient to reject import and release of this species, but it was apparently ignored by those who considered release of this predator in Northwest Europe. The case of Harmonia releases in Northwest Europe underlines that there is an urgent need for harmonized, world-wide regulation of biological control agents, including an information system on risky natural enemy species
Factors to consider when using native biological control organisms to manage exotic plants
Biological control of exotic plant populations with native
organisms appears to be increasing, even though its success
to date has been limited. Although many researchers and
managers feel that native organisms are easier to use and
present less risk to the environment this may not be true.
Developing a successful management program with a native
insect is dependent on a number of critical factors that need
to be considered. Information is needed on the feeding preference
of the agent, agent effectiveness, environmental regulation
of the agent, unique requirements of the agent,
population maintenance of the agent, and time to desired
impact. By understanding these factors, researchers and
managers can develop a detailed protocol for using the native
biological control agent for a specific target plant.
. We found
E. lecontei
in 14 waterbodies,
most of which were in eastern Washington. Only one lake
with weevils was located in western Washington. Weevils were
associated with both Eurasian (
Myriophyllum spicatum
L.) and
northern watermilfoil (
M. sibiricum
K.). Waterbodies with
E.
lecontei
had significantly higher (
P
< 0.05) pH (8.7
±
0.2)
(mean
±
2SE), specific conductance (0.3
±
0.08 mS cm
-1
) and
total alkalinity (132.4
±
30.8 mg CaCO
3
L
-1
). We also found
that weevil presence was related to surface water temperature
and waterbody location ( = 24.3,
P
≤
0.001) and of all
the models tested, this model provided the best fit (Hosmer-
Lemeshow goodness-of-fit = 4.0,
P
= 0.9). Our results suggest
that in Washington State
E. lecontei
occurs primarily in
eastern Washington in waterbodies with pH
≥
8.2 and specific
conductance
≥
0.2 mS cm
-1
. Furthermore, weevil distribution
appears to be correlated with waterbody location (eastern
versus western Washington) and surface water temperature
Biology of Applied Digital Ecosystems
A primary motivation for our research in Digital Ecosystems is the desire to
exploit the self-organising properties of biological ecosystems. Ecosystems are
thought to be robust, scalable architectures that can automatically solve
complex, dynamic problems. However, the biological processes that contribute to
these properties have not been made explicit in Digital Ecosystems research.
Here, we discuss how biological properties contribute to the self-organising
features of biological ecosystems, including population dynamics, evolution, a
complex dynamic environment, and spatial distributions for generating local
interactions. The potential for exploiting these properties in artificial
systems is then considered. We suggest that several key features of biological
ecosystems have not been fully explored in existing digital ecosystems, and
discuss how mimicking these features may assist in developing robust, scalable
self-organising architectures. An example architecture, the Digital Ecosystem,
is considered in detail. The Digital Ecosystem is then measured experimentally
through simulations, with measures originating from theoretical ecology, to
confirm its likeness to a biological ecosystem. Including the responsiveness to
requests for applications from the user base, as a measure of the 'ecological
succession' (development).Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure, conferenc
A comparative analysis of parallel processing and super-individual methods for improving the computational performance of a large individual-based model
Individual-based modelling approaches are being used to simulate larger complex spatial systems in ecology and in other fields of research. Several novel model development issues now face researchers: in particular how to simulate large numbers of individuals with high levels of complexity, given finite computing resources. A case study of a spatially-explicit simulation of aphid population dynamics was used to assess two strategies for coping with a large number of individuals: the use of ‘super-individuals’ and parallel computing. Parallelisation of the model maintained the model structure and thus the simulation results were comparable to the original model. However, the super-individual implementation of the model caused significant changes to the model dynamics, both spatially and temporally. When super-individuals represented more than around 10 individuals it became evident that aggregate statistics generated from a super-individual model can hide more detailed deviations from an individual-level model. Improvements in memory use and model speed were perceived with both approaches. For the parallel approach, significant speed-up was only achieved when more than five processors were used and memory availability was only increased once five or more processors were used. The super-individual approach has potential to improve model speed and memory use dramatically, however this paper cautions the use of this approach for a density-dependent spatially-explicit model, unless individual variability is better taken into account
Modelling Hen Harrier Dynamics to Inform Human-Wildlife Conflict Resolution : A Spatially-Realistic, Individual-Based Approach
Peer reviewedPublisher PD
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