Planning Against Fictitious Players in Repeated Normal Form Games

Planning how to interact against bounded memory and unbounded memory learning opponents needs different treatment. Thus far, however, work in this area has shown how to design plans against bounded memory learning opponents, but no work has dealt with the unbounded memory case. This paper tackles this gap. In particular, we frame this as a planning problem using the framework of repeated matrix games, where the planner's objective is to compute the best exploiting sequence of actions against a learning opponent. The particular class of opponent we study uses a fictitious play process to update her beliefs, but the analysis generalizes to many forms of Bayesian learning agents. Our analysis is inspired by Banerjee and Peng's AIM framework, which works for planning and learning against bounded memory opponents (e.g an adaptive player). Building on this, we show how an unbounded memory opponent (specifically a fictitious player) can also be modelled as a finite MDP and present a new efficient algorithm that can find a way to exploit the opponent by computing in polynomial time a sequence of play that can obtain a higher average reward than those obtained by playing a game theoretic (Nash or correlated) equilibrium

Analisis Konsistensi Perencanaan dan Penganggaran di Kabupaten Pegunungan Bintangstudi Kasus pada Dinas Perhubungan, Komunikasi dan Informatika Tahun 2013-2015

This research entitled Analysis of Planning and Budgeting Conceptency in Pegunungan Bintang District Case Study On Department of Transportation, Communication and Informatics Year 2013-2015. In this research try to analyze consistency between planning and budgeting seen from planning and budgeting document like RKPD, PPAS, and APBD. RKPD (Local Government Work Plan), which is the result of the selection of community aspirations through the Development Planning Council (Musrenbang). Furthermore, RKPD work plan and funding are used as guidance in the budgeting process (budgeting). Budgeting begins with the preparation of Temporary Budget Priorities and Ceiling (PPAS). The approved PPAS is used as a guideline for the preparation of Regional Revenue and Expenditure Budget Plans (RAPBD) which is then ratified into Regional Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBD). The results of the analysis are then analyzed using the Planning and Budgeting Consolidation Matrix to see how far the consistency is occurring. The results of this study indicate that the average level of consistency planning and budgeting in the field of Transportation, Communications and Informatics in Pegunungan Bintang District in 2013-2015 is quite good where the average level of consistency of programs between RKPD and PPAS ranges between 80.00%. While the average level of consistency of activities is 61.98%. This indicates that the drafting of the plan on PPAS still exists that is not guided by RKPD. The level of program consistency between PPAS and APBD has an average value of 60.64%. While the average level of consistency of activity is 63.19%. The level of planning and budgeting concessions from year to year shows a fluctuating value. In consistency the budget outline has a consistent value. Inconsistencies occur because there are activities that suddenly appear and are not contained in the previous document. This is due to delays in information activities from the central government. Keywords: Consistency, Planning, Budgetin

Dose specification in External Beam Radiotherapy for CyberKnife and VMAT techniques applied to a case of prostate cancer

Recent technological development in radiotherapy allows to introduce new irradiation techniques implemented on the conventional accelerators and on the machines such as CyberKnife (CK). These significantly changes the philosophy of planning and execution of radiotherapy. One of the fundamental concepts in radiotherapy is to define the therapeutic dose. It can be defined in the point, at the selected isodose, as an average value, or combined with the volume. We present the case of prostate cancer patient irradiated using CK machine and classic accelerator (VMAT). The differences in dose distribution and its value are shown. The analysis indicates that the average dose in Planning Treatment Volume (PTV) is a useful parameter during comparison of the dose distributions realized on machines of different type

Plan reuse versus plan generation : a theoretical and empirical analysis

The ability of a planner to reuse parts of old plans is hypothesized to be a valuable tool for improving efficiency of planning by avoiding the repetition of the same planning effort. We test this hypothesis from an analytical and empirical point of view. A comparative worst-case complexity analysis of generation and reuse under different assumptions reveals that it is not possible to achieve a provable efficiency gain of reuse over generation. Further, assuming "conservative" plan modification, plan reuse can actually be strictly more difficult than plan generation. While these results do not imply that there won\u27t be an efficiency gain in the "average case", retrieval of a good plan may present a serious bottleneck for plan reuse systems, as we will show. Finally, we present the results of an empirical study of three different plan reuse systems, which leads us to the conclusion that the utility of plan-reuse techniques is limited and that these limits have not been determined yet

A Simulation-Based Analysis of the Impact of In-Sourcing a Major Process Element on the Coast Guard HH-601 Depot Maintenance Process

Leaders at the United States Coast Guard\u27s Aircraft Repair and Service Center (ARSC) in Elizabeth City, North Carolina recently formalized their planning and analysis functions by adding a dedicated branch to their command structure. The Planning and Analysis Branch intends to apply computer modeling and simulation to study the impact of process changes to the various Programmed Depot Maintenance (PDM) lines. This research considers the applicability of this type of modeling and simulation, using ARENA to study the current HH-6OJ PDM process. The contribution of this research is a methodology specific to ARSC needs, an analysis of methodology based on a discrete event simulation model of PDM lines, and a specific case study demonstrating the methodologies. The response variable of interest is average PDM process time as a function of either in-sourcing or out-sourcing labor for a major process step. The research includes development and evaluation of a macro-level process model using ARENA 5.0

Convergence of economic growth in Russian megacities

Purpose: The article presents the results of an empirical analysis of the economic growth of Russian cities with a population of over 1 million people (megacities). Design/Methodology/Approach: The analyzed indicator is the city product calculated according to the UN methodology for the period from 2010 to 2016. The paper analyses the process of β- and σ-convergence across Russian megacities using methods of spatial econometrics in addition to the traditional β-convergence techniques from the neoclassical theoretical framework. Findings: The dynamics of the coefficient of variation confirmed the presence of σ-convergence in city product. Empirically, positive spatial autocorrelation has been confirmed. Beta-convergence for Russian megacities is found to be significant and the spatial location of megacities significantly affects β-convergence. Control factors such as fixed capital investment per capita in 2010, average retail volume per capita in 2010, average annual number of employees of enterprises and organizations in 2010 and the dummy variable introduced for “federal cities” Moscow and St. Petersburg are all found to have positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth. Practical Implications: Policymakers may take the results into account under the planning of economical strategies for megacities and regions in Russia in order to facilitate the regional economic growth and the speed of convergence. Originality/Value: The main contribution of the study is the consideration of the economical growth for the megacities and not for the regions as it often used to be the case in similar studies. The important finding is that megacities‘ economies do converge and the influence of control factors is pronounced.peer-reviewe

WORKFORCE REQUIREMENT PLANNING AND MEASUREMENT PROCEDURE NEEDS BY USING WORKLOAD ANALYTICAL METHOD IN PT POS INDONESIA

The basic problem often encountered in a company is the ability to manage human resources to carry out tasks in accordance with the target goals to be achieved. It cannot be separated from the role of human resources company as the main driver in realizing the company\u27s vision, mission, goals, and strategy. In this case, the Career Management & HR Assessment Division of PT POS Indonesia (Persero) is a division has an important role in maintaining the availability and manage human resource needs in accordance with the needs of the company. However, the company experienced problems in the division due to the results of less than optimal performance. Although the average achievement of individual performance of division employees is above the company standard and the achievement of the division\u27s performance has reached 93.91% and above the company standard, there are still 39.4% job description of the division still has not reached the target. The purpose of this study is to provide alternative solutions in the form of procedures in the planning needs of employees, so that the procedure can help companies in performing human resource needs planning especially in the Career Management & HR Assessment Division which has an important role in the availability and management of human resources In PT POS Indonesia (Persero). The research conducted is the measurement of workload with NASA-TLX method and employee productivity measurement with workload analysis method and used work sampling as a tool to measure employee productivity. The result of the research is the percentage of average productivity of employees is 77% productive activities, the average workload experienced is high, and the optimal number of employees is 9 employees. In addition, there is also a procedure as a managerial implication or an alternative solution for the company in doing human resource needs planning. Keyword: workload, work sampling, productivity, human resource requirements planning, compan

Quantitative Holistic Assessment of Implementing Collaborative Planning Practices

Practices of collaborative planning - as related to novel project delivery methods, information technologies, lean construction, and supply chain practices - can impact the cost and schedule performance of projects in the architectural, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry. However, there is a lack of research providing a quantitative holistic assessment of implementing collaborative planning practices. This paper fills this knowledge gap. Using an interdependent multistep research methodology, the authors (1) analyzed a holistic literature-based list of collaborative planning risks using 46 responses from industry expert surveys; (2) calculated the criticality of these risks and compared the obtained results using Spearman rank correlation; (3) statistically analyzed the impact of these risks - based on a project-based survey that collected data from 65 different projects - using distribution fitting analysis and weighted average calculations; (4) developed a framework for predicting the cost and schedule performance impacts in relation to utilizing collaborative planning in the AEC industry; and (5) mathematically verified the research steps using an extreme condition test and sensitivity analysis, and practically validated the research output utilizing a case study example and the insights of 25 industry experts. Within the context of collaborative planning, this paper highlighted and discussed the top six risks that affect cost and schedule project performance: resistance to change, no early involvement of key project participants, lack of construction coordination, late and ineffective communication, lack of leadership, and absence of flexibility and coordination of design. Ultimately, this study provides a necessary and highly customizable metric for industry practitioners to manage their collaborative planning practices efficiently and improve their project performance

Precise Proximal Femur Fracture Classification for Interactive Training and Surgical Planning

We demonstrate the feasibility of a fully automatic computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) tool, based on deep learning, that localizes and classifies proximal femur fractures on X-ray images according to the AO classification. The proposed framework aims to improve patient treatment planning and provide support for the training of trauma surgeon residents. A database of 1347 clinical radiographic studies was collected. Radiologists and trauma surgeons annotated all fractures with bounding boxes, and provided a classification according to the AO standard. The proposed CAD tool for the classification of radiographs into types "A", "B" and "not-fractured", reaches a F1-score of 87% and AUC of 0.95, when classifying fractures versus not-fractured cases it improves up to 94% and 0.98. Prior localization of the fracture results in an improvement with respect to full image classification. 100% of the predicted centers of the region of interest are contained in the manually provided bounding boxes. The system retrieves on average 9 relevant images (from the same class) out of 10 cases. Our CAD scheme localizes, detects and further classifies proximal femur fractures achieving results comparable to expert-level and state-of-the-art performance. Our auxiliary localization model was highly accurate predicting the region of interest in the radiograph. We further investigated several strategies of verification for its adoption into the daily clinical routine. A sensitivity analysis of the size of the ROI and image retrieval as a clinical use case were presented.Comment: Accepted at IPCAI 2020 and IJCAR

The regionalization of labour markets by modelling commuting behaviour

There hardly exists any country in which regional employment issues do not play an important role in economic planning or policy making. The need for models to carry out policy analyses in this field of research is evident. In order to analyse regional labour markets administratively defined areas are usually taken as units of analysis. On the one hand, labour market policies targeted on these administratively defined areas may be less effective if the administrative boundaries do not follow functionally linked labour market areas. On the other hand, it may be very difficult for local planning authorities to set policy goals with regard to another subdivision of areas than the administrative subdivision. Therefore it is important for policy makers at the regional level to be aware of the functional interdependencies between regions, in particular when these regions are not functional regional labour markets. In our paper we subdivide functional regional labour markets by modelling the commuting behaviour of workers in the Netherlands. For a better understanding of regional labour markets and their dynamics, commuting behaviour of workers is analysed by using the distance travelled from home to work (see Isserman et al., 1986). The commuting decision depends on workers’ background characteristics like age, sex, education, income or region-specific variables. By analysing the impact of these determinants on commuting, we are able to compare the average commuter of a country, in our case the Netherlands, with the commuters at the municipality level. By taking a closer look at the commuters at the municipality level, we find municipalities in which commuters act significantly different from the average commuter. These differences in commuting behaviour at the municipality level give an impression of the relative labour market attractiveness of the municipalities and thereby of the ratio between labour demand and supply in regions. We use these differences in commuting behaviour to regionalize the labour market. Although many studies have analysed commuting behaviour, a regionalization of labour markets with respect to different groups of workers has rarely been made. In the paper commuting flows of different groups of workers are used to subdivide the national labour market into functional regional labour markets. Contrary to earlier research (for example Green et al. 1991), we prevent to use arbitrarily chosen cut-off points to regionalize the labour market. Instead, we model the commuting behaviour of individual workers and use statistical criteria to subdivide regional labour markets (see also Baumann et al. 1996). Moreover, we show that the resulting regionalization of the labour market strongly depends on the group of individual workers concerned in the analysis. For example, it is shown that workers travel on average 21,5 kilometres for the home-to-work journey and that this distance increases with the educational level of the commuters. Therefore the regional labour market for workers with a high level of education is relatively large. To perform our empirical analysis we use journey-to-work data from Statistics Netherlands (CBS, 2001).