A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software

An Empirical analysis of Open Source Software Defects data through Software Reliability Growth Models

The purpose of this study is to analyze the reliability growth of Open Source Software (OSS) using Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGM). This study uses defects data of twenty five different releases of five OSS projects. For each release of the selected projects two types of datasets have been created; datasets developed with respect to defect creation date (created date DS) and datasets developed with respect to defect updated date (updated date DS). These defects datasets are modelled by eight SRGMs; Musa Okumoto, Inflection S-Shaped, Goel Okumoto, Delayed S-Shaped, Logistic, Gompertz, Yamada Exponential, and Generalized Goel Model. These models are chosen due to their widespread use in the literature. The SRGMs are fitted to both types of defects datasets of each project and the their fitting and prediction capabilities are analysed in order to study the OSS reliability growth with respect to defects creation and defects updating time because defect analysis can be used as a constructive reliability predictor. Results show that SRGMs fitting capabilities and prediction qualities directly increase when defects creation date is used for developing OSS defect datasets to characterize the reliability growth of OSS. Hence OSS reliability growth can be characterized with SRGM in a better way if the defect creation date is taken instead of defects updating (fixing) date while developing OSS defects datasets in their reliability modellin

The problems of assessing software reliability ...When you really need to depend on it

This paper looks at the ways in which the reliability of software can be assessed and predicted. It shows that the levels of reliability that can be claimed with scientific justification are relatively modest

Optimal discrete stopping times for reliability growth tests

Often, the duration of a reliability growth development test is specified in advance and the decision to terminate or continue testing is conducted at discrete time intervals. These features are normally not captured by reliability growth models. This paper adapts a standard reliability growth model to determine the optimal time for which to plan to terminate testing. The underlying stochastic process is developed from an Order Statistic argument with Bayesian inference used to estimate the number of faults within the design and classical inference procedures used to assess the rate of fault detection. Inference procedures within this framework are explored where it is shown the Maximum Likelihood Estimators possess a small bias and converges to the Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimator after few tests for designs with moderate number of faults. It is shown that the Likelihood function can be bimodal when there is conflict between the observed rate of fault detection and the prior distribution describing the number of faults in the design. An illustrative example is provided

An Assessment of PIER Electric Grid Research 2003-2014 White Paper

This white paper describes the circumstances in California around the turn of the 21st century that led the California Energy Commission (CEC) to direct additional Public Interest Energy Research funds to address critical electric grid issues, especially those arising from integrating high penetrations of variable renewable generation with the electric grid. It contains an assessment of the beneficial science and technology advances of the resultant portfolio of electric grid research projects administered under the direction of the CEC by a competitively selected contractor, the University of California’s California Institute for Energy and the Environment, from 2003-2014