An intelligent system for risk classification of stock investment projects

The proposed paper demonstrates that a hybrid fuzzy neural network can serve as a risk classifier of stock investment projects. The training algorithm for the regular part of the network is based on bidirectional incremental evolution proving more efficient than direct evolution. The approach is compared with other crisp and soft investment appraisal and trading techniques, while building a multimodel domain representation for an intelligent decision support system. Thus the advantages of each model are utilised while looking at the investment problem from different perspectives. The empirical results are based on UK companies traded on the London Stock Exchange

Soft computing in investment appraisal

Standard financial techniques neglect extreme situations and regards large market shifts as too unlikely to matter. Such approach accounts for what occurs most of the time in the market, but does not reflect the reality, as major events happen in the rest of the time and investors are ‘surprised’ by ‘unexpected’ market movements. An alternative fuzzy approach permits fluctuations well beyond the probability type of uncertainty and allows one to make fewer assumptions about the data distribution and market behaviour. Fuzzifying the present value criteria, we suggest a measure of the risk associated with each investment opportunity and estimate the project’s robustness towards market uncertainty. The procedure is applied to thirty-five UK companies traded on the London Stock Exchange and a neural network solution to the fuzzy criterion is provided to facilitate the decision-making process. Finally, we suggest a specific evolutionary algorithm to train a fuzzy neural net - the bidirectional incremental evolution will automatically identify the complexity of the problem and correspondingly adapt the parameters of the fuzzy network

Investment Risk Appraisal

Standard financial techniques neglect extreme situations and regards large market shifts as too unlikely to matter. This approach may account for what occurs most of the time in the market, but the picture it presents does not reflect the reality, as the major events happen in the rest of the time and investors are ‘surprised’ by ‘unexpected’ market movements. An alternative fuzzy approach permits fluctuations well beyond the probability type of uncertainty and allows one to make fewer assumptions about the data distribution and market behaviour. Fuzzifying the present value criteria, we suggest a measure of the risk associated with each investment opportunity and estimate the project’s robustness towards market uncertainty. The procedure is applied to thirty-five UK companies and a neural network solution to the fuzzy criterion is provided to facilitate the decision-making process. Finally, we discuss the grounds for classical asset pricing model revision and argue that the demand for relaxed assumptions appeals for another approach to modelling the market environment

Methods and Tools for the Microsimulation and Forecasting of Household Expenditure - A Review

This paper reviews potential methods and tools for the microsimulation and forecasting of household expenditure. It begins with a discussion of a range of approaches to the forecasting of household populations via agent-based modelling tools. Then it evaluates approaches to the modelling of household expenditure. A prototype implementation is described and the paper concludes with an outline of an approach to be pursued in future work

Methods and Tools for the Microsimulation and Forecasting of Household Expenditure

This paper reviews potential methods and tools for the microsimulation and forecasting of household expenditure. It begins with a discussion of a range of approaches to the forecasting of household populations via agent-based modelling tools. Then it evaluates approaches to the modelling of household expenditure. A prototype implementation is described and the paper concludes with an outline of an approach to be pursued in future work

Management Accounting Information in Decision-making: Unveiling Possibilities for AI

Despite the great opportunities of artificial intelligence (AI) in decision-making, the combination has been neglected among management accounting researchers. A qualitative multiple case study was used to address the issue within four case companies and eleven semi-structured interviews. The cases cover production forecast, sales targeting, productivity investment and target setting decisions. As a result, I suggest a new data accountant role, who acts as a translator between AI and managers. He/she translates the needs of managers to AI and then explains the results and logic to the managers. Major limitation is that AI was not used in the cases, which makes this study more future-oriented. More research, especially practical cases on decision-making with AI, is needed. For managers, this thesis underlines that accounting and AI have many other roles than just giving answers, and they have to be actively managed in order to promote healthy decision-making culture

MODELING LARGE-SCALE CROSS EFFECT IN CO-PURCHASE INCIDENCE: COMPARING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK TECHNIQUES AND MULTIVARIATE PROBIT MODELING

This dissertation examines cross-category effects in consumer purchases from the big data and analytics perspectives. It uses data from Nielsen Consumer Panel and Scanner databases for its investigations. With big data analytics it becomes possible to examine the cross effects of many product categories on each other. The number of categories whose cross effects are studied is called category scale or just scale in this dissertation. The larger the category scale the higher the number of categories whose cross effects are studied. This dissertation extends research on models of cross effects by (1) examining the performance of MVP model across category scale; (2) customizing artificial neural network (ANN) techniques for large-scale cross effect analysis; (3) examining the performance of ANN across scale; and (4) developing a conceptual model of spending habits as a source of cross effect heterogeneity. The results provide researchers and managers new knowledge about using the two techniques in large category scale settings The computational capabilities required by MVP models grow exponentially with scale and thus are more significantly limited by computational capabilities than are ANN models. In our experiments, for scales 4, 8, 16 and 32, using Nielsen data, MVP models could not be estimated using baskets with 16 and more categories. We attempted to and could calibrate ANN models, on the other hand, for both scales 16 and 32. Surprisingly, the predictive results of ANN models exhibit an inverted U relationship with scale. As an ancillary result we provide a method for determining the existence and extent of non-linear own and cross category effects on likelihood of purchase of a category using ANN models. Besides our empirical studies, we draw on the mental budgeting model and impulsive spending literature, to provide a conceptualization of consumer spending habits as a source of heterogeneity in cross effect context. Finally, after a discussion of conclusions and limitations, the dissertation concludes with a discussion of open questions for future research

The Impact of Disruptive Technologies in Finance and Accounting: A Systematic Literature Review

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Information Management, specialization in Knowledge Management and Business IntelligenceThe digital transition era, marked by a strong evolution of Information Technologies, and its massive expansion towards all products, services, and sectors, has changed all known methods for carrying out and conducting all sorts of professional practices. Within the scope of accounting activities and transactions related to accounting, various tasks have started to be automatized with the help of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Hence, no longer existing the need of spending time on some of the repetitive day-to-day tasks, professionals in these areas will have more time and freedom to perform predictive business analysis, to collect and report financial data, which will most likely become vital to assist decision-making and possible attraction of new investments. As such, there is a clear link between accounting and the emergence of disruptive technologies, which indicates an interesting research area for accounting information systems researchers. What is the impact of disruptive technologies in accounting practices? What is the role played by accountants to work alongside their digital colleagues? What are the skills that accountants may have to be future proof in an ever-changing digital environment? This dissertation aims to answer these questions by following a qualitative and exploratory approach, through a systematic literature review. The analysis reveals that the impact of disruptive technologies in finance and accounting can be summarized in four main domains, Strategic Management, Technology Innovation, Business Acumen and Operations and Accounting Provision. We review the content of recent academic literature regarding the relationship between disruptive technologies and accounting and highlight research gaps and opportunities for future research