25,353 research outputs found

    An informational approach to the global optimization of expensive-to-evaluate functions

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    In many global optimization problems motivated by engineering applications, the number of function evaluations is severely limited by time or cost. To ensure that each evaluation contributes to the localization of good candidates for the role of global minimizer, a sequential choice of evaluation points is usually carried out. In particular, when Kriging is used to interpolate past evaluations, the uncertainty associated with the lack of information on the function can be expressed and used to compute a number of criteria accounting for the interest of an additional evaluation at any given point. This paper introduces minimizer entropy as a new Kriging-based criterion for the sequential choice of points at which the function should be evaluated. Based on \emph{stepwise uncertainty reduction}, it accounts for the informational gain on the minimizer expected from a new evaluation. The criterion is approximated using conditional simulations of the Gaussian process model behind Kriging, and then inserted into an algorithm similar in spirit to the \emph{Efficient Global Optimization} (EGO) algorithm. An empirical comparison is carried out between our criterion and \emph{expected improvement}, one of the reference criteria in the literature. Experimental results indicate major evaluation savings over EGO. Finally, the method, which we call IAGO (for Informational Approach to Global Optimization) is extended to robust optimization problems, where both the factors to be tuned and the function evaluations are corrupted by noise.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Journal of Global Optimization (This is the revised version, with additional details on computational problems, and some grammatical changes

    Considerate Approaches to Achieving Sufficiency for ABC model selection

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    For nearly any challenging scientific problem evaluation of the likelihood is problematic if not impossible. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) allows us to employ the whole Bayesian formalism to problems where we can use simulations from a model, but cannot evaluate the likelihood directly. When summary statistics of real and simulated data are compared --- rather than the data directly --- information is lost, unless the summary statistics are sufficient. Here we employ an information-theoretical framework that can be used to construct (approximately) sufficient statistics by combining different statistics until the loss of information is minimized. Such sufficient sets of statistics are constructed for both parameter estimation and model selection problems. We apply our approach to a range of illustrative and real-world model selection problems

    A Comparative Review of Dimension Reduction Methods in Approximate Bayesian Computation

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    Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods make use of comparisons between simulated and observed summary statistics to overcome the problem of computationally intractable likelihood functions. As the practical implementation of ABC requires computations based on vectors of summary statistics, rather than full data sets, a central question is how to derive low-dimensional summary statistics from the observed data with minimal loss of information. In this article we provide a comprehensive review and comparison of the performance of the principal methods of dimension reduction proposed in the ABC literature. The methods are split into three nonmutually exclusive classes consisting of best subset selection methods, projection techniques and regularization. In addition, we introduce two new methods of dimension reduction. The first is a best subset selection method based on Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, and the second uses ridge regression as a regularization procedure. We illustrate the performance of these dimension reduction techniques through the analysis of three challenging models and data sets.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-STS406 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
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