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A modular hybrid simulation framework for complex manufacturing system design
For complex manufacturing systems, the current hybrid Agent-Based Modelling and Discrete Event Simulation (ABM–DES) frameworks are limited to component and system levels of representation and present a degree of static complexity to study optimal resource planning. To address these limitations, a modular hybrid simulation framework for complex manufacturing system design is presented. A manufacturing system with highly regulated and manual handling processes, composed of multiple repeating modules, is considered. In this framework, the concept of modular hybrid ABM–DES technique is introduced to demonstrate a novel simulation method using a dynamic system of parallel multi-agent discrete events. In this context, to create a modular model, the stochastic finite dynamical system is extended to allow the description of discrete event states inside the agent for manufacturing repeating modules (meso level). Moreover, dynamic complexity regarding uncertain processing time and resources is considered. This framework guides the user step-by-step through the system design and modular hybrid model. A real case study in the cell and gene therapy industry is conducted to test the validity of the framework. The simulation results are compared against the data from the studied case; excellent agreement with 1.038% error margin is found in terms of the company performance. The optimal resource planning and the uncertainty of the processing time for manufacturing phases (exo level), in the presence of dynamic complexity is calculated
Emulating dynamic non-linear simulators using Gaussian processes
The dynamic emulation of non-linear deterministic computer codes where the
output is a time series, possibly multivariate, is examined. Such computer
models simulate the evolution of some real-world phenomenon over time, for
example models of the climate or the functioning of the human brain. The models
we are interested in are highly non-linear and exhibit tipping points,
bifurcations and chaotic behaviour. However, each simulation run could be too
time-consuming to perform analyses that require many runs, including
quantifying the variation in model output with respect to changes in the
inputs. Therefore, Gaussian process emulators are used to approximate the
output of the code. To do this, the flow map of the system under study is
emulated over a short time period. Then, it is used in an iterative way to
predict the whole time series. A number of ways are proposed to take into
account the uncertainty of inputs to the emulators, after fixed initial
conditions, and the correlation between them through the time series. The
methodology is illustrated with two examples: the highly non-linear dynamical
systems described by the Lorenz and Van der Pol equations. In both cases, the
predictive performance is relatively high and the measure of uncertainty
provided by the method reflects the extent of predictability in each system
Gaussian process based model predictive control : a thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Engineering, School of Engineering and Advanced Technology, Massey University, New Zealand
The performance of using Model Predictive Control (MPC) techniques is highly dependent
on a model that is able to accurately represent the dynamical system. The datadriven
modelling techniques are usually used as an alternative approach to obtain such
a model when first principle techniques are not applicable. However, it is not easy to
assess the quality of learnt models when using the traditional data-driven models, such
as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Fuzzy Model (FM). This issue is addressed in
this thesis by using probabilistic Gaussian Process (GP) models.
One key issue of using the GP models is accurately learning the hyperparameters.
The Conjugate Gradient (CG) algorithms are conventionally used in the problem of
maximizing the Log-Likelihood (LL) function to obtain these hyperparameters. In this
thesis, we proposed a hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm to cope with
the problem of learning hyperparameters. In addition, we also explored using the Mean
Squared Error (MSE) of outputs as the fitness function in the optimization problem.
This will provide us a quality indication of intermediate solutions.
The GP based MPC approaches for unknown systems have been studied in the past
decade. However, most of them are not generally formulated. In addition, the optimization
solutions in existing GP based MPC algorithms are not clearly given or are
computationally demanding. In this thesis, we first study the use of GP based MPC approaches
in the unconstrained problems. Compared to the existing works, the proposed
approach is generally formulated and the corresponding optimization problem is eff-
ciently solved by using the analytical gradients of GP models w.r.t. outputs and control
inputs. The GPMPC1 and GPMPC2 algorithms are subsequently proposed to handle
the general constrained problems. In addition, through using the proposed basic and
extended GP based local dynamical models, the constrained MPC problem is effectively
solved in the GPMPC1 and GPMPC2 algorithms. The proposed algorithms are verified
in the trajectory tracking problem of the quadrotor.
The issue of closed-loop stability in the proposed GPMPC algorithm is addressed
by means of the terminal cost and constraint technique in this thesis. The stability
guaranteed GPMPC algorithm is subsequently proposed for the constrained problem. By
using the extended GP based local dynamical model, the corresponding MPC problem
is effectively solved
What can systems and control theory do for agricultural science?
Abstract: While many professionals with a background in agricultural and bio-resource sciences work with models, only few have been exposed to systems and control theory. The purpose of this paper is to elucidate a selection of methods from systems theory that can be beneficial to quantitative agricultural science. The state space representation of a dynamical system is the corner stone in the mainstream of systems theory. It is not well known in agro-modelling that linearization followed by evaluation of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the system matrix is useful to obtain dominant time constants and dominant directions in state space, and offers opportunities for science-based model reduction. The continuous state space description is also useful in deriving truly equivalent discrete time models, and clearly shows that parameters obtained with discrete models must be interpreted with care when transferred to another model code environment. Sensitivity analysis of dynamic models reveals that sensitivity is time and input dependent. Identifiability and sensitivity are essential notions in the design of informative experiments, and the idea of persistent excitation, leading to dynamic experiments rather than the usual static experiments can be very beneficial. A special branch of systems theory is control theory. Obviously, control plays an important part in agricultural and bio-systems engineering, but it is argued that also agronomists can profit from notions from the world of control, even if practical control options are restricted to alleviating growth limiting conditions, rather than true crop control. The most important is the idea of reducing uncertainty via feed-back. On the other hand, the systems and control community is challenged to do more to address the problems of real life, such as spatial variability, measurement delays, lacking data, environmental stochasticity, parameter variability, unavoidable model uncertainty, discrete phenomena, variable system structures, the interaction of technical ad living systems, and, indeed, the study of the functioning of life itself
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