6,983 research outputs found

    An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling in R: the lulccR package (0.1.0)

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    Land use change has important consequences for biodiversity and the sustainability of ecosystem services, as well as for global environmental change. Spatially explicit land use change models improve our understanding of the processes driving change and make predictions about the quantity and location of future and past change. Here we present the lulccR package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of different models; (3) different aspects of the modelling procedure must be performed in different environments because existing applications usually only perform the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the widely used CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a dataset included with the package. It is envisaged that lulccR will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment

    Carbon, land and water: a global analysis of the hydrologic dimensions of climate change mitigation through afforestation / reforestation

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    Climate change / Water supply / Forests / Land use / Afforestation / Reforestation / Water balance / Models / Evapotranspiration / Precipitation / Water use / Ecosystems

    Giving credit to reforestation for water quality benefits.

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    While there is a general belief that reforesting marginal, often unprofitable, croplands can result in water quality benefits, to date there have been very few studies that have attempted to quantify the magnitude of the reductions in nutrient (N and P) and sediment export. In order to determine the magnitude of a credit for water quality trading, there is a need to develop quantitative approaches to estimate the benefits from forest planting in terms of load reductions. Here we first evaluate the availability of marginal croplands (i.e. those with low infiltration capacity and high slopes) within a large section of the Ohio River Basin (ORB) to assess the magnitude of the land that could be reforested. Next, we employ the Nutrient Tracking Tool (NTT) to study the reduction in N, P and sediment losses from converting corn or corn/soy rotations to forested lands, first in a case study and then for a large region within the ORB. We find that after reforestation, N losses can decrease by 40 to 80 kg/ha-yr (95-97% reduction), while P losses decrease by 1 to 4 kg/ha-yr (96-99% reduction). There is a significant influence of local conditions (soils, previous crop management practices, meteorology), which can be considered with NTT and must be taken into consideration for specific projects. There is also considerable interannual and monthly variability, which highlights the need to take the longer view into account in nutrient credit considerations for water quality trading, as well as in monitoring programs. Overall, there is the potential for avoiding 60 million kg N and 2 million kg P from reaching the streams and rivers of the northern ORB as a result of conversion of marginal farmland to tree planting, which is on the order of 12% decrease for TN and 5% for TP, for the entire basin. Accounting for attenuation, this represents a significant fraction of the goal of the USEPA Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force to reduce TN and TP reaching the dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico, the second largest dead zone in the world. More broadly, the potential for targeted forest planting to reduce nutrient loading demonstrated in this study suggests further consideration of this approach for managing water quality in waterways throughout the world. The study was conducted using computational models and there is a need to evaluate the results with empirical observations

    Dentrification potential of different landuse types in an agricultural watershed, lower Mississippi valley.

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    Expansion of agricultural land and excessive nitrogen (N) fertilizer use in the Mississippi River watershed has resulted in a three-fold increase in the nitrate load of the river since the early 1950s. One way to reduce this nitrate load is to restore wetlands at suitable locations between croplands and receiving waters to remove run-off nitrate through previous termdenitrification.next term This research investigated previous termdenitrificationnext term potential (DP) of different land uses and its controlling factors in an agricultural watershed in the lower Mississippi valley (previous termLMV)next term to help identify sites with high DP for reducing run-off nitrate. Soil samples collected from seven land-use types of an agricultural watershed during spring, summer, fall and winter were incubated in the laboratory for DP determination. Low-elevation clay soils in wetlands exhibited 6.3 and 2.5 times greater DP compared to high-elevation silt loam and low-elevation clay soils in croplands, respectively. DP of vegetated-ditches was 1.3 and 4.2 times that of un-vegetated ditches and cultivated soils, respectively. Soil carbon and nitrogen availability, bulk density, and soil moisture significantly affected DP. These factors were significantly influenced in turn by landscape position and land-use type of the watershed. It is evident from these results that low-elevation, fine-textured soils under natural wetlands are the best locations for mediating nitrate loss from agricultural watersheds in the previous termLMV.next term Landscape position and land-use types can be used as indices for the assessment/modeling of previous termdenitrificationnext term potential and identification of sites for restoration for nitrate removal in agricultural watersheds

    Trees and water: smallholder agroforestry on irrigated lands in Northern India

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    Trees / Populus deltoids / Agroforestry / Afforestation / Reforestation / Models / Water use / Water balance / Evapotranspiration / Precipitation / Remote sensing / Irrigation requirements / India

    Assessing the Effectiveness of Tradable Landuse Rights for Biodiversity Conservation: An Application to Canada's Boreal Mixedwood Forest

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    Ecological reserve networks are an important strategy for conserving biodiversity. One approach to selecting reserves is to use optimization algorithms that maximize an ecological objective function subject to a total reserve area constraint. Under this approach, economic factors such as potential land values and tenure arrangements are often ignored. Tradable landuse rights are proposed as an alternative economic mechanism for selecting reserves. Under this approach economic considerations determine the spatial distribution of development and reserves are allocated to sites with the lowest development value, minimizing the cost of the reserve network. The configuration of the reserve network as well as the biodiversity outcome is determined as a residual. However cost savings can be used to increase the total amount of area in reserve and improve biodiversity outcomes. The appropriateness of this approach for regional planning is discussed in light of key uncertainties associated with biodiversity protection. A comparison of biodiversity outcomes and costs under ecological versus economic approaches is undertaken for the Boreal Forest Natural Region of Alberta, Canada. We find a significant increase in total area protected and an increase in species representation under the TLR approach.Biodiversity conservation, Reserve design, Tradable landuse rights

    Modeling the impact of climate change and land use change scenarios on soil erosion at the Minab Dam Watershed

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    Climate and land use change can influence susceptibility to erosion and consequently land degradation. The aim of this study was to investigate in the baseline and a future period, the land use and climate change effects on soil erosion at an important dam watershed occupying a strategic position on the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The future climate change at the study area was inferred using statistical downscaling and validated by the Canadian earth system model (CanESM2). The future land use change was also simulated using the Markov chain and artificial neural network, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was adopted to estimate soil loss under climate and land use change scenarios. Results show that rainfall erosivity (R factor) will increase under all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The highest amount of R was 40.6 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1)y(-1) in 2030 under RPC 2.6. Future land use/land cover showed rangelands turning into agricultural lands, vegetation cover degradation and an increased soil cover among others. The change of C and R factors represented most of the increase of soil erosion and sediment production in the study area during the future period. The highest erosion during the future period was predicted to reach 14.5 t ha(-1) y(-1), which will generate 5.52 t ha(-1) y(-1) sediment. The difference between estimated and observed sediment was 1.42 t ha(-1) year(-1) at the baseline period. Among the soil erosion factors, soil cover (C factor) is the one that watershed managers could influence most in order to reduce soil loss and alleviate the negative effects of climate change.FCT-Foundation for Science and Technology - PTDC/GES-URB/31928/2017; FEDER ALG-01-0247-FEDER-037303info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    An agent-based approach to model farmers' land use cover change intentions

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    Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) occurs as a consequence of both natural and human activities, causing impacts on biophysical and agricultural resources. In enlarged urban regions, the major changes are those that occur from agriculture to urban uses. Urban uses compete with rural ones due among others, to population growth and housing demand. This competition and the rapid nature of change can lead to fragmented and scattered land use development generating new challenges, for example, concerning food security, soil and biodiversity preservation, among others. Landowners play a key role in LUCC. In peri-urban contexts, three interrelated key actors are pre-eminent in LUCC complex process: 1) investors or developers, who are waiting to take advantage of urban development to obtain the highest profit margin. They rely on population growth, housing demand and spatial planning strategies; 2) farmers, who are affected by urban development and intend to capitalise on their investment, or farmers who own property for amenity and lifestyle values; 3) and at a broader scale, land use planners/ decision-makers. Farmers’ participation in the real estate market as buyers, sellers or developers and in the land renting market has major implications for LUCC because they have the capacity for financial investment and to control future agricultural land use. Several studies have analysed farmer decision-making processes in peri-urban regions. These studies identified agricultural areas as the most vulnerable to changes, and where farmers are presented with the choice of maintaining their agricultural activities and maximising the production potential of their crops or selling their farmland to land investors. Also, some evaluate the behavioural response of peri-urban farmers to urban development, and income from agricultural production, agritourism, and off-farm employment. Uncertainty about future land profits is a major motivator for decisions to transform farmland into urban development. Thus, LUCC occurs when the value of expected urban development rents exceeds the value of agricultural ones. Some studies have considered two main approaches in analysing farmer decisions: how drivers influence farmer’s decisions; and how their decisions influence LUCC. To analyse farmers’ decisions is to acknowledge the present and future trends and their potential spatial impacts. Simulation models, using cellular automata (CA), artificial neural networks (ANN) or agent-based systems (ABM) are commonly used. This PhD research aims to propose a model to understand the agricultural land-use change in a peri-urban context. We seek to understand how human drivers (e.g., demographic, economic, planning) and biophysical drivers can affect farmer’s intentions regarding the future agricultural land and model those intentions. This study presents an exploratory analysis aimed at understanding the complex dynamics of LUCC based on farmers’ intentions when they are faced with four scenarios with the time horizon of 2025: the A0 scenario – based on current demographic, social and economic trends and investigating what happens if conditions are maintained (BAU); the A1 scenario – based on a regional food security; the A2 scenario – based on climate change; and the B0 scenario – based on farming under urban pressure, and investigating what happens if people start to move to rural areas. These scenarios were selected because of the early urbanisation of the study area, as a consequence of economic, social and demographic development; and because of the interest in preserving and maintaining agriculture as an essential resource. Also, Torres Vedras represents one of the leading suppliers of agricultural goods (mainly fresh fruits, vegetables, and wine) in Portugal. To model LUCC a CA-Markov, an ANN-multilayer perceptron, and an ABM approach were applied. Our results suggest that significant LUCC will occur depending on farmers’ intentions in different scenarios. The highlights are: (1) the highest growth in permanently irrigated land in the A1 scenario; (2) the most significant drop in non-irrigated arable land, and the highest growth in the forest and semi-natural areas in the A2 scenario; and (3) the greatest urban growth was recognised in the B0 scenario. To verify if the fitting simulations performed well, statistical analysis to measure agreement and quantity-allocation disagreements and a participatory workshop with local stakeholders to validate the achieved results were applied. These outcomes could provide decision-makers with the capacity to observe different possible futures in ‘what if’ scenarios, allowing them to anticipate future uncertainties, and consequently allowing them the possibility to choose the more desirable future

    A remote sensing approach to the quantification of local to global scale social-ecological impacts of anthropogenic landscape changes

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    A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor in Information Management, specialization in Geographic Information SystemsLanduse and Landcover (LULC) is the common aspect that influences several ecological issues, environmental degradations, changes in Land Surface Temperature (LST), hydrological changes and ecosystem function at regional to global level. Research on the drivers and progressions of LULC change has been key to developing models that can project and predict future LULC extent, level and patterns under different assumptions of socioeconomic, ecological and environmental situations. Rapid and extensive urbanization and Urban Sprawl (US), propelled by rapid population growth leads to the shrinkage of productive agricultural lands, boosting mining, decrease in surface permeability and the emergence of Urban Heat Islands (UHI), and in turn, adversely affects the provision of ecosystem services. Mining for resources extraction may lead to geological and associated environmental changes due to ground movements, collision with mining cavities, and deformation of aquifers. Geological changes may continue in a reclaimed mine area, and the deformed aquifers may entail a breakdown of substrates and an increase in ground water tables, which may cause surface area inundation. Consequently, a reclaimed mine area may experience surface area collapse, i.e., subsidence, and degradation of vegetation productivity. The greater changes in LULC, US, LST and vegetation dynamics due to increasing human population not only affects inland forest and wetland, it also directly influences coastal forest lands such as mangroves, peat swamps and riparian forest and threats to ecosystem services. Mangroves provide valuable provisioning (e.g. aquaculture, fisheries, fuel, medicine, textiles), regulation (e.g. shoreline protection, erosion control, climate regulation), supporting (nutrient cycling, nursery habitat), and cultural (recreation and tourism) ecosystem services with an important impact on human well-being. However, the mangrove forest is highly threatened due to climate changes, and human activities which ignore the ecological and economic value of these habitats, contributing to its degradation. There is an increasing number of studies about mangrove distribution, changes and re-establishment activities, denoting a growing attentiveness on the value of these coastal wetland ecosystems. Most of these studies address mangrove degradation drivers at regional or local levels. However, there has not been yet enough assessment on the drivers of mangrove degradation at global level. Thus, complexity of inland and coastal landscape degradation should be addressed using multidisciplinary methodology and conditions. Therefore, this dissertation aimed to assess the impact of LULC associated with vegetation, temperature and wetland changes. To understand the relation among three different types of landscape changes associated with anthropogenic activities: Urbanization, Geological changes and Forest degradation at local to global level, we have selected thirty-three global regions. In chapter 2, We employed the Random Forest (RF) classification on Landsat imageries from 1991, 2003, and 2016, and computed six landscape metrics to delineate the extent of urban areas within a 10km suburban buffer of Chennai city, Tamilnadu, India. The level of US was then quantified using Renyi’s entropy. A land change model was subsequently used to project land cover for 2027. A 70.35% expansion in urban areas was observed mainly towards the suburban periphery of Chennai between 1991 and 2016. The Renyi’s entropy value for year 2016 was 0.9, exhibiting a two-fold level of US when compared to 1991. The spatial metrics values indicate that the existing urban areas became denser and the suburban agricultural, forests and particularly barren lands were transformed into fragmented urban settlements. The forecasted land cover for 2027 indicates a conversion of 13,670.33 ha (16.57% of the total landscape) of existing forests and agricultural lands into urban areas with an associated increase in the entropy value to 1.7, indicating a tremendous level of US. Our study provides useful metrics for urban planning authorities to address the social-ecological consequences of US and to protect ecosystem services. In chapter 3, We studied landscape dynamics in Kirchheller Heide, Germany, which experienced extensive soil movement due to longwall mining without stowing, using Landsat imageries between 2013 and 2016. A Random Forest image classification technique was applied to analyse landuse and landcover dynamics, and the growth of wetland areas was assessed using a Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA). We also analyzed the changes in vegetation productivity using a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We observed a 19.9% growth of wetland area within four years, with 87.2% growth in the coverage of two major waterbodies in the reclaimed mine area. NDVI values indicate that the productivity of 66.5% of vegetation of the Kirchheller Heide was degraded due to changes in ground water tables and surface flooding. Our results inform environmental management and mining reclamation authorities about the subsidence spots and priority mitigation areas from land surface and vegetation degradation in Kirchheller Heide. In chapter 4, We demonstrated the advantage of fusing imageries from multiple sensors for LULC change assessments as well as for assessing surface permeability and temperature and UHI emergence in a fast-growing city, i.e. Tirunelveli, Tamilnadu, India. IRS-LISSIII and Landsat-7 ETM+ imageries were fused for 2007 and 2017, and classified using a Rotation Forest (RF) algorithm. Surface permeability and temperature were then quantified using Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) index, respectively. Finally, we assessed the relationship between SAVI and LST for entire Tirunelveli as well as for each LULC zone, and also detected UHI emergence hot spots using a SAVI-LST combined metric. Our fused images exhibited higher classification accuracies, i.e. overall kappa coefficient values, than non-fused images. We observed an overall increase in the coverage of urban (dry, real estate plots and built-up) areas, while a decrease for vegetated (cropland and forest) areas in Tirunelveli between 2007 and 2017. The SAVI values indicated an extensive decrease in surface permeability for Tirunelveli overall and also for almost all LULC zones. The LST values showed an overall increase of surface temperature in Tirunelveli with the highest increase for urban built-up areas between 2007 and 2017. LST also exhibited a strong negative association with SAVI. South-eastern built-up areas in Tirunelveli were depicted as a potential UHI hotspot, with a caution for the Western riparian zone for UHI emergence in 2017. Our results provide important metrics for surface permeability, temperature and UHI monitoring, and inform urban and zonal planning authorities about the advantages of satellite image fusion. In chapter 5, We identified mangrove degradation drivers at regional and global levels resulted from decades of research data (from 1981 to present) of climate variations (seal-level rising, storms, precipitation, extremely high water events and temperature), and human activities (pollution, wood extraction, aquaculture, agriculture and urban expansion). This information can be useful for future research on mangroves, and to help delineating global planning strategies which consider the correct ecological and economic value of mangroves protecting them from further loss.O uso e a cobertura da Terra (UCT) são o aspeto comum que influencia várias questões ecológicas, degradações ambientais, mudanças na temperatura da superfície terrestre, mudanças hidrológicas, e de funções dos ecossistemas a nível regional e global. A investigação sobre os determinantes e progressão da mudança de UCT tem sido fundamental para o desenvolvimento de modelos que podem projetar e prever a extensão, o nível e os padrões futuros de UCT sob diferentes hipóteses de situações socioeconómicas, ecológicas e ambientais. A rápida e extensa urbanização e expansão urbana impulsionada pelo rápido crescimento populacional, levou ao encolhimento de terras agrícolas produtivas, impulsionando a mineração, a diminuição da permeabilidade da superfície e o surgimento de ilhas urbanas. Por outro lado, tem afetado negativamente a produção de serviços de ecossistemas. A mineração para extração de recursos pode levar a mudanças geológicas e ambientais devido a movimentos do solo, colisão com cavidades de mineração e deformação de aquíferos. As mudanças geológicas podem continuar numa área de mina recuperada, e os aquíferos deformados podem acarretar uma quebra de substratos e um aumento nos lençóis freáticos, causando a inundação na superfície. Consequentemente, uma área de mina recuperada pode sofrer um colapso à superfície, provocando o afundamento e a degradação da produtividade da vegetação. As mudanças na UCT, no crescimento urbano rápido, na temperatura da superfície terrestre e na dinâmica da vegetação devido ao aumento da população humana não afetam apenas a floresta interior e as zonas húmidas. Estas também influenciam diretamente as terras florestais costeiras, tais como mangais, pântanos e florestas ribeirinhas, ameaçando os serviços de ecossistemas. Os mangais proporcionam um aprovisionamento valioso (por exemplo, aquacultura, pesca, combustível, medicamentos, têxteis), a regulação (por exemplo, proteção da linha de costa, controlo da erosão, regulação do clima), os serviços de ecossistema de apoio (ciclo de nutrientes, habitats) e culturais (recreação e turismo) com um impacto importante no bem-estar humano. No entanto, a floresta de mangal é altamente ameaçada devido às mudanças climáticas e às atividades humanas que ignoram o valor ecológico e económico desses habitats, contribuindo para a sua degradação. Há um número crescente de estudos sobre distribuição, mudança e atividades de restabelecimento de mangais, denotando uma crescente atenção sobre o valor desses ecossistemas costeiros de zonas húmidas. A maioria desses estudos aborda os fatores de degradação dos mangais a nível regional ou local. No entanto, ainda não há avaliação suficiente sobre os determinantes da degradação dos mangais a nível global. Assim, a complexidade da degradação da paisagem interior e costeira deve ser abordada usando uma metodologia multidisciplinar. Portanto, esta dissertação teve, também, como objetivo avaliar o impacto do UCT associado à vegetação, temperatura e mudanças de zonas húmidas. Para compreender a relação entre a dinâmica da paisagem associada às atividades antrópicas a nível local e global, selecionámos quatro áreas de estudo, duas da Ásia, uma da Europa e outro estudo a nível global. No capítulo 2, empregamos a classificação Random Forest (RF) nas imagens Landsat de 1991, 2003 e 2016, e computamos seis métricas de paisagem para delinear a extensão das áreas urbanas numa área de influência suburbana de 10 km da cidade de Chennai, Tamil Nadu, Índia. O nível de crescimento urbano rápido foi quantificado usando a entropia de Renyi. Um modelo de UCT foi posteriormente usado para projetar a cobertura de terra para 2027. Uma expansão de 70,35% nas áreas urbanas foi observada principalmente para a periferia suburbana de Chennai entre 1991 e 2016. O valor de entropia do Renyi para 2016 foi de 0,9, exibindo uma duplicação do nível de crescimento urbano rápido quando comparado com 1991. Os valores das métricas espaciais indicam que as áreas urbanas existentes se tornaram mais densas e as terras agrícolas, florestas e terras particularmente áridas foram transformadas em assentamentos urbanos fragmentados. A previsão de cobertura da Terra para 2027 indica uma conversão de 13.670,33 ha (16,57% da paisagem total) de florestas e terras agrícolas existentes em áreas urbanas, com um aumento associado no valor de entropia para 1,7, indicando um tremendo nível de crescimento urbano rápido. O nosso estudo fornece métricas úteis para as autoridades de planeamento urbano para lidarem com as consequências socio-ecológicas do crescimento urbano rápido e para proteger os serviços de ecossistemas. No capítulo 3, estudamos a dinâmica da paisagem em Kirchheller Heide, Alemanha, que experimentou um movimento extensivo do solo devido à mineração, usando imagens Landsat entre 2013 e 2016. Uma técnica de classificação de imagem Random Forest foi aplicada para analisar dinâmicas de UCT e o crescimento das áreas de zonas húmidas foi avaliado usando uma Análise de Mistura Espectral. Também analisámos as mudanças na produtividade da vegetação usando um Índice de Vegetação por Diferença Normalizada (NDVI). Observámos um crescimento de 19,9% da área húmida em quatro anos, com um crescimento de 87,2% de dois principais corpos de água na área de mina recuperada. Valores de NDVI indicam que a produtividade de 66,5% da vegetação de Kirchheller Heide foi degradada devido a mudanças nos lençóis freáticos e inundações superficiais. Os resultados informam as autoridades de gestão ambiental e recuperação de mineração sobre os pontos de subsidência e áreas de mitigação prioritárias da degradação da superfície e da vegetação da terra em Kirchheller Heide. No capítulo 4, demonstramos a vantagem de fusionar imagens de múltiplos sensores para avaliações de mudanças de UCT, bem como para avaliar a permeabilidade, temperatura da superfície e a emergência do ilhas de calor numa cidade em rápido crescimento, Tirunelveli, Tamilnadu, Índia. As imagens IRS-LISSIII e Landsat-7 ETM + foram fusionadas para 2007 e 2017, e classificadas usando um algoritmo de Random Forest (RF). A permeabilidade de superfície e a temperatura foram então quantificadas usando-se o Índice de Vegetação Ajustada pelo Solo (SAVI) e o Índice de Temperatura da Superfície Terrestre (LST), respectivamente. Finalmente, avaliamos a relação entre SAVI e LST para Tirunelveli, bem como para cada zona de UCT, e também detetamos a emergência de pontos quentes de emergência usando uma métrica combinada de SAVI-LST. As nossas imagens fusionadas exibiram precisões de classificação mais altas, ou seja, valores globais do coeficiente kappa, do que as imagens não fusionadas. Observámos um aumento geral na cobertura de áreas urbanas (áreas de terrenos secos e construídas), e uma diminuição de áreas com vegetação (plantações e florestas) em Tirunelveli entre 2007 e 2017. Os valores de SAVI indicaram uma extensa diminuição na superfície de permeabilidade para Tirunelveli e também para quase todas as classes de UCT. Os valores de LST mostraram um aumento global da temperatura da superfície em Tirunelveli, sendo o maior aumento para as áreas urbanas entre 2007 e 2017. O LST também apresentou uma forte associação negativa com o SAVI. As áreas urbanas do Sudeste de Tirunelveli foram representadas como um potencial ponto quente, com uma chamada de atenção para a zona ribeirinha ocidental onde foi verificada a emergência de uma ilha de calor em 2017. Os nossos resultados fornecem métricas importantes sobre a permeabilidade da superfície, temperatura e monitoramento de ilhas de calor e informam as autoridades de planeamento sobre as vantagens da fusão de imagens de satélite. No capítulo 5, identificamos os fatores de degradação dos mangais a nível regional e global resultantes de décadas de dados de investigação (de 1981 até o presente) de variações climáticas (aumento do nível das águas do mar, tempestades, precipitação, eventos extremos de água e temperatura) e atividades humanas (poluição, extração de madeira, aquacultura, agricultura e expansão urbana). Estas informações podem ser úteis para investigações futuras sobre mangais e para ajudar a delinear estratégias de planeamento global que considerem o valor ecológico e económico dos mangais, protegendo-os de novas perdas
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