Malware in the Future? Forecasting of Analyst Detection of Cyber Events

There have been extensive efforts in government, academia, and industry to anticipate, forecast, and mitigate cyber attacks. A common approach is time-series forecasting of cyber attacks based on data from network telescopes, honeypots, and automated intrusion detection/prevention systems. This research has uncovered key insights such as systematicity in cyber attacks. Here, we propose an alternate perspective of this problem by performing forecasting of attacks that are analyst-detected and -verified occurrences of malware. We call these instances of malware cyber event data. Specifically, our dataset was analyst-detected incidents from a large operational Computer Security Service Provider (CSSP) for the U.S. Department of Defense, which rarely relies only on automated systems. Our data set consists of weekly counts of cyber events over approximately seven years. Since all cyber events were validated by analysts, our dataset is unlikely to have false positives which are often endemic in other sources of data. Further, the higher-quality data could be used for a number for resource allocation, estimation of security resources, and the development of effective risk-management strategies. We used a Bayesian State Space Model for forecasting and found that events one week ahead could be predicted. To quantify bursts, we used a Markov model. Our findings of systematicity in analyst-detected cyber attacks are consistent with previous work using other sources. The advanced information provided by a forecast may help with threat awareness by providing a probable value and range for future cyber events one week ahead. Other potential applications for cyber event forecasting include proactive allocation of resources and capabilities for cyber defense (e.g., analyst staffing and sensor configuration) in CSSPs. Enhanced threat awareness may improve cybersecurity.Comment: Revised version resubmitted to journa

Big-Data-Driven Materials Science and its FAIR Data Infrastructure

This chapter addresses the forth paradigm of materials research -- big-data driven materials science. Its concepts and state-of-the-art are described, and its challenges and chances are discussed. For furthering the field, Open Data and an all-embracing sharing, an efficient data infrastructure, and the rich ecosystem of computer codes used in the community are of critical importance. For shaping this forth paradigm and contributing to the development or discovery of improved and novel materials, data must be what is now called FAIR -- Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Re-purposable/Re-usable. This sets the stage for advances of methods from artificial intelligence that operate on large data sets to find trends and patterns that cannot be obtained from individual calculations and not even directly from high-throughput studies. Recent progress is reviewed and demonstrated, and the chapter is concluded by a forward-looking perspective, addressing important not yet solved challenges.Comment: submitted to the Handbook of Materials Modeling (eds. S. Yip and W. Andreoni), Springer 2018/201

Report from GI-Dagstuhl Seminar 16394: Software Performance Engineering in the DevOps World

This report documents the program and the outcomes of GI-Dagstuhl Seminar 16394 "Software Performance Engineering in the DevOps World". The seminar addressed the problem of performance-aware DevOps. Both, DevOps and performance engineering have been growing trends over the past one to two years, in no small part due to the rise in importance of identifying performance anomalies in the operations (Ops) of cloud and big data systems and feeding these back to the development (Dev). However, so far, the research community has treated software engineering, performance engineering, and cloud computing mostly as individual research areas. We aimed to identify cross-community collaboration, and to set the path for long-lasting collaborations towards performance-aware DevOps. The main goal of the seminar was to bring together young researchers (PhD students in a later stage of their PhD, as well as PostDocs or Junior Professors) in the areas of (i) software engineering, (ii) performance engineering, and (iii) cloud computing and big data to present their current research projects, to exchange experience and expertise, to discuss research challenges, and to develop ideas for future collaborations

Towards an aspect weaving BPEL engine

This position paper proposes the use of dynamic aspects and the visitor design pattern to obtain a highly configurable and extensible BPEL engine. Using these two techniques, the core of this infrastructural software can be customised to meet new requirements and add features such as debugging, execution monitoring, or changing to another Web Service selection policy. Additionally, it can easily be extended to cope with customer-specific BPEL extensions. We propose the use of dynamic aspects not only on the engine itself but also on the workflow in order to tackle the problems of Web Service hot deployment and hot fixes to long running processes. In this way, composing aWeb Service "on-the-fly" means weaving its choreography interface into the workflow

Great SCO2T! Rapid tool for carbon sequestration science, engineering, and economics

CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technology is likely to be widely deployed in coming decades in response to major climate and economics drivers: CCS is part of every clean energy pathway that limits global warming to 2C or less and receives significant CO2 tax credits in the United States. These drivers are likely to stimulate capture, transport, and storage of hundreds of millions or billions of tonnes of CO2 annually. A key part of the CCS puzzle will be identifying and characterizing suitable storage sites for vast amounts of CO2. We introduce a new software tool called SCO2T (Sequestration of CO2 Tool, pronounced "Scott") to rapidly characterizing saline storage reservoirs. The tool is designed to rapidly screen hundreds of thousands of reservoirs, perform sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, and link sequestration engineering (injection rates, reservoir capacities, plume dimensions) to sequestration economics (costs constructed from around 70 separate economic inputs). We describe the novel science developments supporting SCO2T including a new approach to estimating CO2 injection rates and CO2 plume dimensions as well as key advances linking sequestration engineering with economics. Next, we perform a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of geology combinations (including formation depth, thickness, permeability, porosity, and temperature) to understand the impact on carbon sequestration. Through the sensitivity analysis we show that increasing depth and permeability both can lead to increased CO2 injection rates, increased storage potential, and reduced costs, while increasing porosity reduces costs without impacting the injection rate (CO2 is injected at a constant pressure in all cases) by increasing the reservoir capacity.Comment: CO2 capture and storage; carbon sequestration; reduced-order modeling; climate change; economic

Towards Product Lining Model-Driven Development Code Generators

A code generator systematically transforms compact models to detailed code. Today, code generation is regarded as an integral part of model-driven development (MDD). Despite its relevance, the development of code generators is an inherently complex task and common methodologies and architectures are lacking. Additionally, reuse and extension of existing code generators only exist on individual parts. A systematic development and reuse based on a code generator product line is still in its infancy. Thus, the aim of this paper is to identify the mechanism necessary for a code generator product line by (a) analyzing the common product line development approach and (b) mapping those to a code generator specific infrastructure. As a first step towards realizing a code generator product line infrastructure, we present a component-based implementation approach based on ideas of variability-aware module systems and point out further research challenges.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure, Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Model-Driven Engineering and Software Development, pp. 539-545, Angers, France, SciTePress, 201

Planning and Policymaking for Transit-Oriented Development, Transit, and Active Transport in California Cities

This report provides research findings from the first year of a two-year research project on patterns of local policymaking in California to support transit-oriented development (TOD), transit, and active transport. The project aims to assess motivations, perceived obstacles, and priorities for development near transit, in relation to patterns of local policy adoption, from the perspective of city planners in the state’s four largest regions: the San Francisco Bay, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Sacramento metropolitan areas. This first-stage report discusses research and policy context that informed the methodology, findings from the analysis of results from an online survey of city planning directors administered in the spring of 2019, and findings from two case studies of TOD policymaking in urban central cities, namely Los Angeles and Sacramento. A sampling methodology for conducting further case studies of TOD policymaking during the upcoming second phase of the project is also described, based on findings from the first year of the research.View the NCST Project Webpag