Empirical models, rules, and optimization

This paper considers supply decisions by firms in a dynamic setting with adjustment costs and compares the behavior of an optimal control model to that of a rule-based system which relaxes the assumption that agents are explicit optimizers. In our approach, the economic agent uses believably simple rules in coping with complex situations. We estimate rules using an artificially generated sample obtained by running repeated simulations of a dynamic optimal control model of a firm's hiring/firing decisions. We show that (i) agents using heuristics can behave as if they were seeking rationally to maximize their dynamic returns; (ii) the approach requires fewer behavioral assumptions relative to dynamic optimization and the assumptions made are based on economically intuitive theoretical results linking rule adoption to uncertainty; (iii) the approach delineates the domain of applicability of maximization hypotheses and describes the behavior of agents in situations of economic disequilibrium. The approach adopted uses concepts from fuzzy control theory. An agent, instead of optimizing, follows Fuzzy Associative Memory (FAM) rules which, given input and output data, can be estimated and used to approximate any non-linear dynamic process. Empirical results indicate that the fuzzy rule-based system performs extremely well in approximating optimal dynamic behavior in situations with limited noise.Decision-making. ,econometric models ,TMD ,

Study on identification of nonlinear systems using Quasi-ARX models

制度:新 ; 報告番号:甲3660号 ; 学位の種類:博士(工学) ; 授与年月日:2012/9/15 ; 早大学位記番号:新6026Waseda Universit

One-class classifiers based on entropic spanning graphs

One-class classifiers offer valuable tools to assess the presence of outliers in data. In this paper, we propose a design methodology for one-class classifiers based on entropic spanning graphs. Our approach takes into account the possibility to process also non-numeric data by means of an embedding procedure. The spanning graph is learned on the embedded input data and the outcoming partition of vertices defines the classifier. The final partition is derived by exploiting a criterion based on mutual information minimization. Here, we compute the mutual information by using a convenient formulation provided in terms of the $\alpha$-Jensen difference. Once training is completed, in order to associate a confidence level with the classifier decision, a graph-based fuzzy model is constructed. The fuzzification process is based only on topological information of the vertices of the entropic spanning graph. As such, the proposed one-class classifier is suitable also for data characterized by complex geometric structures. We provide experiments on well-known benchmarks containing both feature vectors and labeled graphs. In addition, we apply the method to the protein solubility recognition problem by considering several representations for the input samples. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of the proposed method with respect to other state-of-the-art approaches.Comment: Extended and revised version of the paper "One-Class Classification Through Mutual Information Minimization" presented at the 2016 IEEE IJCNN, Vancouver, Canad

On the use of Process Mining and Machine Learning to support decision making in systems design

Research on process mining and machine learning techniques has recently received a significant amount of attention by product development and management communities. Indeed, these techniques allow both an automatic process and activity discovery and thus are high added value services that help reusing knowledge to support decision-making. This paper proposes a double layer framework aiming to identify the most significant process patterns to be executed depending on the design context. Simultaneously, it proposes the most significant parameters for each activity of the considered process pattern. The framework is applied on a specific design example and is partially implemented.FUI GONTRAN

Mathematical models for operations management

Purpose – The purpose of the doctoral thesis is to support and to facilitate the introduction of lean concepts, in the industry. Design/methodology/approach – Starting from the operating techniques included in the lean toolbox, a comprehensive set of twelve mathematical models for operations management is developed. Since Lean Thinking encompasses the whole organization, the models cover several processes performed by an organization. In particular there are: (i) three models dealing with logistic issues, (ii) five models concerning manufacturing issues, and (iii) four models concerning Total Predictive Maintenance. Findings – The models extend the capabilities of the classical lean tools by means of advanced mathematical techniques such as: fuzzy logic, multi criteria decision making, multivariate statistic and Markov processes. Practical implications – To assure the possibility to adopt the models in real industrial situations, a great effort has been made to maintain all of them as simple and straightforward as possible. Furthermore, all of them have been designed to be easily implemented in industrial information systems, and have been validated by means of industrial applications of relevance. Originality/value – The twelve models here presented provide practitioners with innovative operating tools, which integrate different techniques and overcomes most of the limits of the classical lean tools

Application of expert systems in project management decision aiding

The feasibility of developing an expert systems-based project management decision aid to enhance the performance of NASA project managers was assessed. The research effort included extensive literature reviews in the areas of project management, project management decision aiding, expert systems technology, and human-computer interface engineering. Literature reviews were augmented by focused interviews with NASA managers. Time estimation for project scheduling was identified as the target activity for decision augmentation, and a design was developed for an Integrated NASA System for Intelligent Time Estimation (INSITE). The proposed INSITE design was judged feasible with a low level of risk. A partial proof-of-concept experiment was performed and was successful. Specific conclusions drawn from the research and analyses are included. The INSITE concept is potentially applicable in any management sphere, commercial or government, where time estimation is required for project scheduling. As project scheduling is a nearly universal management activity, the range of possibilities is considerable. The INSITE concept also holds potential for enhancing other management tasks, especially in areas such as cost estimation, where estimation-by-analogy is already a proven method