What Drives People's Choices in Turn-Taking Games, if not Game-Theoretic Rationality?

In an earlier experiment, participants played a perfect information game against a computer, which was programmed to deviate often from its backward induction strategy right at the beginning of the game. Participants knew that in each game, the computer was nevertheless optimizing against some belief about the participant's future strategy. In the aggregate, it appeared that participants applied forward induction. However, cardinal effects seemed to play a role as well: a number of participants might have been trying to maximize expected utility. In order to find out how people really reason in such a game, we designed centipede-like turn-taking games with new payoff structures in order to make such cardinal effects less likely. We ran a new experiment with 50 participants, based on marble drop visualizations of these revised payoff structures. After participants played 48 test games, we asked a number of questions to gauge the participants' reasoning about their own and the opponent's strategy at all decision nodes of a sample game. We also checked how the verbalized strategies fit to the actual choices they made at all their decision points in the 48 test games. Even though in the aggregate, participants in the new experiment still tend to slightly favor the forward induction choice at their first decision node, their verbalized strategies most often depend on their own attitudes towards risk and those they assign to the computer opponent, sometimes in addition to considerations about cooperativeness and competitiveness.Comment: In Proceedings TARK 2017, arXiv:1707.0825

Gaming techniques and the product development process : commonalities and cross-applications

The use of computer-based tools is now firmly embedded within the product development process, providing a wide range of uses from visualisation to analysis. However, the specialisation required to make effective use of these tools has led to the compartmentalisation of expertise in design teams, resulting in communication problems between individual members. This paper therefore considers how computer gaming techniques and strategies could be used to enhance communication and group design activities throughout the product design process

Developing Artificial Intelligence Agents for a Turn-Based Imperfect Information Game

Artificial intelligence (AI) is often employed to play games, whether to entertain human opponents, devise and test strategies, or obtain other analytical data. Games with hidden information require specific approaches by the player. As a result, the AI must be equipped with methods of operating without certain important pieces of information while being aware of the resulting potential dangers. The computer game GNaT was designed as a testbed for AI strategies dealing specifically with imperfect information. Its development and functionality are described, and the results of testing several strategies through AI agents are discussed

Human-Agent Decision-making: Combining Theory and Practice

Extensive work has been conducted both in game theory and logic to model strategic interaction. An important question is whether we can use these theories to design agents for interacting with people? On the one hand, they provide a formal design specification for agent strategies. On the other hand, people do not necessarily adhere to playing in accordance with these strategies, and their behavior is affected by a multitude of social and psychological factors. In this paper we will consider the question of whether strategies implied by theories of strategic behavior can be used by automated agents that interact proficiently with people. We will focus on automated agents that we built that need to interact with people in two negotiation settings: bargaining and deliberation. For bargaining we will study game-theory based equilibrium agents and for argumentation we will discuss logic-based argumentation theory. We will also consider security games and persuasion games and will discuss the benefits of using equilibrium based agents.Comment: In Proceedings TARK 2015, arXiv:1606.0729

A Survey of Monte Carlo Tree Search Methods

Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) is a recently proposed search method that combines the precision of tree search with the generality of random sampling. It has received considerable interest due to its spectacular success in the difficult problem of computer Go, but has also proved beneficial in a range of other domains. This paper is a survey of the literature to date, intended to provide a snapshot of the state of the art after the first five years of MCTS research. We outline the core algorithm's derivation, impart some structure on the many variations and enhancements that have been proposed, and summarize the results from the key game and nongame domains to which MCTS methods have been applied. A number of open research questions indicate that the field is ripe for future work

Aligning operational and corporate goals: a case study in cultivating a whole-of-business approach using a supply chain simulation game

This paper outlines the development and use of an interactive computer-based supply chain game to facilitate the alignment of disconnected operational and corporate goals. A multi-enterprise internal cattle supply chain was simulated targeting the operational property managers and the overall impacts of their decision making on corporate goals A three stage multidisciplinary approach was used. A case study based financial analysis was undertaken across the internal cattle supply chain, a participative action research component (developing the game to simulate the flow of product and associated decisions and financial transactions through the internal supply chain of the company for different operational scenarios using measurable and familiar operational and financial criteria as tracking tools), and a qualitative analysis of organisational learning through player debriefing following playing the game. Evaluation of the managers' learning around the need for a change in general practice to address goal incongruence was positive evidenced by changes in practice and the game regarded by the users as a useful form of organisational training. The game provided property managers with practical insights into the strategic implications of their enterprise level decisions on the internal supply chain and on overall corporate performance. The game is unique and is a tool that can be used to help address an endemic problem across multi-enterprise industries in the agrifood sector in Australia

Unmasking Clever Hans Predictors and Assessing What Machines Really Learn

Current learning machines have successfully solved hard application problems, reaching high accuracy and displaying seemingly "intelligent" behavior. Here we apply recent techniques for explaining decisions of state-of-the-art learning machines and analyze various tasks from computer vision and arcade games. This showcases a spectrum of problem-solving behaviors ranging from naive and short-sighted, to well-informed and strategic. We observe that standard performance evaluation metrics can be oblivious to distinguishing these diverse problem solving behaviors. Furthermore, we propose our semi-automated Spectral Relevance Analysis that provides a practically effective way of characterizing and validating the behavior of nonlinear learning machines. This helps to assess whether a learned model indeed delivers reliably for the problem that it was conceived for. Furthermore, our work intends to add a voice of caution to the ongoing excitement about machine intelligence and pledges to evaluate and judge some of these recent successes in a more nuanced manner.Comment: Accepted for publication in Nature Communication