Innovative big data integrationand analysis techniques for urban hazard management

PhD ThesisModern early warning systems (EWS) require sophisticated knowledge of natural hazards, the urban context and underlying risk factors to enable dynamic and timely decision making (e.g., hazard detection, hazard preparedness). Landslides are a common form of natural hazard with a global impact and are closely linked to a variety of other hazards. EWS for landslide prediction and detection relies on scienti c methods and models which require input from the time-series data, such as the earth observation (EO) and ancillary data. Such data sets are produced by a variety of remote sensing satellites and Internet of Things sensors which are deployed in landslide-prone areas. Besides, social media-based time-series data has played a signi cant role in modern disaster management. The emergence of social media has led to the possibility of the general public contributing to the monitoring of natural hazard by reporting incidents related to hazard events. To this end, the data integration and analysis of potential time-series data sources in EWS applications have become a challenge due to the complexity and high variety of data sources. Moreover, sophisticated domain knowledge of natural hazards and risk management are also required to enable dynamic and timely decision making about serious hazards. In this thesis, a comprehensive set of algorithmic techniques for managing high varieties of time series data from heterogeneous data sources is investigated. A novel ontology, namely Landslip Ontology, is proposed to provide a knowledge base that establishes the relationship between landslide hazard and EO and ancillary data sources to support data integration for EWS applications. Moreover, an ontology-based data integration and analytics system that includes human in the loop of hazard information acquisition from social media is proposed to establish a deeper and more accurate situational awareness of hazard events. Finally, the system is extended to enable an interaction between natural hazard EWS and electrical grid EWS to contribute to electrical grid network monitoring and support decision-making for electrical grid infrastructure management

A holistic model of emergency evacuations in large, complex, public occupancy buildings

Evacuations are crucial for ensuring the safety of building occupants in the event of an emergency. In large, complex, public occupancy buildings (LCPOBs) these procedures are significantly more complex than the simple withdrawal of people from a building. This thesis has developed a novel, holistic, theoretical model of emergency evacuations in LCPOBs inspired by systems safety theory. LCPOBs are integral components of complex socio-technical systems, and therefore the model describes emergency evacuations as control actions initiated in order to return the building from an unsafe state to a safe state where occupants are not at risk of harm. The emergency evacuation process itself is comprised of four aspects - the movement (of building occupants), planning and management, environmental features, and evacuee behaviour. To demonstrate its utility and applicability, the model has been employed to examine various aspects of evacuation procedures in two example LCPOBs - airport terminals, and sports stadiums. The types of emergency events initiating evacuations in these buildings were identified through a novel hazard analysis procedure, which utilised online news articles to create events databases of previous evacuations. Security and terrorism events, false alarms, and fires were found to be the most common cause of evacuations in these buildings. The management of evacuations was explored through model-based systems engineering techniques, which identified the communication methods and responsibilities of staff members managing these events. Social media posts for an active shooting event were analysed using qualitative and machine learning methods to determine their utility for situational awareness. This data source is likely not informative for this purpose, as few posts detail occupant behaviours. Finally, an experimental study on pedestrian dynamics with movement devices was conducted, which determined that walking speeds during evacuations were unaffected by evacuees dragging luggage, but those pushing pushchairs and wheelchairs will walk significantly slower.Open Acces

Institutional Stretching: How Moroccan NGOs Illuminate the Nexus of Climate, Migration, Gender and Development

The global migration crisis the world has experienced thus far is only the tip of the iceberg. As the earth’s temperature continues to warm and extreme weather conditions worsen, millions of people across the globe will be displaced, and women in particular will face more difficult challenges. What the climate migration literature fails to study is these longer-term impacts beyond sudden onset disasters. Governments and institutions will be forced to respond and adapt to the new reality resulting from the climate crisis. This research provides a case study of Morocco and, by using institutional ethnography, investigates how NGOs working in areas of development, gender and the environment are responding and adapting to the growing concerns of climate change in a country that is already seeing an increase in rural-to-urban migration flows due to the troubles of the agriculture industry. Moroccan girls are also at greater risk of child marriage and labor exploitation as a result of drought and the water crisis. Are NGOs becoming more aware of this nexus between climate, migration, gender and development? And to what extent are NGOs being stretched beyond their mandates in order to address their community’s pressing needs? My study of 30 NGOs’ online presence shows that Moroccan organizations are consciously aware that their work indirectly addresses the impacts of climate migration, but they do this unintentionally. The NGOs choose to put climate migration on the back-burner in order to fulfill short-term needs. This study provides a micro-level view that represents a much bigger problem of climate inaction at the global level

Fishing for Politics?:Civil society activism and environmental politicisation in Vietnam

In Southeast Asia, a region marked with a strong legacy of authoritarian regimes, scholars have focused on struggles of environmentalism in either illiberal democracies or communist states like Vietnam. In Vietnam and China, formal NGOs as well as grassroots activists need to overcome restrictions from the central government. Such a context would hamper any confrontational tactics of civil society actors and, thus, require a more discreet modus operandi from activists, working through personal and institutionalised networks. However, recent literature has suggested moving beyond this ‘first-generation’ discreet approach to civil society under authoritarianism, advocating for understanding of the wider opportunities and difficulties posed by new methods and technologies to challenge the status quo and advocate for change.This dissertation highlights how environmental politicisation under political oppression can be unearthed in a way that is helpful for a more nuanced understanding of contemporary activism in Vietnam and beyond. I drew empirical insights from cases of environmental activism to reveal the complexity and multiple dimensions within the broad umbrella of 'civil society activism in Vietnam', where a lack of explicit and public activism is assumed to be the political norm. Overall, this dissertation provides a critical reflection on environmental politicisation in authoritarian contexts. It seeks to understand environmental politicisation at the intersection of social movements, spatial planning, and political ecology. In doing so, it investigates the complex conditions that makes (environmental) activism possible under authoritarianism

Information use and decision-making for evacuation at Fuego volcano, Guatemala

For populations living with risk to rapid-onset environmental hazards, an effective early warning system (EWS) may be the most viable short- to mid-term solution for risk reduction. At Fuego volcano, Guatemala, more than 60,000 people distributed between more than 30 small communities live within the identified hazard zones for pyroclastic density currents (PDCS), highly lethal hot avalanches and surges of volcanic gases, rock, and ash. Despite ongoing risk reduction efforts by scientific and civil protection authorities, more than 400 people died during a paroxysmal eruption on 3 June 2018 when PDCs reached populated areas. A high-end resort, La Reunión, evacuated before the climactic PDCs, suffering no casualties, while the town of San Miguel Los Lotes did not, resulting in the loss of possibly 40% or more of its population. Since that event, paroxysmal eruptions continue to threaten the communities on Fuego’s slopes. This dissertation uses a mix of ethnographic and other source analysis methods to address the following broad questions pertaining to a single case study: · What information was available for evacuation decision-making leading up to the deadly 3 June 2018 pyroclastic density currents, how was it used by key stakeholders, and how did the ability to use this information impact the outcomes for La Reunión and San Miguel Los Lotes? · Are evacuation decision-making practices since the 3 June 2018 disaster sufficient to avert disaster in a paroxysm of similar characteristics? · How do cultural gender expectations impact evacuation strategies and how can women’s experiences in evacuation inform future risk reduction strategies? Results of these three studies indicate that the two government agencies were unable to fulfill their responsibilities of knowledge generation and decision-making during the crisis and the town of San Miguel Los Lotes was unequipped to make crucial evacuation decisions without this external support, while the La Reunión resort was able to evacuate independently. Current crisis management practices would be too slow and geographically too limited to avert a disaster with characteristics, including an escalation timeline, similar to that of the June 2018 eruption, in part because the system does not have well-defined acceptable risk thresholds on which to base evacuation decisions and no clear criteria for decision-making. Because communities prioritize women, children, and the elderly for evacuation while men stay behind to protect property, evacuations disproportionately leave men exposed to the threat and place the burden of evacuation with large families on the women. This research demonstrates the importance of explicitly including decision-making processes, resources and infrastructure for taking protective actions, and consideration of competing risks into EWS models. To be effective, an EWS must be designed within the limitations of the scientific, technological, economic, and socio-political context in which it operates