Estimating Impact and Frequency of Risks to Safety and Mission Critical Systems Using CVSS

Many safety and mission critical systems depend on the correct and secure operation of both supportive and core software systems. E.g., both the safety of personnel and the effective execution of core missions on an oil platform depend on the correct recording storing, transfer and interpretation of data, such as that for the Logging While Drilling (LWD) and Measurement While Drilling (MWD) subsystems. Here, data is recorded on site, packaged and then transferred to an on-shore operational centre. Today, the data is transferred on dedicated communication channels to ensure a secure and safe transfer, free from deliberately and accidental faults. However, as the cost control is ever more important some of the transfer will be over remotely accessible infrastructure in the future. Thus, communication will be prone to known security vulnerabilities exploitable by outsiders. This paper presents a model that estimates risk level of known vulnerabilities as a combination of frequency and impact estimates derived from the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The model is implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)

Estimating ToE Risk Level using CVSS

Security management is about calculated risk and requires continuous evaluation to ensure cost, time and resource effectiveness. Parts of which is to make future-oriented, cost-benefit investments in security. Security investments must adhere to healthy business principles where both security and financial aspects play an important role. Information on the current and potential risk level is essential to successfully trade-off security and financial aspects. Risk level is the combination of the frequency and impact of a potential unwanted event, often referred to as a security threat or misuse. The paper presents a risk level estimation model that derives risk level as a conditional probability over frequency and impact estimates. The frequency and impact estimates are derived from a set of attributes specified in the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The model works on the level of vulnerabilities (just as the CVSS) and is able to compose vulnerabilities into service levels. The service levels define the potential risk levels and are modelled as a Markov process, which are then used to predict the risk level at a particular time

A Security, Privacy and Trust Methodology for IIoT

The implements of IoT and industrial IoT (IIoT) are increasingly becoming the consensus with Industry 4.0. Relevant data-driven methodologies are typically concentrated on the scoring systems of CVE prioritization schemes, the scoring formulas of CVSS metrics, and other vulnerability impact factors. However, these prioritized lists such as the CWE/SANS Top 25 suffer from a critical weakness: they fail to consider empirical evidence of exploits. Considering the distinct properties and specific risks of SCADA systems in IIoT, this paper overcomes the inherent limitation of IIoT empirical research which is the sample size of exploits by collecting data manually. This study then developed an exploits factors-embedded regression model to statistically access the significant relationships between security, privacy, and trust-based vulnerability attributes. Through this data-driven empirical methodology, the study elucidated the interactions of security, privacy, and trust in IIoT with professional quantitative indicators, which would provide grounds for substantial further related work. In addition to the security privacy and trust regression analysis, this study further explores the impact of IoT and IIoT by difference-in-difference (DID) approach, applying bootstrap standard error with Kernel option and quantile DID test to evaluate the robustness of DID model. In general, the empirical results indicated that: 1) the CVSS score of vulnerability is irrelevant to the disclosure of exploits, but is positively correlated with CWEs by Density and CVE year, 2) among the exploits of SCADA-related authors, the more identical CWEs that exist in these exploits, the higher the CVSS score of the exploit CVE will be, and CVE year has a negative moderating effect within this relationship; 3) the CVSS scores of SCADA exploits have significantly decreased in comparison with non-SCADA after the promulgation of Industry 4.0

Attack graph approach to dynamic network vulnerability analysis and countermeasures

A thesis submitted to the University of Bedfordshire, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of PhilosophyIt is widely accepted that modern computer networks (often presented as a heterogeneous collection of functioning organisations, applications, software, and hardware) contain vulnerabilities. This research proposes a new methodology to compute a dynamic severity cost for each state. Here a state refers to the behaviour of a system during an attack; an example of a state is where an attacker could influence the information on an application to alter the credentials. This is performed by utilising a modified variant of the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS), referred to as a Dynamic Vulnerability Scoring System (DVSS). This calculates scores of intrinsic, time-based, and ecological metrics by combining related sub-scores and modelling the problem’s parameters into a mathematical framework to develop a unique severity cost. The individual static nature of CVSS affects the scoring value, so the author has adapted a novel model to produce a DVSS metric that is more precise and efficient. In this approach, different parameters are used to compute the final scores determined from a number of parameters including network architecture, device setting, and the impact of vulnerability interactions. An attack graph (AG) is a security model representing the chains of vulnerability exploits in a network. A number of researchers have acknowledged the attack graph visual complexity and a lack of in-depth understanding. Current attack graph tools are constrained to only limited attributes or even rely on hand-generated input. The automatic formation of vulnerability information has been troublesome and vulnerability descriptions are frequently created by hand, or based on limited data. The network architectures and configurations along with the interactions between the individual vulnerabilities are considered in the method of computing the Cost using the DVSS and a dynamic cost-centric framework. A new methodology was built up to present an attack graph with a dynamic cost metric based on DVSS and also a novel methodology to estimate and represent the cost-centric approach for each host’ states was followed out. A framework is carried out on a test network, using the Nessus scanner to detect known vulnerabilities, implement these results and to build and represent the dynamic cost centric attack graph using ranking algorithms (in a standardised fashion to Mehta et al. 2006 and Kijsanayothin, 2010). However, instead of using vulnerabilities for each host, a CostRank Markov Model has developed utilising a novel cost-centric approach, thereby reducing the complexity in the attack graph and reducing the problem of visibility. An analogous parallel algorithm is developed to implement CostRank. The reason for developing a parallel CostRank Algorithm is to expedite the states ranking calculations for the increasing number of hosts and/or vulnerabilities. In the same way, the author intends to secure large scale networks that require fast and reliable computing to calculate the ranking of enormous graphs with thousands of vertices (states) and millions of arcs (representing an action to move from one state to another). In this proposed approach, the focus on a parallel CostRank computational architecture to appraise the enhancement in CostRank calculations and scalability of of the algorithm. In particular, a partitioning of input data, graph files and ranking vectors with a load balancing technique can enhance the performance and scalability of CostRank computations in parallel. A practical model of analogous CostRank parallel calculation is undertaken, resulting in a substantial decrease in calculations communication levels and in iteration time. The results are presented in an analytical approach in terms of scalability, efficiency, memory usage, speed up and input/output rates. Finally, a countermeasures model is developed to protect against network attacks by using a Dynamic Countermeasures Attack Tree (DCAT). The following scheme is used to build DCAT tree (i) using scalable parallel CostRank Algorithm to determine the critical asset, that system administrators need to protect; (ii) Track the Nessus scanner to determine the vulnerabilities associated with the asset using the dynamic cost centric framework and DVSS; (iii) Check out all published mitigations for all vulnerabilities. (iv) Assess how well the security solution mitigates those risks; (v) Assess DCAT algorithm in terms of effective security cost, probability and cost/benefit analysis to reduce the total impact of a specific vulnerability

Analysis of the NIST database towards the composition of vulnerabilities in attack scenarios

The composition of vulnerabilities in attack scenarios has been traditionally performed based on detailed pre- and post-conditions. Although very precise, this approach is dependent on human analysis, is time consuming, and not at all scalable. We investigate the NIST National Vulnerability Database (NVD) with three goals: (i) understand the associations among vulnerability attributes related to impact, exploitability, privilege, type of vulnerability and clues derived from plaintext descriptions, (ii) validate our initial composition model which is based on required access and resulting effect, and (iii) investigate the maturity of XML database technology for performing statistical analyses like this directly on the XML data. In this report, we analyse 27,273 vulnerability entries (CVE 1) from the NVD. Using only nominal information, we are able to e.g. identify clusters in the class of vulnerabilities with no privilege which represent 52% of the entries

Risk Assessment in IT Infrastructure

Due to large-scale digitization of data and information in various application domains, the evolution of ubiquitous computing platforms and the growth and usage of the Internet, industries are moving towards a new era of technology. With this revolution, the IT infrastructure of industries is rapidly undergoing a continuous change. However, the insecure communication channel; intelligent adversaries in and out of the scene; and loopholes in the software and system development add complexity in deployment of the IT infrastructure in place. In addition, the heterogeneous service level requirements from the customers, service providers, users, along with implementation policies in industries add complexity to this problem. Hence, it is necessary to assess the risk associated with the deployment of the IT infrastructure in industries to ensure the security of the assets involved. In this chapter, we present an efficient risk assessment mechanism in IT infrastructure deployment in industries, which ensures a strong security perimeter over the underlying organizational resources