Development of Neurofuzzy Architectures for Electricity Price Forecasting

In 20th century, many countries have liberalized their electricity market. This power markets liberalization has directed generation companies as well as wholesale buyers to undertake a greater intense risk exposure compared to the old centralized framework. In this framework, electricity price prediction has become crucial for any market player in their decision‐making process as well as strategic planning. In this study, a prototype asymmetric‐based neuro‐fuzzy network (AGFINN) architecture has been implemented for short‐term electricity prices forecasting for ISO New England market. AGFINN framework has been designed through two different defuzzification schemes. Fuzzy clustering has been explored as an initial step for defining the fuzzy rules while an asymmetric Gaussian membership function has been utilized in the fuzzification part of the model. Results related to the minimum and maximum electricity prices for ISO New England, emphasize the superiority of the proposed model over well‐established learning‐based models

kk-means clustering of extremes

The $k$-means clustering algorithm and its variant, the spherical $k$-means clustering, are among the most important and popular methods in unsupervised learning and pattern detection. In this paper, we explore how the spherical $k$-means algorithm can be applied in the analysis of only the extremal observations from a data set. By making use of multivariate extreme value analysis we show how it can be adopted to find "prototypes" of extremal dependence and we derive a consistency result for our suggested estimator. In the special case of max-linear models we show furthermore that our procedure provides an alternative way of statistical inference for this class of models. Finally, we provide data examples which show that our method is able to find relevant patterns in extremal observations and allows us to classify extremal events

Network anomaly detection: a survey and comparative analysis of stochastic and deterministic methods

7 pages. 1 more figure than final CDC 2013 versionWe present five methods to the problem of network anomaly detection. These methods cover most of the common techniques in the anomaly detection field, including Statistical Hypothesis Tests (SHT), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and clustering analysis. We evaluate all methods in a simulated network that consists of nominal data, three flow-level anomalies and one packet-level attack. Through analyzing the results, we point out the advantages and disadvantages of each method and conclude that combining the results of the individual methods can yield improved anomaly detection results

Dynamic Tensor Clustering

Dynamic tensor data are becoming prevalent in numerous applications. Existing tensor clustering methods either fail to account for the dynamic nature of the data, or are inapplicable to a general-order tensor. Also there is often a gap between statistical guarantee and computational efficiency for existing tensor clustering solutions. In this article, we aim to bridge this gap by proposing a new dynamic tensor clustering method, which takes into account both sparsity and fusion structures, and enjoys strong statistical guarantees as well as high computational efficiency. Our proposal is based upon a new structured tensor factorization that encourages both sparsity and smoothness in parameters along the specified tensor modes. Computationally, we develop a highly efficient optimization algorithm that benefits from substantial dimension reduction. In theory, we first establish a non-asymptotic error bound for the estimator from the structured tensor factorization. Built upon this error bound, we then derive the rate of convergence of the estimated cluster centers, and show that the estimated clusters recover the true cluster structures with a high probability. Moreover, our proposed method can be naturally extended to co-clustering of multiple modes of the tensor data. The efficacy of our approach is illustrated via simulations and a brain dynamic functional connectivity analysis from an Autism spectrum disorder study.Comment: Accepted at Journal of the American Statistical Associatio

Machine Learning for Neuroimaging with Scikit-Learn

Statistical machine learning methods are increasingly used for neuroimaging data analysis. Their main virtue is their ability to model high-dimensional datasets, e.g. multivariate analysis of activation images or resting-state time series. Supervised learning is typically used in decoding or encoding settings to relate brain images to behavioral or clinical observations, while unsupervised learning can uncover hidden structures in sets of images (e.g. resting state functional MRI) or find sub-populations in large cohorts. By considering different functional neuroimaging applications, we illustrate how scikit-learn, a Python machine learning library, can be used to perform some key analysis steps. Scikit-learn contains a very large set of statistical learning algorithms, both supervised and unsupervised, and its application to neuroimaging data provides a versatile tool to study the brain.Comment: Frontiers in neuroscience, Frontiers Research Foundation, 2013, pp.1