Penalized nonparametric mean square estimation of the coefficients of diffusion processes

We consider a one-dimensional diffusion process $(X_t)$ which is observed at $n+1$ discrete times with regular sampling interval $\Delta$. Assuming that $(X_t)$ is strictly stationary, we propose nonparametric estimators of the drift and diffusion coefficients obtained by a penalized least squares approach. Our estimators belong to a finite-dimensional function space whose dimension is selected by a data-driven method. We provide non-asymptotic risk bounds for the estimators. When the sampling interval tends to zero while the number of observations and the length of the observation time interval tend to infinity, we show that our estimators reach the minimax optimal rates of convergence. Numerical results based on exact simulations of diffusion processes are given for several examples of models and illustrate the qualities of our estimation algorithms.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/07-BEJ5173 in the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Score Function Features for Discriminative Learning: Matrix and Tensor Framework

Feature learning forms the cornerstone for tackling challenging learning problems in domains such as speech, computer vision and natural language processing. In this paper, we consider a novel class of matrix and tensor-valued features, which can be pre-trained using unlabeled samples. We present efficient algorithms for extracting discriminative information, given these pre-trained features and labeled samples for any related task. Our class of features are based on higher-order score functions, which capture local variations in the probability density function of the input. We establish a theoretical framework to characterize the nature of discriminative information that can be extracted from score-function features, when used in conjunction with labeled samples. We employ efficient spectral decomposition algorithms (on matrices and tensors) for extracting discriminative components. The advantage of employing tensor-valued features is that we can extract richer discriminative information in the form of an overcomplete representations. Thus, we present a novel framework for employing generative models of the input for discriminative learning.Comment: 29 page

Solving linear parabolic rough partial differential equations

We study linear rough partial differential equations in the setting of [Friz and Hairer, Springer, 2014, Chapter 12]. More precisely, we consider a linear parabolic partial differential equation driven by a deterministic rough path $\mathbf{W}$ of H\"older regularity $\alpha$ with $1/3 < \alpha \le 1/2$. Based on a stochastic representation of the solution of the rough partial differential equation, we propose a regression Monte Carlo algorithm for spatio-temporal approximation of the solution. We provide a full convergence analysis of the proposed approximation method which essentially relies on the new bounds for the higher order derivatives of the solution in space. Finally, a comprehensive simulation study showing the applicability of the proposed algorithm is presented

Efficient Localization of Discontinuities in Complex Computational Simulations

Surrogate models for computational simulations are input-output approximations that allow computationally intensive analyses, such as uncertainty propagation and inference, to be performed efficiently. When a simulation output does not depend smoothly on its inputs, the error and convergence rate of many approximation methods deteriorate substantially. This paper details a method for efficiently localizing discontinuities in the input parameter domain, so that the model output can be approximated as a piecewise smooth function. The approach comprises an initialization phase, which uses polynomial annihilation to assign function values to different regions and thus seed an automated labeling procedure, followed by a refinement phase that adaptively updates a kernel support vector machine representation of the separating surface via active learning. The overall approach avoids structured grids and exploits any available simplicity in the geometry of the separating surface, thus reducing the number of model evaluations required to localize the discontinuity. The method is illustrated on examples of up to eleven dimensions, including algebraic models and ODE/PDE systems, and demonstrates improved scaling and efficiency over other discontinuity localization approaches

Robust Stability Analysis of Nonlinear Hybrid Systems

We present a methodology for robust stability analysis of nonlinear hybrid systems, through the algorithmic construction of polynomial and piecewise polynomial Lyapunov-like functions using convex optimization and in particular the sum of squares decomposition of multivariate polynomials. Several improvements compared to previous approaches are discussed, such as treating in a unified way polynomial switching surfaces and robust stability analysis for nonlinear hybrid systems