A simulation model for public bike-sharing systems

Urban areas are in need of efficient and sustainable mobility services. Public bicycle sharing systems stand out as a promising alternative and many cities have invested in their deployment. This has led to a continuous and fast implementation of these systems around the world, while at the same time, research works devoted to understand the system dynamics and deriving optimal designs are being developed. In spite of this, many promoting agencies have faced the impossibility of evaluating a system design in advance, increasing the uncertainty on its performance and the risks of failure. This paper describes the development of an agent-based simulation model to emulate a bike-sharing system. The goal is to obtain a tool to evaluate and compare different alternatives for the system design before their implementation. This tool will support the decision-making process in all the stages of implementation, from the strategical planning to the daily operation. The main behavioral patterns and schemes for all agents involved are designed and implemented into a Matlab programming code. The model is validated against real data compiled from the Barcelona’s Bicing system showing good accuracy.Postprint (published version

Fleet management in free-floating bike sharing systems using predictive modelling and explorative tools

For redistribution and operating bikes in a free-floating systems, two measures are of highest priority. First, the information about the expected number of rentals on a day is an important measure for service providers for management and service of their fleet. The estimation of the expected number of bookings is carried out with a simple model and a more complex model based on meterological information, as the number of loans depends strongly on the current and forecasted weather. Secondly, the knowledge of a service level violation in future on a fine spatial resolution is important for redistribution of bikes. With this information, the service provider can set reward zones where service level violations will occur in the near future. To forecast a service level violation on a fine geographical resolution the current distribution of bikes as well as the time and space information of past rentals has to be taken into account. A Markov Chain Model is formulated to integrate this information. We develop a management tool that describes in an explorative way important information about past, present and predicted future counts on rentals in time and space. It integrates all estimation procedures. The management tool is running in the browser and continuously updates the information and predictions since the bike distribution over the observed area is in continous flow as well as new data are generated continuously

Dynamic mode decomposition in vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces for extracting dynamical structure among observables

Understanding nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDSs) is challenging in a variety of engineering and scientific fields. Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), which is a numerical algorithm for the spectral analysis of Koopman operators, has been attracting attention as a way of obtaining global modal descriptions of NLDSs without requiring explicit prior knowledge. However, since existing DMD algorithms are in principle formulated based on the concatenation of scalar observables, it is not directly applicable to data with dependent structures among observables, which take, for example, the form of a sequence of graphs. In this paper, we formulate Koopman spectral analysis for NLDSs with structures among observables and propose an estimation algorithm for this problem. This method can extract and visualize the underlying low-dimensional global dynamics of NLDSs with structures among observables from data, which can be useful in understanding the underlying dynamics of such NLDSs. To this end, we first formulate the problem of estimating spectra of the Koopman operator defined in vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, and then develop an estimation procedure for this problem by reformulating tensor-based DMD. As a special case of our method, we propose the method named as Graph DMD, which is a numerical algorithm for Koopman spectral analysis of graph dynamical systems, using a sequence of adjacency matrices. We investigate the empirical performance of our method by using synthetic and real-world data.Comment: 34 pages with 4 figures, Published in Neural Networks, 201

Improved Bounds on Information Dissemination by Manhattan Random Waypoint Model

With the popularity of portable wireless devices it is important to model and predict how information or contagions spread by natural human mobility -- for understanding the spreading of deadly infectious diseases and for improving delay tolerant communication schemes. Formally, we model this problem by considering $M$ moving agents, where each agent initially carries a \emph{distinct} bit of information. When two agents are at the same location or in close proximity to one another, they share all their information with each other. We would like to know the time it takes until all bits of information reach all agents, called the \textit{flood time}, and how it depends on the way agents move, the size and shape of the network and the number of agents moving in the network. We provide rigorous analysis for the \MRWP model (which takes paths with minimum number of turns), a convenient model used previously to analyze mobile agents, and find that with high probability the flood time is bounded by $O\big(N\log M\lceil(N/M) \log(NM)\rceil\big)$, where $M$ agents move on an $N\times N$ grid. In addition to extensive simulations, we use a data set of taxi trajectories to show that our method can successfully predict flood times in both experimental settings and the real world.Comment: 10 pages, ACM SIGSPATIAL 2018, Seattle, U