922 research outputs found
Development of Neurofuzzy Architectures for Electricity Price Forecasting
In 20th century, many countries have liberalized their electricity market. This power markets liberalization has directed generation companies as well as wholesale buyers to undertake a greater intense risk exposure compared to the old centralized framework. In this framework, electricity price prediction has become crucial for any market player in their decisionâmaking process as well as strategic planning. In this study, a prototype asymmetricâbased neuroâfuzzy network (AGFINN) architecture has been implemented for shortâterm electricity prices forecasting for ISO New England market. AGFINN framework has been designed through two different defuzzification schemes. Fuzzy clustering has been explored as an initial step for defining the fuzzy rules while an asymmetric Gaussian membership function has been utilized in the fuzzification part of the model. Results related to the minimum and maximum electricity prices for ISO New England, emphasize the superiority of the proposed model over wellâestablished learningâbased models
Neurofuzzy control to address stochastic variation in actuated-coordinated systems at closely-spaced intersections
This dissertation documents a method of addressing stochastic variation at closely-spaced signalized intersections using neurofuzzy control. Developed on the conventional actuated-coordinated control system, the neurofuzzy traffic signal control keeps the advantage of the conventional control system. Beyond this, the neurofuzzy signal control coordinates the coordinated phase with one of the non-coordinated phases with no reduction of the green band assigned to the coordination along the arterial, reduces variations of traffic signal times in the cycle caused by early return to green , hence, makes more sufficient utilization of green time at closely-spaced intersections. The neurofuzzy signal control system manages a non-coordinated movement in order to manage queue spillbacks and variations of signal timings.Specifically, the neurofuzzy controller establishes a secondary coordination between the upstream coordinated phase (through phase) and the downstream non-coordinated phase (left turn phase) based on real-time traffic demand. Under the fuzzy logic signal control, the traffic from the upstream intersection can arrive and join the queue at the downstream left turn lane and be served, and hence, less possibly be blocked on the downstream left turn lane. This secondary coordination favors left turn progression and, hence, reduces the queue spillbacks. The fuzzy logic method overcomes the natural disadvantage of currently widely used actuated-coordinated traffic signal control in that the fuzzy logic method could coordinate a coordinated movement with a non-coordinated movement. The experiment was conducted and evaluated using a simulation model created using the microscopic simulation program - VISSIM.The neurofuzzy control algorithm was coded with MATLAB which interacts with the traffic simulation model via VISSIM\u27s COM interface. The membership functions in the neurofuzzy signal control system were calibrated using reinforcement learning to further the performance. Comparisons were made between the trained neurofuzzy control, the untrained neurofuzzy control, and the conventional actuated-coordinated control under five different traffic volumes. The simulation results indicated that the trained neurofuzzy signal control outperformed the other two for each traffic case. Comparing to the conventional actuated-coordinated control, the trained neurofuzzy signal control reduced the average delay by 7% and the average number of stops by 6% under the original traffic volume; as traffic volume increasing to 120%, the reductions doubled
Neuro-Fuzzy Based Intelligent Approaches to Nonlinear System Identification and Forecasting
Nearly three decades back nonlinear system identification consisted of several ad-hoc approaches, which were restricted to a very limited class of systems. However, with the advent of the various soft computing methodologies like neural networks and the fuzzy logic combined with optimization techniques, a wider class of systems can be handled at present. Complex systems may be of diverse characteristics and nature. These systems may be linear or nonlinear, continuous or discrete, time varying or time invariant, static or dynamic, short term or long term, central or distributed, predictable or unpredictable, ill or well defined. Neurofuzzy hybrid modelling approaches have been developed as an ideal technique for utilising linguistic values and numerical data. This Thesis is focused on the development of advanced neurofuzzy modelling architectures and their application to real case studies. Three potential requirements have been identified as desirable characteristics for such design: A model needs to have minimum number of rules; a model needs to be generic acting either as Multi-Input-Single-Output (MISO) or Multi-Input-Multi-Output (MIMO) identification model; a model needs to have a versatile nonlinear membership function.
Initially, a MIMO Adaptive Fuzzy Logic System (AFLS) model which incorporates a prototype defuzzification scheme, while utilising an efficient, compared to the TakagiâSugenoâKang (TSK) based systems, fuzzification layer has been developed for the detection of meat spoilage using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The identification strategy involved not only the classification of beef fillet samples in their respective quality class (i.e. fresh, semi-fresh and spoiled), but also the simultaneous prediction of their associated microbiological population directly from FTIR spectra. In the case of AFLS, the number of memberships for each input variable was directly associated to the number of rules, hence, the âcurse of dimensionalityâ problem was significantly reduced. Results confirmed the advantage of the proposed scheme against Adaptive Neurofuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Partial Least Squares (PLS) techniques used in the same case study.
In the case of MISO systems, the TSK based structure, has been utilized in many neurofuzzy systems, like ANFIS. At the next stage of research, an Adaptive Fuzzy Inference Neural
Network (AFINN) has been developed for the monitoring the spoilage of minced beef utilising multispectral imaging information. This model, which follows the TSK structure,
incorporates a clustering pre-processing stage for the definition of fuzzy rules, while its final fuzzy rule base is determined by competitive learning. In this specific case study, AFINN model was also able to predict for the first time in the literature, the beefâs temperature directly from imaging information. Results again proved the superiority of the adopted model. By extending the line of research and adopting specific design concepts from the previous case studies, the Asymmetric Gaussian Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (AGFINN) architecture has been developed. This architecture has been designed based on the above design principles. A clustering preprocessing scheme has been applied to minimise the number of fuzzy rules. AGFINN incorporates features from the AFLS concept, by having the
same number of rules as well as fuzzy memberships. In spite of the extensive use of the standard symmetric Gaussian membership functions, AGFINN utilizes an asymmetric
function acting as input linguistic node. Since the asymmetric Gaussian membership functionâs variability and flexibility are higher than the traditional one, it can partition the input space more effectively. AGFINN can be built either as an MISO or as an MIMO system. In the MISO case, a TSK defuzzification scheme has been implemented, while two different learning algorithms have been implemented. AGFINN has been tested on real datasets related to electricity price forecasting for the ISO New England Power Distribution System. Its performance was compared against a number of alternative models, including ANFIS, AFLS, MLP and Wavelet Neural Network (WNN), and proved to be superior. The concept of asymmetric functions proved to be a valid hypothesis and certainly it can find application to other architectures, such as in Fuzzy Wavelet Neural Network models, by designing a suitable flexible wavelet membership function. AGFINNâs MIMO characteristics also make the proposed architecture suitable for a larger range of applications/problems
Application of Computational Intelligence Techniques to Process Industry Problems
In the last two decades there has been a large progress in the computational
intelligence research field. The fruits of the effort spent on the research in the discussed
field are powerful techniques for pattern recognition, data mining, data modelling, etc.
These techniques achieve high performance on traditional data sets like the UCI
machine learning database. Unfortunately, this kind of data sources usually represent
clean data without any problems like data outliers, missing values, feature co-linearity,
etc. common to real-life industrial data. The presence of faulty data samples can have
very harmful effects on the models, for example if presented during the training of the
models, it can either cause sub-optimal performance of the trained model or in the worst
case destroy the so far learnt knowledge of the model. For these reasons the application
of present modelling techniques to industrial problems has developed into a research
field on its own. Based on the discussion of the properties and issues of the data and the
state-of-the-art modelling techniques in the process industry, in this paper a novel
unified approach to the development of predictive models in the process industry is
presented
Electricity Price Forecasting using Asymmetric Fuzzy Neural Network Systems
Electricity price forecasting is considered as an important tool for energy-related utilities and power generation industries. The deregulation of power market, as well as the competitive financial environment, which have introduced new market players in this field, makes the electricity price forecasting problem a demanding mission. The main focus of this paper is to investigate the performance of asymmetric neuro-fuzzy network models for day-ahead electricity price forecasting. The proposed model has been developed from existing TakagiâSugenoâKang fuzzy systems by substituting the IF part of fuzzy rules with an asymmetric Gaussian function. In addition, a clustering method is utilised as a pre-processing scheme to identify the initial set and adequate number of clusters and eventually the number of rules in the proposed model. The results corresponding to the minimum and maximum electricity price have indicated that the proposed forecasting scheme could be considered as an improved tool for the forecasting accuracy
Predicting the Abrasion Resistance of Tool Steels by Means of Neurofuzzy Model
This work considers use neurofuzzy set theory for estimate abrasion wear resistance of steels based on chemical composition, heat treatment (austenitising temperature, quenchant and tempering temperature), hardness after hardening and different tempering temperature and volume loss of materials according to ASTM G 65-94. Testing of volume loss for the following group of materials as fuzzy data set was taken: carbon tool steels, cold work tool steels, hot work tools steels, high-speed steels. Modelled adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is compared to statistical model of multivariable non-linear regression (MNLR). From the results it could be concluded that it is possible well estimate abrasion wear resistance for steel whose volume loss is unknown and thus eliminate unnecessary testing
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