Microeconomic Motives of Land Use Change in Coastal Zone Area: Agent Based Modelling Approach

Economic growth causes growing urbanization, extension of tourist sector, infrastructure and change of natural landscape. These processes of land use change attract even more attention if they take place in coastal zone area. In that case not only the efficient allocation and preservation of natural area, but also reduction of potential damage from flooding is important. Driven forces of land use at macro and micro levels should be taken into account. This paper presents an agent based model (ABM), which is designed to simulate land use change in coastal zone area based of human behaviour. The aim is to understand motives, types of connections and interactions between different actors and natural environment in order to get a feeling how different policy options and natural conditions might affect land use configuration. Microeconomic motives of land use decisions are in the focus of the research. Individual land use decisions are guided by economic and geomorphologic conditions, spatial planning and coastal protection policy. Each location choice is done according to a set of defined rules and land attributes. Space is represented as a grid of cells. Self-interested economic agents interact with each other trying to benefit from a certain type of land-use. We introduce the perception of risk of flooding in the model of land use as an innovative aspect of ABM simulations for water management problems. Based on decisions of spatially distributed individual economic agents operating in a policy framework, the model produces aggregated land-use patterns as an outcome. Understanding the factors that affect land use decisions will help policy makers design incentives to achieve policy objectives in coastal zone area. The proposed ABM will be applied to a study area in the province of North Holland in the Netherlands

San Francisco Bay: Preparing for the next level

This report provides new insights on the impacts climate change poses on San Francisco Bay, the opportunities this challenge brings and some potential guidelines on how to move forward, as the Bay Area continues to position itself in leading the way nationally and internationally on climate change adaptation. This report is also a landmark in the cooperation between the Netherlands and California on climate change adaptation. A team of professionals from both sides of the ocean has worked on this projec

The adaptation continuum: groundwork for the future

The focus of the program was to understand the challenges posed by climate change and climate variability on vulnerable groups and the policies needed to support climate adaptation in developing countries. The aim of the book is to share this experience in the hope that it will be helpful to those involved in shaping and implementing climate change policy

Developing a conceptual model of marine farming in New Zealand

Survey and Geographic Information System (GIS) data analysis describes the relative influence of biophysical and human variables on site choices made by marine farmers in New Zealand. Community conflicts have grown in importance in determining farm location and different government planning strategies leave distinct signature patterns. Recent legislation empowers local governments to choose among three strategies for future regional aquaculture development. This paper suggests each strategy could result in different spatial outcomes. Simulation modelling of the type described here can provide a better understanding of farmer responses to management approaches and the range of futures that could result from planning choices made today

Adaptation to Sea-level Rise in the People’s Republic of China – Assessing the Institutional Dimension of Alternative Organisational Frameworks

Global sea-levels are rising due to global warming. Major impacts on the world’s coasts are sand beach erosion, salination of ground water, and inundation. Adaptation is the only option to address these future threats as the mitigation of CO2 emissions is not capable of preventing sea-level rise. There are several organisational frameworks existing that can incorporate adaptation measures. Integrated Coastal Zone Management is proposed most often. Alternative frameworks are disaster management and sectoral frameworks involved in prevention activities, such as the water management that often holds responsibility for dike building. However, the integration of adaptation into an organisation framework is further dependent on institutional capacity within a political system. In order to illustrate what approach is feasible for a hierarchical political system the People’s Republic of China is taken as an example. An analysis of various frameworks and institutional responsibilities shows that the institutional dimension of organisation is decisive when seeking for an adequate framework to include adaptation to sea-level rise in. This paper is based on empirical results from a series of interviews and the analysis of official publications on frameworks and institutional responsibilities. It concludes with a recommendation on a climate change based framework.adaptation, sea-level rise, climate change, institutions, frameworks

An acoustic view of ocean mixing

Knowledge of the parameter K (turbulent diffusivity/"mixing intensity") is a key to understand transport processes of matter and energy in the ocean. Especially the almost vertical component of K across the ocean stratification (diapycnal diffusivity) is vital for research on biogeochemical cycles or greenhouse gas budgets. Recent boost in precision of water velocity data that can be obtained from vessel-mounted acoustic instruments (vmADCP) allows identifying ocean regions of elevated diapycnal diffusivity during research cruises - in high horizontal resolution and without extra ship time needed. This contribution relates acoustic data from two cruises in the Tropical North East Atlantic Oxygen Minimum Zone to simultaneous field observations of diapycnal diffusivity: pointwise measurements by a microstructure profiler as well as one integrative value from a large scale Tracer Release Experiment