An Integrated Multi-Time-Scale Modeling for Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Deep Learning

For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to maintain reliable operation of the electric grid rises due to the variability of solar energy. The higher the uncertainty in the generation, the greater the operating-reserve requirements, which translates to an increased cost of operation. In this research work, we propose a unified architecture for multi-time-scale predictions for intra-day solar irradiance forecasting using recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs). This paper also lays out a framework for extending this modeling approach to intra-hour forecasting horizons thus, making it a multi-time-horizon forecasting approach, capable of predicting intra-hour as well as intra-day solar irradiance. We develop an end-to-end pipeline to effectuate the proposed architecture. The performance of the prediction model is tested and validated by the methodical implementation. The robustness of the approach is demonstrated with case studies conducted for geographically scattered sites across the United States. The predictions demonstrate that our proposed unified architecture-based approach is effective for multi-time-scale solar forecasts and achieves a lower root-mean-square prediction error when benchmarked against the best-performing methods documented in the literature that use separate models for each time-scale during the day. Our proposed method results in a 71.5% reduction in the mean RMSE averaged across all the test sites compared to the ML-based best-performing method reported in the literature. Additionally, the proposed method enables multi-time-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs, which have a significant potential for practical industry applications in the evolving grid.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, under review for journal submissio

The development of local solar irradiance for outdoor computer graphics rendering

Atmospheric effects are approximated by solving the light transfer equation, LTE, of a given viewing path. The resulting accumulated spectral energy (its visible band) arriving at the observer’s eyes, defines the colour of the object currently on the line of sight. Due to the convenience of using a single rendering equation to solve the LTE for daylight sky and distant objects (aerial perspective), recent methods had opt for a similar kind of approach. Alas, the burden that the real-time calculation brings to the foil had forced these methods to make simplifications that were not in line with the actual world observation. Consequently, the results of these methods are laden with visual-errors. The two most common simplifications made were: i) assuming the atmosphere as a full-scattering medium only and ii) assuming a single density atmosphere profile. This research explored the possibility of replacing the real-time calculation involved in solving the LTE with an analytical-based approach. Hence, the two simplifications made by the previous real-time methods can be avoided. The model was implemented on top of a flight simulator prototype system since the requirements of such system match the objectives of this study. Results were verified against the actual images of the daylight skies. Comparison was also made with the previous methods’ results to showcase the proposed model strengths and advantages over its peers

Full-depth Coadds of the WISE and First-year NEOWISE-Reactivation Images

The Near Earth Object Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (NEOWISE) Reactivation mission released data from its first full year of observations in 2015. This data set includes ~2.5 million exposures in each of W1 and W2, effectively doubling the amount of WISE imaging available at 3.4 and 4.6 microns relative to the AllWISE release. We have created the first ever full-sky set of coadds combining all publicly available W1 and W2 exposures from both the AllWISE and NEOWISE-Reactivation (NEOWISER) mission phases. We employ an adaptation of the unWISE image coaddition framework (Lang 2014), which preserves the native WISE angular resolution and is optimized for forced photometry. By incorporating two additional scans of the entire sky, we not only improve the W1/W2 depths, but also largely eliminate time-dependent artifacts such as off-axis scattered moonlight. We anticipate that our new coadds will have a broad range of applications, including target selection for upcoming spectroscopic cosmology surveys, identification of distant/massive galaxy clusters, and discovery of high-redshift quasars. In particular, our full-depth AllWISE+NEOWISER coadds will be an important input for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) selection of luminous red galaxy and quasar targets. Our full-depth W1/W2 coadds are already in use within the DECam Legacy Survey (DECaLS) and Mayall z-band Legacy Survey (MzLS) reduction pipelines. Much more work still remains in order to fully leverage NEOWISER imaging for astrophysical applications beyond the solar system.Comment: coadds available at http://unwise.me, zoomable full-sky rendering at http://legacysurvey.org/viewe

Optical Synoptic Telescopes: New Science Frontiers

Over the past decade, sky surveys such as the Sloan Digital Sky Survey have proven the power of large data sets for answering fundamental astrophysical questions. This observational progress, based on a synergy of advances in telescope construction, detectors, and information technology, has had a dramatic impact on nearly all fields of astronomy, and areas of fundamental physics. The next-generation instruments, and the surveys that will be made with them, will maintain this revolutionary progress. The hardware and computational technical challenges and the exciting science opportunities are attracting scientists and engineers from astronomy, optics, low-light-level detectors, high-energy physics, statistics, and computer science. The history of astronomy has taught us repeatedly that there are surprises whenever we view the sky in a new way. This will be particularly true of discoveries emerging from a new generation of sky surveys. Imaging data from large ground-based active optics telescopes with sufficient etendue can address many scientific missions simultaneously. These new investigations will rely on the statistical precision obtainable with billions of objects. For the first time, the full sky will be surveyed deep and fast, opening a new window on a universe of faint moving and distant exploding objects as well as unraveling the mystery of dark energy.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figure