Fourier spectra of measures associated with algorithmically random Brownian motion

In this paper we study the behaviour at infinity of the Fourier transform of Radon measures supported by the images of fractal sets under an algorithmically random Brownian motion. We show that, under some computability conditions on these sets, the Fourier transform of the associated measures have, relative to the Hausdorff dimensions of these sets, optimal asymptotic decay at infinity. The argument relies heavily on a direct characterisation, due to Asarin and Pokrovskii, of algorithmically random Brownian motion in terms of the prefix free Kolmogorov complexity of finite binary sequences. The study also necessitates a closer look at the potential theory over fractals from a computable point of view.Comment: 24 page

The rapid points of a complex oscillation

By considering a counting-type argument on Brownian sample paths, we prove a result similar to that of Orey and Taylor on the exact Hausdorff dimension of the rapid points of Brownian motion. Because of the nature of the proof we can then apply the concepts to so-called complex oscillations (or 'algorithmically random Brownian motion'), showing that their rapid points have the same dimension.Comment: 11 page

Distribution of the time at which the deviation of a Brownian motion is maximum before its first-passage time

We calculate analytically the probability density $P(t_m)$ of the time $t_m$ at which a continuous-time Brownian motion (with and without drift) attains its maximum before passing through the origin for the first time. We also compute the joint probability density $P(M,t_m)$ of the maximum $M$ and $t_m$. In the driftless case, we find that $P(t_m)$ has power-law tails: $P(t_m)\sim t_m^{-3/2}$ for large $t_m$ and $P(t_m)\sim t_m^{-1/2}$ for small $t_m$. In presence of a drift towards the origin, $P(t_m)$ decays exponentially for large $t_m$. The results from numerical simulations are in excellent agreement with our analytical predictions.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures. Published in Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment (J. Stat. Mech. (2007) P10008, doi:10.1088/1742-5468/2007/10/P10008

Stochastic Analysis of Gaussian Processes via Fredholm Representation

We show that every separable Gaussian process with integrable variance function admits a Fredholm representation with respect to a Brownian motion. We extend the Fredholm representation to a transfer principle and develop stochastic analysis by using it. We show the convenience of the Fredholm representation by giving applications to equivalence in law, bridges, series expansions, stochastic differential equations and maximum likelihood estimations

An approximation scheme for quasi-stationary distributions of killed diffusions

In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of the normalized weighted empirical occupation measures of a diffusion process on a compact manifold which is killed at a smooth rate and then regenerated at a random location, distributed according to the weighted empirical occupation measure. We show that the weighted occupation measures almost surely comprise an asymptotic pseudo-trajectory for a certain deterministic measure-valued semiflow, after suitably rescaling the time, and that with probability one they converge to the quasi-stationary distribution of the killed diffusion. These results provide theoretical justification for a scalable quasi-stationary Monte Carlo method for sampling from Bayesian posterior distributions.Comment: v2: revised version, 29 pages, 1 figur

Algorithmic Complexity of Financial Motions

We survey the main applications of algorithmic (Kolmogorov) complexity to the problem of price dynamics in financial markets. We stress the differences between these works and put forward a general algorithmic framework in order to highlight its potential for financial data analysis. This framework is “general" in the sense that it is not constructed on the common assumption that price variations are predominantly stochastic in nature.algorithmic information theory; Kolmogorov complexity; financial returns; market efficiency; compression algorithms; information theory; randomness; price movements; algorithmic probability

Making dynamic modelling effective in economics

Mathematics has been extremely effective in physics, but not in economics beyond finance. To establish economics as science we should follow the Galilean method and try to deduce mathematical models of markets from empirical data, as has been done for financial markets. Financial markets are nonstationary. This means that 'value' is subjective. Nonstationarity also means that the form of the noise in a market cannot be postulated a priroi, but must be deduced from the empirical data. I discuss the essence of complexity in a market as unexpected events, and end with a biological speculation about market growth.Economics; fniancial markets; stochastic process; Markov process; complex systems