9,039 research outputs found
Algorithmic aspects of mean–variance optimization in Markov decision processes
We consider finite horizon Markov decision processes under performance measures that involve both the mean and the variance of the cumulative reward. We show that either randomized or history-based policies can improve performance. We prove that the complexity of computing a policy that maximizes the mean reward under a variance constraint is NP-hard for some cases, and strongly NP-hard for others. We finally offer pseudopolynomial exact and approximation algorithms.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (CMMI-0856063
Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning: A Constrained Optimization Viewpoint
The classic objective in a reinforcement learning (RL) problem is to find a
policy that minimizes, in expectation, a long-run objective such as the
infinite-horizon discounted or long-run average cost. In many practical
applications, optimizing the expected value alone is not sufficient, and it may
be necessary to include a risk measure in the optimization process, either as
the objective or as a constraint. Various risk measures have been proposed in
the literature, e.g., mean-variance tradeoff, exponential utility, the
percentile performance, value at risk, conditional value at risk, prospect
theory and its later enhancement, cumulative prospect theory. In this article,
we focus on the combination of risk criteria and reinforcement learning in a
constrained optimization framework, i.e., a setting where the goal to find a
policy that optimizes the usual objective of infinite-horizon
discounted/average cost, while ensuring that an explicit risk constraint is
satisfied. We introduce the risk-constrained RL framework, cover popular risk
measures based on variance, conditional value-at-risk and cumulative prospect
theory, and present a template for a risk-sensitive RL algorithm. We survey
some of our recent work on this topic, covering problems encompassing
discounted cost, average cost, and stochastic shortest path settings, together
with the aforementioned risk measures in a constrained framework. This
non-exhaustive survey is aimed at giving a flavor of the challenges involved in
solving a risk-sensitive RL problem, and outlining some potential future
research directions
Risk Aversion in Finite Markov Decision Processes Using Total Cost Criteria and Average Value at Risk
In this paper we present an algorithm to compute risk averse policies in
Markov Decision Processes (MDP) when the total cost criterion is used together
with the average value at risk (AVaR) metric. Risk averse policies are needed
when large deviations from the expected behavior may have detrimental effects,
and conventional MDP algorithms usually ignore this aspect. We provide
conditions for the structure of the underlying MDP ensuring that approximations
for the exact problem can be derived and solved efficiently. Our findings are
novel inasmuch as average value at risk has not previously been considered in
association with the total cost criterion. Our method is demonstrated in a
rapid deployment scenario, whereby a robot is tasked with the objective of
reaching a target location within a temporal deadline where increased speed is
associated with increased probability of failure. We demonstrate that the
proposed algorithm not only produces a risk averse policy reducing the
probability of exceeding the expected temporal deadline, but also provides the
statistical distribution of costs, thus offering a valuable analysis tool
Unifying Two Views on Multiple Mean-Payoff Objectives in Markov Decision Processes
We consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) with multiple limit-average (or
mean-payoff) objectives. There exist two different views: (i) the expectation
semantics, where the goal is to optimize the expected mean-payoff objective,
and (ii) the satisfaction semantics, where the goal is to maximize the
probability of runs such that the mean-payoff value stays above a given vector.
We consider optimization with respect to both objectives at once, thus unifying
the existing semantics. Precisely, the goal is to optimize the expectation
while ensuring the satisfaction constraint. Our problem captures the notion of
optimization with respect to strategies that are risk-averse (i.e., ensure
certain probabilistic guarantee). Our main results are as follows: First, we
present algorithms for the decision problems which are always polynomial in the
size of the MDP. We also show that an approximation of the Pareto-curve can be
computed in time polynomial in the size of the MDP, and the approximation
factor, but exponential in the number of dimensions. Second, we present a
complete characterization of the strategy complexity (in terms of memory bounds
and randomization) required to solve our problem.Comment: Extended journal version of the LICS'15 pape
HMM based scenario generation for an investment optimisation problem
This is the post-print version of the article. The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2012 Springer-Verlag.The Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a standard method for modelling financial time series. An important criticism of this method is that the parameters of the GBM are assumed to be constants; due to this fact, important features of the time series, like extreme behaviour or volatility clustering cannot be captured. We propose an approach by which the parameters of the GBM are able to switch between regimes, more precisely they are governed by a hidden Markov chain. Thus, we model the financial time series via a hidden Markov model (HMM) with a GBM in each state. Using this approach, we generate scenarios for a financial portfolio optimisation problem in which the portfolio CVaR is minimised. Numerical results are presented.This study was funded by NET ACE at OptiRisk Systems
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