Algorithmic Complexity of Financial Motions

We survey the main applications of algorithmic (Kolmogorov) complexity to the problem of price dynamics in financial markets. We stress the differences between these works and put forward a general algorithmic framework in order to highlight its potential for financial data analysis. This framework is “general" in the sense that it is not constructed on the common assumption that price variations are predominantly stochastic in nature.algorithmic information theory; Kolmogorov complexity; financial returns; market efficiency; compression algorithms; information theory; randomness; price movements; algorithmic probability

Numerical Evaluation of Algorithmic Complexity for Short Strings: A Glance into the Innermost Structure of Randomness

We describe an alternative method (to compression) that combines several theoretical and experimental results to numerically approximate the algorithmic (Kolmogorov-Chaitin) complexity of all $\sum_{n=1}^82^n$ bit strings up to 8 bits long, and for some between 9 and 16 bits long. This is done by an exhaustive execution of all deterministic 2-symbol Turing machines with up to 4 states for which the halting times are known thanks to the Busy Beaver problem, that is 11019960576 machines. An output frequency distribution is then computed, from which the algorithmic probability is calculated and the algorithmic complexity evaluated by way of the (Levin-Zvonkin-Chaitin) coding theorem.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures. Version as accepted by the journal Applied Mathematics and Computatio

Coding-theorem Like Behaviour and Emergence of the Universal Distribution from Resource-bounded Algorithmic Probability

Previously referred to as `miraculous' in the scientific literature because of its powerful properties and its wide application as optimal solution to the problem of induction/inference, (approximations to) Algorithmic Probability (AP) and the associated Universal Distribution are (or should be) of the greatest importance in science. Here we investigate the emergence, the rates of emergence and convergence, and the Coding-theorem like behaviour of AP in Turing-subuniversal models of computation. We investigate empirical distributions of computing models in the Chomsky hierarchy. We introduce measures of algorithmic probability and algorithmic complexity based upon resource-bounded computation, in contrast to previously thoroughly investigated distributions produced from the output distribution of Turing machines. This approach allows for numerical approximations to algorithmic (Kolmogorov-Chaitin) complexity-based estimations at each of the levels of a computational hierarchy. We demonstrate that all these estimations are correlated in rank and that they converge both in rank and values as a function of computational power, despite fundamental differences between computational models. In the context of natural processes that operate below the Turing universal level because of finite resources and physical degradation, the investigation of natural biases stemming from algorithmic rules may shed light on the distribution of outcomes. We show that up to 60\% of the simplicity/complexity bias in distributions produced even by the weakest of the computational models can be accounted for by Algorithmic Probability in its approximation to the Universal Distribution.Comment: 27 pages main text, 39 pages including supplement. Online complexity calculator: http://complexitycalculator.com