Alarm-Based Prescriptive Process Monitoring

Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a process in order to predict the future state of ongoing cases thereof. Existing techniques in this field are able to predict, at each step of a case, the likelihood that the case will end up in an undesired outcome. These techniques, however, do not take into account what process workers may do with the generated predictions in order to decrease the likelihood of undesired outcomes. This paper proposes a framework for prescriptive process monitoring, which extends predictive process monitoring approaches with the concepts of alarms, interventions, compensations, and mitigation effects. The framework incorporates a parameterized cost model to assess the cost-benefit tradeoffs of applying prescriptive process monitoring in a given setting. The paper also outlines an approach to optimize the generation of alarms given a dataset and a set of cost model parameters. The proposed approach is empirically evaluated using a range of real-life event logs

Fire now, fire later: alarm-based systems for prescriptive process monitoring

Predictive process monitoring is a family of techniques to analyze events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict the future state or the final outcome of running process instances. Existing techniques in this field are able to predict, at each step of a process instance, the likelihood that it will lead to an undesired outcome. These techniques, however, focus on generating predictions and do not prescribe when and how process workers should intervene to decrease the cost of undesired outcomes. This paper proposes a framework for prescriptive process monitoring, which extends predictive monitoring with the ability to generate alarms that trigger interventions to prevent an undesired outcome or mitigate its effect. The framework incorporates a parameterized cost model to assess the cost–benefit trade-off of generating alarms. We show how to optimize the generation of alarms given an event log of past process executions and a set of cost model parameters. The proposed approaches are empirically evaluated using a range of real-life event logs. The experimental results show that the net cost of undesired outcomes can be minimized by changing the threshold for generating alarms, as the process instance progresses. Moreover, introducing delays for triggering alarms, instead of triggering them as soon as the probability of an undesired outcome exceeds a threshold, leads to lower net costs.Estonian Research Competency Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005189H2020 European Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010663Peer Reviewe

A model-driven approach to broaden the detection of software performance antipatterns at runtime

Performance antipatterns document bad design patterns that have negative influence on system performance. In our previous work we formalized such antipatterns as logical predicates that predicate on four views: (i) the static view that captures the software elements (e.g. classes, components) and the static relationships among them; (ii) the dynamic view that represents the interaction (e.g. messages) that occurs between the software entities elements to provide the system functionalities; (iii) the deployment view that describes the hardware elements (e.g. processing nodes) and the mapping of the software entities onto the hardware platform; (iv) the performance view that collects specific performance indices. In this paper we present a lightweight infrastructure that is able to detect performance antipatterns at runtime through monitoring. The proposed approach precalculates such predicates and identifies antipatterns whose static, dynamic and deployment sub-predicates are validated by the current system configuration and brings at runtime the verification of performance sub-predicates. The proposed infrastructure leverages model-driven techniques to generate probes for monitoring the performance sub-predicates and detecting antipatterns at runtime.Comment: In Proceedings FESCA 2014, arXiv:1404.043

Äriprotsessi tulemuste ennustav ja korralduslik seire

Viimastel aastatel on erinevates valdkondades tegutsevad ettevõtted üles näidanud kasvavat huvi masinõppel põhinevate rakenduste kasutusele võtmiseks. Muuhulgas otsitakse võimalusi oma äriprotsesside efektiivsuse tõstmiseks, kasutades ennustusmudeleid protsesside jooksvaks seireks. Sellised ennustava protsessiseire meetodid võtavad sisendiks sündmuslogi, mis koosneb hulgast lõpetatud äriprotsessi juhtumite sündmusjadadest, ning kasutavad masinõppe algoritme ennustusmudelite treenimiseks. Saadud mudelid teevad ennustusi lõpetamata (antud ajahetkel aktiivsete) protsessijuhtumite jaoks, võttes sisendiks sündmuste jada, mis selle hetkeni on toimunud ning ennustades kas järgmist sündmust antud juhtumis, juhtumi lõppemiseni jäänud aega või instantsi lõpptulemust. Lõpptulemusele orienteeritud ennustava protsessiseire meetodid keskenduvad ennustamisele, kas protsessijuhtum lõppeb soovitud või ebasoovitava lõpptulemusega. Süsteemi kasutaja saab ennustuste alusel otsustada, kas sekkuda antud protsessijuhtumisse või mitte, eesmärgiga ära hoida ebasoovitavat lõpptulemust või leevendada selle negatiivseid tagajärgi. Erinevalt puhtalt ennustavatest süsteemidest annavad korralduslikud protsessiseire meetodid kasutajale ka soovitusi, kas ja kuidas antud juhtumisse sekkuda, eesmärgiga optimeerida mingit kindlat kasulikkusfunktsiooni. Käesolev doktoritöö uurib, kuidas treenida, hinnata ja kasutada ennustusmudeleid äriprotsesside lõpptulemuste ennustava ja korraldusliku seire raames. Doktoritöö pakub välja taksonoomia olemasolevate meetodite klassifitseerimiseks ja võrdleb neid katseliselt. Lisaks pakub töö välja raamistiku tekstiliste andmete kasutamiseks antud ennustusmudelites. Samuti pakume välja ennustuste ajalise stabiilsuse mõiste ning koostame raamistiku korralduslikuks protsessiseireks, mis annab kasutajatele soovitusi, kas protsessi sekkuda või mitte. Katsed näitavad, et väljapakutud lahendused täiendavad olemasolevaid meetodeid ning aitavad kaasa ennustava protsessiseire süsteemide rakendamisele reaalsetes süsteemides.Recent years have witnessed a growing adoption of machine learning techniques for business improvement across various fields. Among other emerging applications, organizations are exploiting opportunities to improve the performance of their business processes by using predictive models for runtime monitoring. Such predictive process monitoring techniques take an event log (a set of completed business process execution traces) as input and use machine learning techniques to train predictive models. At runtime, these techniques predict either the next event, the remaining time, or the final outcome of an ongoing case, given its incomplete execution trace consisting of the events performed up to the present moment in the given case. In particular, a family of techniques called outcome-oriented predictive process monitoring focuses on predicting whether a case will end with a desired or an undesired outcome. The user of the system can use the predictions to decide whether or not to intervene, with the purpose of preventing an undesired outcome or mitigating its negative effects. Prescriptive process monitoring systems go beyond purely predictive ones, by not only generating predictions but also advising the user if and how to intervene in a running case in order to optimize a given utility function. This thesis addresses the question of how to train, evaluate, and use predictive models for predictive and prescriptive monitoring of business process outcomes. The thesis proposes a taxonomy and performs a comparative experimental evaluation of existing techniques in the field. Moreover, we propose a framework for incorporating textual data to predictive monitoring systems. We introduce the notion of temporal stability to evaluate these systems and propose a prescriptive process monitoring framework for advising users if and how to act upon the predictions. The results suggest that the proposed solutions complement the existing techniques and can be useful for practitioners in implementing predictive process monitoring systems in real life

Current Concepts and Trends in Human-Automation Interaction

Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.This publication is with permission of the rights owner freely accessible due to an Alliance licence and a national licence (funded by the DFG, German Research Foundation) respectively.The purpose of this panel was to provide a general overview and discussion of some of the most current and controversial concepts and trends in human-automation interaction. The panel was composed of eight researchers and practitioners. The panelists are well-known experts in the area and offered differing views on a variety of different human-automation topics. The range of concepts and trends discussed in this panel include: general taxonomies regarding stages and levels of automation and function allocation, individualized adaptive automation, automation-induced complacency, economic rationality and the use of automation, the potential utility of false alarms, the influence of different types of false alarms on trust and reliance, and a system-wide theory of trust in multiple automated aids

Fire strategies in buildings: LabFactor fire strategy

Treball desenvolupat en el marc del programa "European Project Semester".Nowadays, fire strategies play a significant role in fire engineering. They are constantly being improved while fire engineers develop new solutions and provide more ideas to protect people´s lives. The project was focused on evaluating a fire strategy for the LabFactor building at the Lodz University of Technology. In the process, the latest approaches to fire strategies were used as well as Fire Dynamics Simulations and practical smoke tests. The project yielded meaningful results concerning smoke control and ventilation systems installed in LabFactor such as the effectiveness of smoke curtains and atrium smoke exhaust fans. The report illustrates the research done for the needs of the project as well as the outcomes and findings arising from the aforementioned tests and simulations. Conclusions and recommendations present the observations after five months of work on the assessment of LabFactor´s fire strategy. Although the current fire strategy gives positive results, taking into consideration the remarks contained in the recommendations would improve the strategy even further, potentially leading to saving more human lives.Outgoin

Human Factors Standards and the Hard Human Factor Problems: Observations on Medical Usability Standards

With increasing variety and sophistication of computer-based medical devices, and more diverse users and use environments, usability is essential, especially to ensure safety. Usability standards and guidelines play an important role. We reviewed several, focusing on the IEC 62366 and 60601 sets. It is plausible that these standards have reduced risks for patients, but we raise concerns regarding: (1) complex design trade-offs that are not addressed, (2) a focus on user interface design (e.g., making alarms audible) to the detriment of other human factors (e.g., ensuring users actually act upon alarms they hear), and (3) some definitions and scope restrictions that may create “blind spots”. We highlight potential related risks, e.g. that clear directives on “easier to understand” risks, though useful, may preclude mitigating other, more “difficult” ones; but ask to what extent these negative effects can be avoided by standard writers, given objective constraints. Our critique is motivated by current research and incident reports, and considers standards from other domains and countries. It is meant to highlight problems, relevant to designers, standards committees, and human factors researchers, and to trigger discussion about the potential and limits of standards

Performance-Based Codes: Economics, Documentation, and Design

The advent of performance-based codes in the United States underscores the need for a thorough, systematic approach to the documentation and accomplishment of a performance-based design. This project has three objectives: economic analysis of performance-based codes from a social view point, documentation of a performance-based design, and an example application of the ICC Performance-Based Code to high-rise office building. Economic issues explored include the externalities, insurance, and liabilities associated with performance-based codes. Documentation of a performance-based design includes delineation of the scope and goals with agreement between the designer, architect, building owner, and authority having jurisdiction, examination of the relevant code statutes, development of appropriate fire scenarios which meet the requirements of the performance matrices, thorough documentation of all design tool and calculation assumptions and limitations, and a clear demonstration of satisfactory accomplishment of stated goals and objectives. Finally, performance-based design alternatives to a prescriptively-designed 40 story office building were developed. There were three major design alternatives. The first design feature was the evacuation of occupants using elevators. The second alternative was the use of the assured fire safety system, which combined emerging technologies in fire detection, alarm, and suppression. The final design alternative was the routing of the domestic water supply through the sprinkler riser in order increase the reliability of the sprinkler system and save design, material, and installation costs associated with the domestic water supply risers. Finally, this project analyzed the specific life-cycle economic impact of the design alternatives when compared to the prescriptive design