Industrial development, agricultural growth, urbanization and environmental Kuznets curve in Pakistan

The debate of environmental issues and their analysis is of vital interest for economic policies. Institutions are engaged in identifying and estimating the extent of environmental impact of determinants controllable via policy measures. Annual data from the on Carbon Dioxide emission, economic growth, consumption of energy, openness for foreign trade, urbanization, industrial growth and agriculture growth on Pakistan is used for 1971 to 2007. Augmented Vector Autoregression technique and cointegration analysis is implemented to test Granger causality. Gross domestic product significantly Granger causes emission of Carbon Dioxide and energy consumption. On the other hand emissions of CO2 affect economic growth, agriculture and industrial growth in the long run. It is also evident that energy consumption unidirectional Granger causes emission of Carbon Dioxide. Industrialization and urbanization bidirectional Granger causes each other. The results indicate the more careful industrial and energy policies to reduce emissions and control global warming.Pakistan, Carbon Dioxide emission, Environment, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Foreign Trade

Circulating miR-181 is a prognostic biomarker for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a relentless neurodegenerative disease of the human motor neuron system, where variability in progression rate limits clinical trial efficacy. Therefore, better prognostication will facilitate therapeutic progress. In this study, we investigated the potential of plasma cell-free microRNAs (miRNAs) as ALS prognostication biomarkers in 252 patients with detailed clinical phenotyping. First, we identified, in a longitudinal cohort, miRNAs whose plasma levels remain stable over the course of disease. Next, we showed that high levels of miR-181, a miRNA enriched in neurons, predicts a greater than two-fold risk of death in independent discovery and replication cohorts (126 and 122 patients, respectively). miR-181 performance is similar to neurofilament light chain (NfL), and when combined together, miR-181 + NfL establish a novel RNA–protein biomarker pair with superior prognostication capacity. Therefore, plasma miR-181 alone and a novel miRNA–protein biomarker approach, based on miR-181 + NfL, boost precision of patient stratification. miR-181-based ALS biomarkers encourage additional validation and might enhance the power of clinical trials

Seasonal time-series modeling and forecasting of monthly mean temperature for decision making in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

A generalized structural time-series modeling framework was used to analyze the monthly records of mean temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using classical stochastic processes. In this article we are using the SARIMA Box–Jenkins model and obtain a medium-term (10 years) forecast of the mean temperature in Erbil. A prediction of the monthly mean temperature during the past 287 months ((Formula presented.)24 years) using the SARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12 model predicts that the average temperature in the governorate of Erbil, Iraq, will be stable for the next 10 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that our model performs equally well when applying it to different periods of time for which data is available. The method used here could easily be applied by the decision makers responsible for providing water and electricity in the Kurdistan Region

The Relationship of Men’s and Women’s Partner Violence to Personality and Psychopathology

The aim of the current project was to test two competing views on the study of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV), namely the feminist and violence perspectives. The feminist perspective views IPV as having an individual etiology and should not be considered within the context of other types of aggression (see for example, Dobash & Dobash, 1979). The violence perspective sees IPV as something to be studied alongside other aggression by examining the characteristics and psychopathology of the perpetrator (see for example, Felson, 2002; 2006; 2010). The first part of the thesis used IPV and same-sex aggression measures (a modified version of the Conflict Tactics Scale; Straus, 1979) alongside a measure of controlling behavior (Controlling Behavior Scale; Graham-Kevan & Archer, 2005) to test a number of hypotheses derived from the feminist theory of IPV – including Johnson’s (1995) typology. Results provided contradictory evidence for this theory including, but not limited to, women’s preponderance to perpetrate IPV and controlling behaviors at a greater frequency than men, the lack of significant differences in classification for Johnson’s typology and the finding that same-sex aggression perpetration was associated with controlling behaviors towards a partner. The second part of the thesis then went onto to explore studying IPV within a violence perspective. This involved examining associations between aggression and other personality and psychopathology variables to determine their predictive power. These chapters were further presented within Finkel’s (2007) I3 framework as either impelling or inhibiting forces. The series of studies involved examining both stable and dynamic risk factors that have been found in the previous literature to be associated with IPV and same-sex aggression namely: (1) attachment styles and psychopathic traits; (2) self-control, empathy, anxiety and perceived physical retaliation and (3) paired variables of cost-benefit assessment and instrumental-expressive beliefs. Results revealed several important findings for the theoretical literature and implications for treatment and interventions. Firstly, IPV and same-sex aggression shared similar significant risk factors; this indicates the similar etiology of aggression in general and provides support for studying IPV within the “violence perspective”. Secondly, men and women shared some similar risk factors. The differences supported the view that women have better inhibiting control than men and that the inhibiting forces within Finkel’s framework may be more useful in predicting women’s aggression with the impelling forces being more useful for men’s aggression. Thirdly, it demonstrated the importance of both impelling and inhibiting forces in predicting aggressive behavior, the latter of which has received relatively less research attention. Finally, and following on from the previous point, the current project has drawn attention to the research potential of Finkel’s framework. The implications here involve the way IPV perpetrators are treated within both the criminal justice system and in terms of intervention programmes. This project has provided contradictory evidence to the feminist theory that underpins the current treatment programs in use. Suggestions for future research and how interventions can be improved are discussed

Quality of Life on the Agricultural Treadmill: Individual and Community Determinants of Farm Family Well-Being

Individual quality of life (QOL) is a critical foundation of stable and cohesive societies. This research examines QOL among Iowa farmers, who as a group have seen their numbers decline precipitously over the past decades as the farm economy has undergone major restructuring processes. Farm families are nested in rural communities, many of which have also experienced persistent population loss and economic decline over the same period. A multilevel modeling approach is employed to examine determinants of subjective QOL over time, using 29 years of longitudinal data. Results point to positive relationships between household income, community vitality, and farm family QOL. Individual stress and economic dependence on farming were negatively associated with QOL. The finding that community vitality is a critical determinant of farm family quality of life supports long-standing appeals to increase investment in community development efforts

UN ENFOQUE COGNITIVO DEL FHA PARA CORREGIR SESGOS EN EL JUICIO DE EXPERTOS: APLICACIÓN A UN CASO

El propósito de este trabajo es presentar un enfoque metodológico integrador que sirva de apoyo a la toma de decisiones. Hasta ahora la literatura científica ha producido principalmente trabajos de dos clases: análisis descriptivo, que se refiere a los procesos reales que caracterizan la valoración y selección de los individuos, y el análisis normativo, que analiza los procesos de selección realizados por individuos racionales idealizados. Entonces, cuando hablamos de un enfoque integrador, pretendemos desarrollar una metodología, que aun partiendo de instrumentos cuantitativos típicos del análisis normativo, tome también en consideración las implicancias cognitivo-comportamentales obtenidas por los especialistas en toma de decisión. Hemos desarrollado un modelo aplicativo basado en el análisis jerárquico fuzzy (FHA), en el que a las capacidades del proceso de jerarquía analítico (AHP) de racionalizar el proceso de decisión sin prescindir de las valoraciones, se añaden elementos de la teoría de conjuntos borrosos que permiten al decisor expresar la ambigüedad de su propia valoración. Este método corrige los juicios tomando en consideración los llamados sesgos cognitivos, es decir, distorsiones subjetivas relacionadas con la percepción de la utilidad y la incertidumbre. Por último, se ha llevado a cabo una experiencia para verificar el valor del modelo propuesto, los límites de su aplicabilidad y los posibles desarrollos futuros. Palabras clave: análisis jerárquico fuzzy, toma de decisión, enfoque cognitivo. Abstract This paper aims to propose a methodological integrated approach to support experts in decision making situation. Until now scientific literature has mainly produced works of two types: descriptive analysis, that talks about the real processes that characterize the evaluation and selection of individuals, and the normative analysis, that analyses the process of selection made by rational individuals. When we talk about an integrated approach, we try to develop a methodology, that even starting off of typical quantitative instruments of the normative analysis, also takes in consideration the cognitive side obtained by the specialists in decision making. We have developed an empirical model based on the fuzzy hierarchical analysis (FHA). In addition the capacities of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to rationalize the process of decision considering the evaluations, elements of the fuzzy set theory are considered in order to allow experts to express the ambiguity of their own evaluations. The proposed methodology corrects the judgments taking in consideration the so called cognitive biases, that is to say, subjective distortions related to the perception of utility and uncertainty. Finally, an experience has been carried out to verify the value of the proposed model, the limits of its applicability and possible future developments. Keywords: Fuzzy hierarchical analysis, Decision making, Cognitive approach

The time-profile of cell growth in fission yeast: model selection criteria favoring bilinear models over exponential ones

BACKGROUND: There is considerable controversy concerning the exact growth profile of size parameters during the cell cycle. Linear, exponential and bilinear models are commonly considered, and the same model may not apply for all species. Selection of the most adequate model to describe a given data-set requires the use of quantitative model selection criteria, such as the partial (sequential) F-test, the Akaike information criterion and the Schwarz Bayesian information criterion, which are suitable for comparing differently parameterized models in terms of the quality and robustness of the fit but have not yet been used in cell growth-profile studies. RESULTS: Length increase data from representative individual fission yeast (Schizosaccharomyces pombe) cells measured on time-lapse films have been reanalyzed using these model selection criteria. To fit the data, an extended version of a recently introduced linearized biexponential (LinBiExp) model was developed, which makes possible a smooth, continuously differentiable transition between two linear segments and, hence, allows fully parametrized bilinear fittings. Despite relatively small differences, essentially all the quantitative selection criteria considered here indicated that the bilinear model was somewhat more adequate than the exponential model for fitting these fission yeast data. CONCLUSION: A general quantitative framework was introduced to judge the adequacy of bilinear versus exponential models in the description of growth time-profiles. For single cell growth, because of the relatively limited data-range, the statistical evidence is not strong enough to favor one model clearly over the other and to settle the bilinear versus exponential dispute. Nevertheless, for the present individual cell growth data for fission yeast, the bilinear model seems more adequate according to all metrics, especially in the case of wee1Δ cells