Data driven consistency (working title)

We are motivated by applications that need rich model classes to represent them. Examples of rich model classes include distributions over large, countably infinite supports, slow mixing Markov processes, etc. But such rich classes may be too complex to admit estimators that converge to the truth with convergence rates that can be uniformly bounded over the entire model class as the sample size increases (uniform consistency). However, these rich classes may still allow for estimators with pointwise guarantees whose performance can be bounded in a model dependent way. The pointwise angle of course has the drawback that the estimator performance is a function of the very unknown model that is being estimated, and is therefore unknown. Therefore, even if the estimator is consistent, how well it is doing may not be clear no matter what the sample size is. Departing from the dichotomy of uniform and pointwise consistency, a new analysis framework is explored by characterizing rich model classes that may only admit pointwise guarantees, yet all the information about the model needed to guage estimator accuracy can be inferred from the sample at hand. To retain focus, we analyze the universal compression problem in this data driven pointwise consistency framework.Comment: Working paper. Please email authors for the current versio

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Credit ; Debts, Public ; Government lending

Consumption and labor supply with partial insurance: an analytical framework

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Quantitative macroeconomics with heterogeneous households

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Artificial intelligence approaches to predicting and detecting cognitive decline in older adults: A conceptual review.

Preserving cognition and mental capacity is critical to aging with autonomy. Early detection of pathological cognitive decline facilitates the greatest impact of restorative or preventative treatments. Artificial Intelligence (AI) in healthcare is the use of computational algorithms that mimic human cognitive functions to analyze complex medical data. AI technologies like machine learning (ML) support the integration of biological, psychological, and social factors when approaching diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of disease. This paper serves to acquaint clinicians and other stakeholders with the use, benefits, and limitations of AI for predicting, diagnosing, and classifying mild and major neurocognitive impairments, by providing a conceptual overview of this topic with emphasis on the features explored and AI techniques employed. We present studies that fell into six categories of features used for these purposes: (1) sociodemographics; (2) clinical and psychometric assessments; (3) neuroimaging and neurophysiology; (4) electronic health records and claims; (5) novel assessments (e.g., sensors for digital data); and (6) genomics/other omics. For each category we provide examples of AI approaches, including supervised and unsupervised ML, deep learning, and natural language processing. AI technology, still nascent in healthcare, has great potential to transform the way we diagnose and treat patients with neurocognitive disorders