Prediction Markets: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Prediction markets (PM) have drawn considerable attention in recent years as a tool for forecasting events. Studies surveying and examining relevant the trends of PM using traditional approaches have been reported in the literature. However, research using meta-analysis to review Prediction markets systems is very limited in Management Information System (MIS). This paper aimed to fill this gap by using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method to study Prediction markets trends over the past decades. Our results are as follows. First, we find that shows that more than 64% of academic studies on Prediction markets are published in top journals such as Journal of the Association for Information Systems, Journal of Consumer Research and Information Systems Research. Second, we showed that Prediction markets applications can be can be divided into two groups: internal use PMS and general public usage. Finally, our significant meta-analysis result show that on average prediction markets is 79% more accurate than alternative forecast methods based

Forecast Performance of Futures Price Models for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat

Replaced with revised version of paper 06/15/07.Marketing,

HVAC-based hierarchical energy management system for microgrids

With the high penetration of renewable energy into the grid, power fluctuations and supply-demand power mismatch are becoming more prominent, which pose a great challenge for the power system to eliminate negative effects through demand side management (DSM). The flexible load, such as heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) system, has a great potential to provide demand response services in the electricity grids. In this thesis, a comprehensive framework based on a forecasting-management optimization approach is proposed to coordinate multiple HVAC systems to deal with uncertainties from renewable energy resources and maximize the energy efficiency. In the forecasting stage, a hybrid model based on Multiple Aggregation Prediction Algorithm with exogenous variables (MAPAx)-Principal Components Analysis (PCA) is proposed to predict changes of local solar radiance, vy using the local observation dataset and real-time meteorological indexes acquired from the weather forecast spot. The forecast result is then compared with the statistical benchmark models and assessed by performance evaluation indexes. In the management stage, a novel distributed algorithm is developed to coordinate power consumption of HVAC systems by varying the compressors’ frequency to maintain the supply-demand balance. It demonstrates that the cost and capacity of energy storage systems can be curtailed, since HVACs can absorb excessive power generation. More importantly, the method addresses a consensus problem under a switching communication topology by using Lyapunov argument, which relaxes the communication requirement. In the optimization stage, a price-comfort optimization model regarding HVAC’s end users is formulated and a proportional-integral-derivative (PID)-based distributed algorithm is thus developed to minimize the customer’s total cost, whilst alleviating the global power imbalance. The end users are motivated to participate in energy trade through DSM scheme. Furthermore, the coordination scheme can be extended to accommodate battery energy storage systems (BESSs) and a hybrid BESS-HVAC system with increasing storage capacity is proved as a promising solution to enhance its selfregulation ability in a microgrid. Extensive case studies have been undertaken with the respective control strategies to investigate effectiveness of the algorithms under various scenarios. The techniques developed in this thesis has helped the partnership company of this project to develop their smart immersion heaters for the customers with minimum energy cost and maximum photovoltaic efficiency

Understanding and Comparing Scalable Gaussian Process Regression for Big Data

As a non-parametric Bayesian model which produces informative predictive distribution, Gaussian process (GP) has been widely used in various fields, like regression, classification and optimization. The cubic complexity of standard GP however leads to poor scalability, which poses challenges in the era of big data. Hence, various scalable GPs have been developed in the literature in order to improve the scalability while retaining desirable prediction accuracy. This paper devotes to investigating the methodological characteristics and performance of representative global and local scalable GPs including sparse approximations and local aggregations from four main perspectives: scalability, capability, controllability and robustness. The numerical experiments on two toy examples and five real-world datasets with up to 250K points offer the following findings. In terms of scalability, most of the scalable GPs own a time complexity that is linear to the training size. In terms of capability, the sparse approximations capture the long-term spatial correlations, the local aggregations capture the local patterns but suffer from over-fitting in some scenarios. In terms of controllability, we could improve the performance of sparse approximations by simply increasing the inducing size. But this is not the case for local aggregations. In terms of robustness, local aggregations are robust to various initializations of hyperparameters due to the local attention mechanism. Finally, we highlight that the proper hybrid of global and local scalable GPs may be a promising way to improve both the model capability and scalability for big data.Comment: 25 pages, 15 figures, preprint submitted to KB