38,737 research outputs found
Predictive intelligence to the edge through approximate collaborative context reasoning
We focus on Internet of Things (IoT) environments where a network of sensing and computing devices are responsible to locally process contextual data, reason and collaboratively infer the appearance of a specific phenomenon (event). Pushing processing and knowledge inference to the edge of the IoT network allows the complexity of the event reasoning process to be distributed into many manageable pieces and to be physically located at the source of the contextual information. This enables a huge amount of rich data streams to be processed in real time that would be prohibitively complex and costly to deliver on a traditional centralized Cloud system. We propose a lightweight, energy-efficient, distributed, adaptive, multiple-context perspective event reasoning model under uncertainty on each IoT device (sensor/actuator). Each device senses and processes context data and infers events based on different local context perspectives: (i) expert knowledge on event representation, (ii) outliers inference, and (iii) deviation from locally predicted context. Such novel approximate reasoning paradigm is achieved through a contextualized, collaborative belief-driven clustering process, where clusters of devices are formed according to their belief on the presence of events. Our distributed and federated intelligence model efficiently identifies any localized abnormality on the contextual data in light of event reasoning through aggregating local degrees of belief, updates, and adjusts its knowledge to contextual data outliers and novelty detection. We provide comprehensive experimental and comparison assessment of our model over real contextual data with other localized and centralized event detection models and show the benefits stemmed from its adoption by achieving up to three orders of magnitude less energy consumption and high quality of inference
Rationality and Subjective Bond Risk Premia
This paper documents large micro-heterogeneity and forecasting skill in the cross-section of survey based bond risk premia. We reject informationally constrained rational expectations but show a learning model distorted by sentiment is consistent with the data. Aggregating, we propose a belief measure for the marginal agent that is consistent with Friedman's market selection hypothesis. This measure is available in real-time and compares favourably to popular statistical models. Moreover, forecast errors from this measure, while predictable, are not easily corrected in real-time. Finally, we re-assess structural models and and support for both sentiment and time-varying quantity of risk channels
Asymptotically idempotent aggregation operators for trust management in multi-agent systems
The study of trust management in
multi-agent system, especially distributed,
has grown over the last
years. Trust is a complex subject
that has no general consensus in literature,
but has emerged the importance
of reasoning about it computationally.
Reputation systems takes
into consideration the history of an
entity’s actions/behavior in order to
compute trust, collecting and aggregating
ratings from members in a
community. In this scenario the aggregation
problem becomes fundamental,
in particular depending on
the environment. In this paper we
describe a technique based on a class
of asymptotically idempotent aggregation
operators, suitable particulary
for distributed anonymous environments
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