Agent-based simulation of open source evolution

We present an agent-based simulation model developed to study how size, complexity and effort relate to each other in the development of open source software (OSS). In the model, many developer agents generate, extend, and re-factor code modules independently and in parallel. This accords with empirical observations of OSS development. To our knowledge, this is the first model of OSS evolution that includes the complexity of software modules as a limiting factor in productivity, the fitness of the software to its requirements, and the motivation of developers. Validation of the model was done by comparing the simulated results against four measures of software evolution (system size, proportion of highly complex modules, level of complexity control work, and distribution of changes) for four large OSS systems. The simulated results resembled the observed data, except for system size: three of the OSS systems showed alternating patterns of super-linear and sub-linear growth, while the simulations produced only super-linear growth. However, the fidelity of the model for the other measures suggests that developer motivation and the limiting effect of complexity on productivity have a significant effect on the development of OSS systems and should be considered in any model of OSS development

Agent-based Simulation of Open Source Software Evolution

We present an agent-based simulation model of open source software (OSS). To our knowledge, this is the first model of OSS evolution that includes four significant factors: productivity limited by the complexity of software modules, the software's fitness for purpose, the motivation of developers, and the role of users in defining requirements. The model was evaluated by comparing the simulated results against four measures of software evolution (system size, proportion of highly complex modules, level of complexity control work, and distribution of changes) for four large OSS systems. The simulated results resembled all the observed data, including alternating periods of growth and stagnation. The fidelity of the model suggests that the factors included here have significant effects on the evolution of OSS systems

Agent-based Simulation of Open Source Evolution

We present an agent-based simulation model developed to study how size, complexity and effort relate to each other in the development of open source software (OSS). In the model, many developer agents generate, extend, and re-factor code modules independently and in parallel. This accords with empirical observations of OSS development. To our knowledge, this is the first model of OSS evolution that includes the complexity of software modules as a limiting factor in productivity, the fitness of the software to its requirements, and the motivation of developers. Validation of the model was done by comparing the simulated results against four measures of software evolution (system size, proportion of highly complex modules, level of complexity control work, and distribution of changes) for four large OSS systems. The simulated results resembled the observed data, except for system size: three of the OSS systems showed alternating patterns of super-linear and sub-linear growth, while the simulations produced only super-linear growth. However, the fidelity of the model for the other measures suggests that developer motivation and the limiting effect of complexity on productivity have a significant effect on the development of OSS systems and should be considered in any model of OSS development

Warlock: an automated computational workflow for simulating spatially structured tumour evolution

A primary goal of modern cancer research is to characterize tumour growth and evolution, to improve clinical forecasting and individualized treatment. Agent-based models support this endeavour but existing models either oversimplify spatial structure or are mathematically intractable. Here we present warlock, an open-source automated computational workflow for fast, efficient simulation of intratumour population genetics in any of a diverse set of spatial structures. Warlock encapsulates a deme-based oncology model (demon), designed to bridge the divide between agent-based simulations and analytical population genetics models, such as the spatial Moran process. Model output can be readily compared to multi-region and single-cell sequencing data for model selection or biological parameter inference. An interface for High Performance Computing permits hundreds of simulations to be run in parallel. We discuss prior applications of this workflow to investigating human cancer evolution

Development of Agent-Based Simulation Models for Software Evolution

Software ist ein Bestandteil des alltäglichen Lebens für uns geworden. Dies ist auch mit zunehmenden Anforderungen an die Anpassungsfähigkeit an sich schnell ändernde Umgebungen verbunden. Dieser evolutionäre Prozess der Software wird von einem dem Software Engineering zugehörigen Forschungsbereich, der Softwareevolution, untersucht. Die Änderungen an einer Software über die Zeit werden durch die Arbeit der Entwickler verursacht. Aus diesem Grund stellt das Entwicklerverhalten einen zentralen Bestandteil dar, wenn man die Evolution eines Softwareprojekts analysieren möchte. Für die Analyse realer Projekte steht eine Vielzahl von Open Source Projekten frei zur Verfügung. Für die Simulation von Softwareprojekten benutzen wir Multiagentensysteme, da wir damit das Verhalten der Entwickler detailliert beschrieben können. In dieser Dissertation entwickeln wir mehrere, aufeinander aufbauende, agentenbasierte Modelle, die unterschiedliche Aspekte der Software Evolution abdecken. Wir beginnen mit einem einfachen Modell ohne Abhängigkeiten zwischen den Agenten, mit dem man allein durch das Entwicklerverhalten das Wachstum eines realen Projekts simulativ reproduzieren kann. Darauffolgende Modelle wurden um weitere Agenten, zum Beispiel unterschiedliche Entwickler-Typen und Fehler, sowie Abhängigkeiten zwischen den Agenten ergänzt. Mit diesen erweiterten Modellen lassen sich unterschiedliche Fragestellungen betreffend Software Evolution simulativ beantworten. Eine dieser Fragen beantwortet zum Beispiel was mit der Software bezüglich ihrer Qualität passiert, wenn der Hauptentwickler das Projekt plötzlich verlässt. Das komplexeste Modell ist in der Lage Software Refactorings zu simulieren und nutzt dazu Graph Transformationen. Die Simulation erzeugt als Ausgabe einen Graphen, der die Software repräsentiert. Als Repräsentant der Software dient der Change-Coupling-Graph, der für die Simulation von Refactorings erweitert wird. Dieser Graph wird in dieser Arbeit als \emph{Softwaregraph} bezeichnet. Um die verschiedenen Modelle zu parametrisieren haben wir unterschiedliche Mining-Werkzeuge entwickelt. Diese Werkzeuge ermöglichen es uns ein Modell mit projektspezifischen Parametern zu instanziieren, ein Modell mit einem Snapshot des analysierten Projektes zu instanziieren oder Transformationsregeln zu parametrisieren, die für die Modellierung von Refactorings benötigt werden. Die Ergebnisse aus drei Fallstudien zeigen unter anderem, dass unser Ansatz agentenbasierte Simulation für die Vorhersage der Evolution von Software Projekten eine geeignete Wahl ist. Des Weiteren konnten wir zeigen, dass mit einer geeigneten Parameterwahl unterschiedliche Wachstumstrends der realen Software simulativ reproduzierbar sind. Die besten Ergebnisse für den simulierten Softwaregraphen erhalten wir, wenn wir die Simulation nach einer initialen Phase mit einem Snapshot der realen Software starten. Die Refactorings betreffend konnten wir zeigen, dass das Modell basierend auf Graph Transformationen anwendbar ist und dass das simulierte Wachstum sich damit leicht verbessern lässt.Software has become a part of everyday life for us. This is also associated with increasing requirements for adaptability to rapidly changing environments. This evolutionary process of software is being studied by a software engineering related research area, called software evolution. The changes to a software over time are caused by the work of the developers. For this reason, the developer contribution behavior is central for analyzing the evolution of a software project. For the analysis of real projects, a variety of open source projects is freely available. For the simulation of software projects, we use multiagent systems because this allows us to describe the behavior of the developers in detail. In this thesis, we develop several successive agent-based models that cover different aspects of software evolution. We start with a simple model with no dependencies between the agents that can simulative reproduce the growth of a real project solely based on the developer’s contribution behavior. Subsequent models were supplemented by additional agents, such as different developer types and bugs, as well as dependencies between the agents. These advanced models can then be used to answer different questions concerning software evolution simulative. For example, one of these questions answers what happens to the software in terms of quality when the core developer suddenly leaves the project. The most complex model can simulate software refactorings based on graph transformations. The simulation output is a graph which represents the software. The representative of the software is the change coupling graph, which is extended for the simulation of refactorings. In this thesis, this graph is denoted as \emph{software graph}. To parameterize these models, we have developed different mining tools. These tools allow us to instantiate a model with project-specific parameters, to instantiate a model with a snapshot of the analyzed project, or to parameterize the transformation rules required to model refactorings. The results of three case studies show, among other things, that our approach to use agent-based simulation is an appropriate choice for predicting the evolution of software projects. Furthermore, we were able to show that different growth trends of the real software can be reproduced simulative with a suitable selection of simulation parameters. The best results for the simulated software graph are obtained when we start the simulation after an initial phase with a snapshot of real software. Regarding refactorings, we were able to show that the model based on graph transformations is applicable and that it can slightly improve the simulated growth

A framework for the simulation of structural software evolution

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ 2008 ACM.As functionality is added to an aging piece of software, its original design and structure will tend to erode. This can lead to high coupling, low cohesion and other undesirable effects associated with spaghetti architectures. The underlying forces that cause such degradation have been the subject of much research. However, progress in this field is slow, as its complexity makes it difficult to isolate the causal flows leading to these effects. This is further complicated by the difficulty of generating enough empirical data, in sufficient quantity, and attributing such data to specific points in the causal chain. This article describes a framework for simulating the structural evolution of software. A complete simulation model is built by incrementally adding modules to the framework, each of which contributes an individual evolutionary effect. These effects are then combined to form a multifaceted simulation that evolves a fictitious code base in a manner approximating real-world behavior. We describe the underlying principles and structures of our framework from a theoretical and user perspective; a validation of a simple set of evolutionary parameters is then provided and three empirical software studies generated from open-source software (OSS) are used to support claims and generated results. The research illustrates how simulation can be used to investigate a complex and under-researched area of the development cycle. It also shows the value of incorporating certain human traits into a simulation—factors that, in real-world system development, can significantly influence evolutionary structures

An Agent-Based Simulation Model for Understanding Diffusion Dynamics of Open-Source (OS) Software in the Presence of Upgrades

There is an increasing interest in the evolution of open-source software (OS). Researchers as well as practitioners are trying to better understand factors that impact the diffusion of OS. This paper presents an agent-based model of OS diffusion. Specifically, we investigate how software upgrade cycle affects firms’ OS adoption. In addition, we also incorporate factors such as variability in OS support costs, interoperability issues and network structure that have not been systematically studied in prior OS research. Simulation results demonstrate the individual and interaction effects of these variables on the rate of OS diffusion. High variability in OS support costs and more frequent introduction of major upgrades encourage OS diffusion. The rate of diffusion is also influenced by the degree of cliquishness in the network structure. Interoperability issues hinder OS diffusion when proprietary software (PS) is currently the dominant standard. However, if other factors encourage OS diffusion and a critical mass of OS adopters is reached, then interoperability issues encourage OS diffusion. The impact of interactions between network structures and other factors on diffusion dynamics is also illustrated

Towards formal models and languages for verifiable Multi-Robot Systems

Incorrect operations of a Multi-Robot System (MRS) may not only lead to unsatisfactory results, but can also cause economic losses and threats to safety. These threats may not always be apparent, since they may arise as unforeseen consequences of the interactions between elements of the system. This call for tools and techniques that can help in providing guarantees about MRSs behaviour. We think that, whenever possible, these guarantees should be backed up by formal proofs to complement traditional approaches based on testing and simulation. We believe that tailored linguistic support to specify MRSs is a major step towards this goal. In particular, reducing the gap between typical features of an MRS and the level of abstraction of the linguistic primitives would simplify both the specification of these systems and the verification of their properties. In this work, we review different agent-oriented languages and their features; we then consider a selection of case studies of interest and implement them useing the surveyed languages. We also evaluate and compare effectiveness of the proposed solution, considering, in particular, easiness of expressing non-trivial behaviour.Comment: Changed formattin

Simulation of a public e-bike sharing system

Urban areas are in need of efficient and sustainable mobility service and it seems that one of the options that arouses more interest are public bicycles systems, which in the last decade have been promoted in cities all over the world almost exponentially, surpassing the 500 bike-sharing programs worldwide. This has resulted in a continuous evolution of these systems, which, due to their recent appearance, have practically gone ahead of the works focused on their study. This thesis intends to develop an agent-based simulation model to emulate a bikesharing system, in order to allow the optimization of the main strategic and tactical system variables, such as the total number of bicycles, the number of reposition equipment, the size of the stations and the occupancy after being repositioned, that is, its balanced occupancy. The model will be applied and validated with the parameter values of the system currently applied in Barcelona and an improved scenario will be posed to analyze the performance of a better hypothetical solution for balanced occupancy as an example of the simulator potential. The simulation is coded in Matlab® environment, using the paradigm of Object Oriented Programming, which aims to ease its use, understanding and expansion, following the open-source philosophy, which has proliferated in recent years. The document contains the description of the model and the performance of the program, its structure, and its validation. In addition, the source code can be found attached for its free download and use