A cognitive architecture for emergency response

Plan recognition, cognitive workload estimation and human assistance have been extensively studied in the AI and human factors communities, resulting in many techniques being applied to domains of various levels of realism. These techniques have seldom been integrated and evaluated as complete systems. In this paper, we report on the development of an assistant agent architecture that integrates plan recognition, current and future user information needs, workload estimation and adaptive information presentation to aid an emergency response manager in making high quality decisions under time stress, while avoiding cognitive overload. We describe the main components of a full implementation of this architecture as well as a simulation developed to evaluate the system. Our evaluation consists of simulating various possible executions of the emergency response plans used in the real world and measuring the expected time taken by an unaided human user, as well as one that receives information assistance from our system. In the experimental condition of agent assistance, we also examine the effects of different error rates in the agent's estimation of user's stat or information needs

A Framework for Enhancing the Operational Phase of Traffic Management Plans

Road traffic emergencies are dangerous and unexpected situations that require immediate actions by the authorities. These actions involve to attend to the people who have been affected by the emergency and to minimize its consequences. A Traffic Management Plan (TMP) is a set of pre-defined measures and actions designed to produce an effective and efficient use of available resources in order to deal with a specific road incident. The operational phase of a TMP involves the coordination of several independent agencies (road managers, traffic police, firemen, etc.). These agencies must provide the resources required by the TMP in the deployment of the measures and actions. In this paper, a new framework to support the TMP operational phase is presented. This framework models each agency as an intelligent agent and it uses a reverse combinatorial distributed auction as the core component of a negotiation process. The goal of this negotiation process is to obtain a common agreement on the best possible allocation of resources taking into account the role, competencies and interest of the involved agencies. The framework has been implemented in a real scenario with real data. The tests developed have demonstrated that the system is able to manage the resources in terms of the execution time and the quality of the provided solutions

Modeling uncertain and dynamic casualty health in optimization-based decision support for mass casualty incident response

When designing a decision support program for use in coordinating the response to Mass Casualty Incidents, the modelling of the health of casualties presents a significant challenge. In this paper we propose one such health model, capable of acknowledging both the uncertain and dynamic nature of casualty health. Incorporating this into a larger optimisation model capable of use in real-time and in an online manner, computational experiments examining the effect of errors in health assessment, regular updates of health and delays in communication are reported. Results demonstrate the often significant impact of these factors

Incident Traffic Management Respone

The North Carolina State Highway Patrol (NCSHP) and the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) are often called upon to assist in traffic incidents. Yet little systematic research has examined the extent to which these two agencies collaborate. This gap in understanding is problematic, as a lack of collaboration may result in significant delays in the clearing of traffic incidents. The purpose of this correlational study was to investigate circumstances when the two agencies collaborated in clearing major traffic incidents, and the efficiency of the clearance of the incidents, through the measurement of normal traffic flow. The theory of the convergence of resources from divergent organizations framed the study. The research questions addressed the extent of collaboration between the NCSHP and the NCDOT, the conditions under which this collaboration took place, and the efficiency of the clearance of these incidents. Data were obtained from the NCSHP and the NCDOT on characteristics of 1,580 traffic incidents that occurred on the North Carolina portion of Interstate 95 during the year 2014. The data were analyzed using chi-square tests, analyses of variance, and Z-tests for proportions. Collaboration between the two agencies occurred in 7.2% of all of the incidents and in 21.6% of incidents of major severity (p \u3c .001), which indicated a low level of interagency collaboration. The mean clearance time for incidents in which collaboration took place was 115.92 minutes compared to a national goal of 90 minutes. It is hoped that these results can contribute to policy dialogue relevant to the state\u27s Strategic Plan, leading to safer highways and less financial loss due to congestion caused by traffic incidents

Optimizing emergency preparedness and resource utilization in mass-casualty incidents

This paper presents a response model for the aftermath of a Mass-Casualty Incident (MCI) that can be used to provide operational guidance for regional emergency planning as well as to evaluate strategic preparedness plans. A mixed integer programming (MIP) formulation is proposed for the combined ambulance dispatching, patient-to-hospital assignment, and treatment ordering problem. T he goal is to allocate effectively the limited resources during the response so as to improve patient outcomes, while the objectives are to minimize the overall response time and the total flow time required to treat all patients, in a hierarchical fashion. The model is solved via exact and MIP-based heuristic solution methods. The applicability of the model and the performance of the new methods are challenged on realistic MCI scenarios. We consider the hypothetical case of a terror attack at the New York Stock Exchange in Lower Manhattan with up to 150 trauma patients. We quantify the impact of capacity-based bottlenecks for both ambulances and available hospital beds. We also explore the trade-off between accessing remote hospitals for demand smoothing versus reduced ambulance transportation times

Online Optimisation of Casualty Processing in Major Incident Response

Recent emergency response operations to Mass Casualty Incidents (MCIs) have been criticised for a lack of coordination, implying that there is clear potential for response operations to be improved and for corresponding benefits in terms of the health and well-being of those affected by such incidents. In this thesis, the use of mathematical modelling, and in particular optimisation, is considered as a means with which to help improve the coordination of MCI response. Upon reviewing the nature of decision making in MCIs and other disaster response operations in practice, this work demonstrates through an in-depth review of the available academic literature that an important problem has yet to be modelled and solved using an optimisation methodology. This thesis involves the development of such a model, identifying an appropriate task scheduling formulation of the decision problem and a number of objective functions corresponding to the goals of the MCI response decision makers. Efficient solution methodologies are developed to allow for solutions to the model, and therefore to the MCI response operation, to be found in a timely manner. Following on from the development of the optimisation model, the dynamic and uncertain nature of the MCI response environment is considered in detail. Highlighting the lack of relevant research considering this important aspect of the problem, the optimisation model is extended to allow for its use in real-time. In order to allow for the utility of the model to be thoroughly examined, a complementary simulation is developed and an interface allowing for its communication with the optimisation model specified. Extensive computational experiments are reported, demonstrating both the danger of developing and applying optimisation models under a set of unrealistic assumptions, and the potential for the model developed in this work to deliver improvements in MCI response operations

Development of emergency response systems by intelligent and integrated approaches for marine oil spill accidents

Oil products play a pervasive role in modern society as one of the dominant energy fuel sources. Marine activities related to oil extraction and transportation play a vital role in resource supply. However, marine oil spills occur due to such human activities or harsh environmental factors. The emergency accidents of spills cause negative impacts on the marine environment, human health, and economic loss. The responses to marine oil spills, especially large-scale spills, are relatively challenging and inefficient due to changing environmental conditions, limited response resources, various unknown or uncertain factors and complex resource allocation processes. The development of previous research mainly focused on single process simulation, prediction, or optimization (e.g., oil trajectory, weathering, or cleanup optimization). There is still a lack of research on comprehensive and integrated emergency responses considering multiple types of simulations, types of resource allocations, stages of accident occurrence to response, and criteria for system optimizations. Optimization algorithms are an important part of system optimization and decision-making. Their performance directly affacts the quality of emergency response systems and operations. Thus, how to improve efficiency of emergency response systems becomes urgent and essential for marine oil spill management. The power and potential of integrating intelligent-based modeling of dynamic processes and system optimization have been recognized to better support oil spill responders with more efficient response decisions and planning tools. Meanwhile, response decision-making combined with human factor analysis can help quantitatively evaluate the impacts of multiple causal factors on the overall processes and operational performance after an accident. To address the challenges and gaps, this dissertation research focused on the development and improvement of new emergency response systems and their applications for marine oil spill response in the following aspects: 1) Realization of coupling dynamic simulation and system optimization for marine oil spill responses - The developed Simulation-Based Multi-Agent Particle Swarm Optimization (SA-PSO) modeling investigated the capacity of agent-based modeling on dynamic simulation of spill fate and response, particle swarm optimization on response allocation with minimal time and multi-agent system on information sharing. 2) Investigation of multi-type resource allocation under a complex simulation condition and improvement of optimization performance - The improved emergency response system was achieved by dynamic resource transportation, oil weathering and response simulations and resource allocation optimization. The enhanced particle swarm optimization (ME-PSO) algorithm performed outstanding convergence performance and low computation cost characteristics integrating multi-agent theory (MA) and evolutionary population dynamics (EPD). 3) Analysis and evaluation of influencing factors of multiple stages of spill accidents based on human factors/errors and multi-criteria decision making - The developed human factors analysis and classification system for marine oil spill accidents (HFACS-OS) framework qualitatively evaluated the influence of various factors and errors associated with the multiple operational stages considered for oil spill preparedness and response (e.g., oil spill occurrence, spill monitoring, decision making/contingency planning, and spill response). The framework was further coupled with quantitative data analysis by Fuzzy-based Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Idea Solution (Fuzzy-TOPSIS) to enhance decision-making during response operations under multiple criteria. 4) Development of a multi-criteria emergency response system with the enhanced optimization algorithm, multi-mode resource transportation and allocation and a more complex and realistic simulation modelling - The developed multi-criteria emergency response system (MC-ERS) system integrated dynamic process simulations and weighted multi-criteria system optimization. Total response time, response cost and environmental impacts were regarded as multiple optimization goals. An improved weighted sum optimization function was developed to unify the scaling and proportion of different goals. A comparative PSO was also developed with various algorithm-improving methods and the best-performing inertia weight function. The proposed emergency response approaches in studies were examined by oil spill case studies related to the North Atlantic Ocean and Canada circumstances to analyze the modelling performance and evaluate their practicality and applicability. The developed optimization algorithms were tested by benchmarked functions, other optimization algorithms, and an oil spill case. The developed emergency response systems and the contained simulation and optimization algorithms showed the strong capability for decision-making and emergency responses by recommending optimal resource management or evaluations of essential factors. This research was expected to provide time-efficient, and cost-saving emergency response management approaches for handling and managing marine oil spills. The research also improved our knowledge of the significance of human factors/errors to oil spill accidents and response operations and provided improved support tools for decision making. The dissertation research helped fill some important gaps in emergency response research and management practice, especially in marine oil spill response, through an innovative integration of dynamic simulation, resource optimization, human factor analysis, and artificial intelligence methods. The research outcomes can also provide methodological support and valuable references for other fields that require timely and effective decisions, system optimizations, process controls, planning and designs under complicated conditions, uncertainties, and interactions

An operational research-based integrated approach for mass evacuation planning of a city

Large-scale disasters are constantly occurring around the world, and in many cases evacuation of regions of city is needed. ‘Operational Research/Management Science’ (OR/MS) has been widely used in emergency planning for over five decades. Warning dissemination, evacuee transportation and shelter management are three ‘Evacuation Support Functions’ (ESF) generic to many hazards. This thesis has adopted a case study approach to illustrate the importance of integrated approach of evacuation planning and particularly the role of OR/MS models. In the warning dissemination phase, uncertainty in the household’s behaviour as ‘warning informants’ has been investigated along with uncertainties in the warning system. An agentbased model (ABM) was developed for ESF-1 with households as agents and ‘warning informants’ behaviour as the agent behaviour. The model was used to study warning dissemination effectiveness under various conditions of the official channel. In the transportation phase, uncertainties in the household’s behaviour such as departure time (a function of ESF-1), means of transport and destination have been. Households could evacuate as pedestrians, using car or evacuation buses. An ABM was developed to study the evacuation performance (measured in evacuation travel time). In this thesis, a holistic approach for planning the public evacuation shelters called ‘Shelter Information Management System’ (SIMS) has been developed. A generic allocation framework of was developed to available shelter capacity to the shelter demand by considering the evacuation travel time. This was formulated using integer programming. In the sheltering phase, the uncertainty in household shelter choices (either nearest/allocated/convenient) has been studied for its impact on allocation policies using sensitivity analyses. Using analyses from the models and detailed examination of household states from ‘warning to safety’, it was found that the three ESFs though sequential in time, however have lot of interdependencies from the perspective of evacuation planning. This thesis has illustrated an OR/MS based integrated approach including and beyond single ESF preparedness. The developed approach will help in understanding the inter-linkages of the three evacuation phases and preparing a multi-agency-based evacuation planning evacuatio

Training of Crisis Mappers and Map Production from Multi-sensor Data: Vernazza Case Study (Cinque Terre National Park, Italy)

This aim of paper is to presents the development of a multidisciplinary project carried out by the cooperation between Politecnico di Torino and ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action). The goal of the project was the training in geospatial data acquiring and processing for students attending Architecture and Engineering Courses, in order to start up a team of "volunteer mappers". Indeed, the project is aimed to document the environmental and built heritage subject to disaster; the purpose is to improve the capabilities of the actors involved in the activities connected in geospatial data collection, integration and sharing. The proposed area for testing the training activities is the Cinque Terre National Park, registered in the World Heritage List since 1997. The area was affected by flood on the 25th of October 2011. According to other international experiences, the group is expected to be active after emergencies in order to upgrade maps, using data acquired by typical geomatic methods and techniques such as terrestrial and aerial Lidar, close-range and aerial photogrammetry, topographic and GNSS instruments etc.; or by non conventional systems and instruments such us UAV, mobile mapping etc. The ultimate goal is to implement a WebGIS platform to share all the data collected with local authorities and the Civil Protectio

AGENT-BASED DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION MODELING AND EVOLUTIONARY REAL-TIME DECISION MAKING FOR LARGE-SCALE SYSTEMS

Computer simulations are routines programmed to imitate detailed system operations. They are utilized to evaluate system performance and/or predict future behaviors under certain settings. In complex cases where system operations cannot be formulated explicitly by analytical models, simulations become the dominant mode of analysis as they can model systems without relying on unrealistic or limiting assumptions and represent actual systems more faithfully. Two main streams exist in current simulation research and practice: discrete event simulation and agent-based simulation. This dissertation facilitates the marriage of the two. By integrating the agent-based modeling concepts into the discrete event simulation framework, we can take advantage of and eliminate the disadvantages of both methods.Although simulation can represent complex systems realistically, it is a descriptive tool without the capability of making decisions. However, it can be complemented by incorporating optimization routines. The most challenging problem is that large-scale simulation models normally take a considerable amount of computer time to execute so that the number of solution evaluations needed by most optimization algorithms is not feasible within a reasonable time frame. This research develops a highly efficient evolutionary simulation-based decision making procedure which can be applied in real-time management situations. It basically divides the entire process time horizon into a series of small time intervals and operates simulation optimization algorithms for those small intervals separately and iteratively. This method improves computational tractability by decomposing long simulation runs; it also enhances system dynamics by incorporating changing information/data as the event unfolds. With respect to simulation optimization, this procedure solves efficient analytical models which can approximate the simulation and guide the search procedure to approach near optimality quickly.The methods of agent-based discrete event simulation modeling and evolutionary simulation-based decision making developed in this dissertation are implemented to solve a set of disaster response planning problems. This research also investigates a unique approach to validating low-probability, high-impact simulation systems based on a concrete example problem. The experimental results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of our model compared to other existing systems