Microsimulation models incorporating both demand and supply dynamics

There has been rapid growth in interest in real-time transport strategies over the last decade, ranging from automated highway systems and responsive traffic signal control to incident management and driver information systems. The complexity of these strategies, in terms of the spatial and temporal interactions within the transport system, has led to a parallel growth in the application of traffic microsimulation models for the evaluation and design of such measures, as a remedy to the limitations faced by conventional static, macroscopic approaches. However, while this naturally addresses the immediate impacts of the measure, a difficulty that remains is the question of how the secondary impacts, specifically the effect on route and departure time choice of subsequent trips, may be handled in a consistent manner within a microsimulation framework. The paper describes a modelling approach to road network traffic, in which the emphasis is on the integrated microsimulation of individual trip-makers’ decisions and individual vehicle movements across the network. To achieve this it represents directly individual drivers’ choices and experiences as they evolve from day-to-day, combined with a detailed within-day traffic simulation model of the space–time trajectories of individual vehicles according to car-following and lane-changing rules and intersection regulations. It therefore models both day-to-day and within-day variability in both demand and supply conditions, and so, we believe, is particularly suited for the realistic modelling of real-time strategies such as those listed above. The full model specification is given, along with details of its algorithmic implementation. A number of representative numerical applications are presented, including: sensitivity studies of the impact of day-to-day variability; an application to the evaluation of alternative signal control policies; and the evaluation of the introduction of bus-only lanes in a sub-network of Leeds. Our experience demonstrates that this modelling framework is computationally feasible as a method for providing a fully internally consistent, microscopic, dynamic assignment, incorporating both within- and between-day demand and supply dynamic

The Demand Potential of an Urban Freight Consolidation Centre

Urban Transport, stated preferences, service contract.

Three essays on urban freight transport: models and tools for effective city logistics projects

The main purpose of these three years of research, summarized in this thesis, was to investigate the obstacles to the development of the city logistics initiatives by seeking solutions to overcome them through model and framework coming from management and transportation engineering. In particular, following a first analysis of a collection of European projects and a systematic analysis of scientific literature, three main gaps in city logistics have been identified: the lack of the stakeholders’ involvement, the need for data sharing platforms to overcome the current lack of data and the need to define city logistics solutions within the urban ecosystem, making consistent design choices coherently with what is already existing in terms of infrastructures, rules and stakeholders in the context. From these three gaps, three main research questions have arisen: (RQ1) Is it possible to support stakeholders in analysing CL solutions fitting their necessities applying some already existing and consolidate decision-making methods? (RQ2) Is it possible to define a database platform in which it is possible to collect, consult and update as many existing data as possible regarding urban freight transport? (RQ3) How is it possible to optimize city logistics infrastructures in a harmonious and coherent way with respect to the entire city logistics ecosystem? To answers to the research questions, a collection of articles is illustrated in this thesis work. From time to time different methodologies are used and illustrated, derived from the field of management and transport engineering, these different methodologies, such as the Systematic Literature Review, the House of Quality, a framework for building a data sharing platform, the city logistics Ecosystem and a decision-making support model (based on both a covering model and a Monte Carlo simulation) are described in detail in the various chapters of the thesis. In this dissertation work for the first time, the main obstacles to the development of city logistics initiatives, that are the lack of involvement of stakeholders, the lack of data, and the lack of an ecosystem vision of urban transport, have been identified and addressed at the same time. Even if literature sometimes offers some possible solutions to these gaps, few are simple to understand for those who work in the urban freight transport industry, easy to apply and replicable. Both in identifying the gap and in seeking solutions, the solutions showed in this thesis sought to address to those who work in the industry, mainly carriers, retailers, shop owners and public administration representatives, trying to combine scientific research with the search for solutions that can be implemented in practice as requested by such a practical research topic. For this reason, each proposed solution and methodology in this thesis has been implemented and experimented using as a case study the city of Bergamo (and testing its replicability in other European cities such as Saint-Etienne, Luxemburg and Amsterdam). In particular, the initial experience in the “Bergamo Logistica” project, part of the Bergamo 2.035 smart city research program, gave me the opportunity to understand the main critical issues found by the main actors who work in this field (i.e., carriers, couriers, retailers and institutions), to confirm some evidences that I found in the theory (i.e., main research gaps which originates the research questions) and to search for solutions that could both solve research gaps and optimize the daily logistics activities of the operators.The main purpose of these three years of research, summarized in this thesis, was to investigate the obstacles to the development of the city logistics initiatives by seeking solutions to overcome them through model and framework coming from management and transportation engineering. In particular, following a first analysis of a collection of European projects and a systematic analysis of scientific literature, three main gaps in city logistics have been identified: the lack of the stakeholders’ involvement, the need for data sharing platforms to overcome the current lack of data and the need to define city logistics solutions within the urban ecosystem, making consistent design choices coherently with what is already existing in terms of infrastructures, rules and stakeholders in the context. From these three gaps, three main research questions have arisen: (RQ1) Is it possible to support stakeholders in analysing CL solutions fitting their necessities applying some already existing and consolidate decision-making methods? (RQ2) Is it possible to define a database platform in which it is possible to collect, consult and update as many existing data as possible regarding urban freight transport? (RQ3) How is it possible to optimize city logistics infrastructures in a harmonious and coherent way with respect to the entire city logistics ecosystem? To answers to the research questions, a collection of articles is illustrated in this thesis work. From time to time different methodologies are used and illustrated, derived from the field of management and transport engineering, these different methodologies, such as the Systematic Literature Review, the House of Quality, a framework for building a data sharing platform, the city logistics Ecosystem and a decision-making support model (based on both a covering model and a Monte Carlo simulation) are described in detail in the various chapters of the thesis. In this dissertation work for the first time, the main obstacles to the development of city logistics initiatives, that are the lack of involvement of stakeholders, the lack of data, and the lack of an ecosystem vision of urban transport, have been identified and addressed at the same time. Even if literature sometimes offers some possible solutions to these gaps, few are simple to understand for those who work in the urban freight transport industry, easy to apply and replicable. Both in identifying the gap and in seeking solutions, the solutions showed in this thesis sought to address to those who work in the industry, mainly carriers, retailers, shop owners and public administration representatives, trying to combine scientific research with the search for solutions that can be implemented in practice as requested by such a practical research topic. For this reason, each proposed solution and methodology in this thesis has been implemented and experimented using as a case study the city of Bergamo (and testing its replicability in other European cities such as Saint-Etienne, Luxemburg and Amsterdam). In particular, the initial experience in the “Bergamo Logistica” project, part of the Bergamo 2.035 smart city research program, gave me the opportunity to understand the main critical issues found by the main actors who work in this field (i.e., carriers, couriers, retailers and institutions), to confirm some evidences that I found in the theory (i.e., main research gaps which originates the research questions) and to search for solutions that could both solve research gaps and optimize the daily logistics activities of the operators

A Framework on New Travel Demand Model Based on Potential Travelers and Surrounding Land Uses for Rapid Transit

One of the public transports is rapid transit, which provides the highest performance mode of urban transportation. Currently, existing rapid transit travel demand analysis from the service provider is based on ticketing data that contain information such as time travel, origin and destination; which is using trip based method. This method has its limitation such as the demand is for trip making rather than for activities as well as having spatial, temporal and demographic aggregation errors. It also failed to predict the travel demand when there is future development or growth in the surrounding area. Therefore, new method for modeling travel demand is needed. This paper proposes a framework of new model and analytics for travel demands of rapid transits based on big data of potential travelers and surrounding land uses. Land uses and transportation are interdependent. With this proposed concept, the accurate travel demand for rapid transit in the future will be met. Therefore, the rapid transit service will have excellence operation, which includes optimum frequency, punctuality and reliable service

The transformation of transport policy in Great Britain? 'New Realism' and New Labour's decade of displacement activity

In a 1999 paper, Goodwin announced ‘the transformation of transport policy in Great Britain’. His central point was that consensus was emerging among policy makers and academics based on earlier work including Transport: The New Realism, which rejected previous orthodoxy that the supply of road space could and should be continually expanded to match demand. Instead a combination of investment in public transport, walking and cycling opportunities and – crucially – demand management should form the basis of transport policy to address rising vehicle use and associated increases in congestion and pollution / carbon emissions. This thinking formed the basis of the 1997 Labour government’s ‘sustainable transport’ policy, but after 13 years in power ministers neither transformed policy nor tackled longstanding transport trends. Our main aim in this paper is to revisit the concept of New Realism and re-examine its potential utility as an agent of change in British transport policy. Notwithstanding the outcome of Labour’s approach to transport policy, we find that the central tenets of the New Realism remain robust and that the main barriers to change are related to broader political and governance issues which suppress radical policy innovation

Marginal Social Cost Pricing on a Transportation Network: Comparison of Second-Best Policies

In this paper we evaluate and compare long-run economic effects of six road-pricing schemes aimed at internalizing social costs of transportation. In order to conduct this analysis, we employ a spatially disaggregated general equilibrium model of a regional economy that incorporates decisions of residents, firms, and developers, integrated with a spatially-disaggregated strategic transportation planning model that features mode, time period, and route choice. The model is calibrated to the greater Washington, DC metropolitan area. We compare two social cost functions - one restricted to congestion alone and another that accounts for other external effects of transportation. We find that when the ultimate policy goal is a reduction in the complete set of motor vehicle externalities, cordon-like policies and variable-toll policies lose some attractiveness compared to policies based primarily on mileage. We also find that full social cost pricing requires very high toll levels and therefore is bound to be controversial.traffic congestion, social cost pricing, land use, welfare analysis, road pricing, general equilibrium, simulation, Washington DC

Technology: a necessary but not sufficient condition for future personal mobility

Número especial: Sustainable Road Transportation Planning[Abstract:] Technological advances revolutionize industrial processes, science, communications, and our way of life. However, developed societies have reached a stage in which the fascination with technological innovations often results in their indiscriminate consumption. In this paper, road traffic is used as a line of argument to demonstrate that the random introduction of technology does not imply benefits to society. Particularly, it is analyzed why some of the potential benefits of technological progress are lost in fields such as traffic monitoring, data handling, and traffic management, or in sustainable mobility initiatives, such as the introduction of electric vehicles or the implementation vehicle sharing projects. The risks faced in the future advent of autonomous vehicles are also discussed, and ideas for improvement suggested. A critical reflection on other transportation modes that are expected to be realized in the near future is included as well. The performed analysis evidences that the potential improvement in personal mobility will not become a reality if it exclusively relies on the latest technological devices, in line with consumers’ fantasies or economic interests. This is a statement that could be generalized to many other fields. The implementation/consumption of a particular technology should not be an objective in itself, but a tool to bring benefits to society.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad; TRA2016-79019-R/COO

Optimisation Of Policies For Transport Integration In Metropolitan Areas: Report on Work Package 20.

The task of work package 20 was to inventory all transport policy measures in use, used or tested but rejected or planned in the nine test cities Edinburgh, Merseyside, Vienna, Eisenstadt, Helsinki, Turin, Salerno, Oslo and Tromso. The inventory was done in two phases. In the first phase a three-part questionnaire was sent out to all test cities. Form 1 is a summary form for all the measures reported by the city. Form 2 is a form for detailed description of a measure or a combination of measures. Form 3 is a form for a more detailed description of the city, its demographics and transport system for to better understand the measures. The forms were accompanied by instructions for filling and a list of possible transport policy measures. The questionnaires are in appendix 1A. The measures reported by all the cities were then summarised under common categories. In the first project meeting the measures that are possible to model in all test cities were collaboratively chosen for still more detailed consideration. In this phase a second questionnaire was sent out for more detailed description of the extent and costs of the measures chosen. The means for representing these measures in the specific model was also obtained. The questionnaires of the second round are in appendix 1B

Modeling and optimizing network infrastructure for autonomous vehicles

Autonomous vehicle (AV) technology has matured sufficiently to be in testing on public roads. However, traffic models of AVs are still in development. Most previous work has studied AV technologies in micro-simulation. The purpose of this dissertation is to model and optimize AV technologies for large city networks to predict how AVs might affect city traffic patterns and travel behaviors. To accomplish these goals, we construct a dynamic network loading model for AVs, consisting of link and node models of AV technologies, which is used to calculate time-dependent travel times in dynamic traffic assignment. We then study several applications of the dynamic network loading to predict how AVs might affect travel demand and traffic congestion. AVs admit reduced perception-reaction times through technologies such as (cooperative) adaptive cruise control, which can reduce following headways and increase capacity. Previous work has studied these in micro-simulation, but we construct a mesoscopic simulation model for analyses on large networks. To study scenarios with both autonomous and conventional vehicles, we modify the kinematic wave theory to include multiple classes of flow. The flow-density relationship also changes in space and time with the class proportions. We present multiclass cell transmission model and prove that it is a Godunov approximation to the multiclass kinematic wave theory. We also develop a car-following model to predict the fundamental diagram at arbitrary proportions of AVs. Complete market penetration scenarios admit dynamic lane reversal -- changing lane direction at high frequencies to more optimally allocate road capacity. We develop a kinematic wave theory in which the number of lanes changes in space and time, and approximately solve it with a cell transmission model. We study two methods of determining lane direction. First, we present a mixed integer linear program for system optimal dynamic traffic assignment. Since this program is computationally difficult to solve, we also study dynamic lane reversal on a single link with deterministic and stochastic demands. The resulting policy is shown to significantly reduce travel times on a city network. AVs also admit reservation-based intersection control, which can make greater use of intersection capacity than traffic signals. AVs communicate with the intersection manager to reserve space-time paths through the intersection. We create a mesoscopic node model by starting with the conflict point variant of reservations and aggregating conflict points into capacity-constrained conflict regions. This model yields an integer program that can be adapted to arbitrary objective functions. To motivate optimization, we present several examples on theoretical and realistic networks demonstrating that naïve reservation policies can perform worse than traffic signals. These occur due to asymmetric intersections affecting optimal capacity allocation and/or user equilibrium route choice behavior. To improve reservations, we adapt the decentralized backpressure wireless packet routing and P0 traffic signal policies for reservations. Results show significant reductions in travel times on a city network. Having developed link and node models, we explore how AVs might affect travel demand and congestion. First, we study how capacity increases and reservations might affect freeway, arterial, and city networks. Capacity increases consistently reduced congestion on all networks, but reservations were not always beneficial. Then, we use dynamic traffic assignment within a four-step planning model, adding the mode choice of empty repositioning trips to avoid parking costs. Results show that allowing empty repositioning to encourage adoption of AVs could reduce congestion. Also, once all vehicles are AVs, congestion will still be significantly reduced. Finally, we present a framework to use the dynamic network loading model to study shared AVs. Results show that shared AVs could reduce congestion if used in certain ways, such as with dynamic ride-sharing. However, shared AVs also cause significant congestion. To summarize, this dissertation presents a complete mesoscopic simulation model of AVs that could be used for a variety of studies of AVs by planners and practitioners. This mesoscopic model includes new node and link technologies that significantly improve travel times over existing infrastructure. In addition, we motivate and present more optimal policies for these AV technologies. Finally, we study several travel behavior scenarios to provide insights about how AV technologies might affect future traffic congestion. The models in this dissertation will provide a basis for future network analyses of AV technologies.Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineerin

The Automobile at Rest: Toward Better Parking Policies in the Delaware Valley

The Automobile at Rest: Toward Better Parking Policies in the Delaware Valley presents an overview of parking policies and requirements in the Delaware Valley region, along with strategies for managing and designing parking better. Each of the region's 353 municipalities set their own parking requirements within their municipal zoning ordinance, usually based on national standards from the Institute of Transportation Engineers and/or the Urban Land Institute. These requirements are detailed in a separately published Appendix titled Municipal Parking Standards Inventory. These standards often assume that all trips will be made by car and that destinations will be isolated and single use in character. The standards fail to recognize the different types of parking provisions that may be desirable or cost appropriate for different contexts, such as downtowns, suburban shopping districts, or rural areas. Municipal parking ordinances therefore often result in too much parking or requirements that are not flexible for mixed-use settings. These requirements have a strong influence on the built and natural environment and how the community grows or redevelops. The report also examines ways to reduce parking demand and improve parking supply where appropriate or necessary through parking management strategies, such as pricing, car-sharing, and shared parking, among others. Different types of parking are examined, from surface parking to underground parking to bicycle parking, along with innovative design treatments. The report also examines the environmental impacts of parking with a focus on the critical issue of stormwater. Lastly, the relationship between parking and transit is considered, particularly park-and-rides and transitoriented development. This report provides planners, local leadership, and citizens with information about best practices for designing, managing, and regulating parking