8 research outputs found
Market Design for the Transition to Renewable Electricity Systems
The research carried out in this thesis aims to shed light on the role of the European electricity market design in the transition to a target electricity system that combines sustainability, affordability, and reliability. While the ongoing expansion of fluctuating renewable electricity sources challenges the established structures and market mechanisms, governments across Europe have decided to phase-out certain conventional technologies like coal or nuclear power. Since traditional electricity systems rely on flexibility provided by controllable generation capacity, other flexibility options are needed to compensate for the decommissioned conventional power plants and support the system integration of renewables.
Against this background, the dissertation extends an established large-scale agent-based electricity market model in order to account for the developments towards an integrated European electricity market and the characteristics of storage technologies. In particular, the representation of cross-border effects is enhanced by integrating approaches from the fields of operations research, non-cooperative game theory, and artificial intelligence in the simulation framework. The extended model is then applied in three case studies to analyze the diffusion of different flexibility options under varying regulatory settings. These case studies cover some central aspects of the European electricity market, most importantly capacity remuneration mechanisms, the interaction of day-ahead market and congestion management, and the role of regulation for residential self-consumption.
Results of the case studies confirm that by designing the regulatory framework, policymakers and regulators can substantially affect quantity, composition, location, and operation of technologies – both, on the supply side and the demand side. At the same time, changes and amendments to market design are frequent and will continue to be so in the years ahead. Moreover, given the increasing level of market integration in Europe, the role of cross-border effects of national market designs will gain further in importance. In this context, agent-based simulation models are a valuable tool to better understand potential long-term effects of market designs in the interconnected European electricity system and can therefore support the European energy transition
On the role of electricity storage in capacity remuneration mechanisms
In electricity markets around the world, the substantial increase of intermittent renewable electricity generation has intensified concerns about generation adequacy, ultimately driving the implementation of capacity remuneration mechanisms. Although formally technology-neutral, substantial barriers often exist in these mechanisms for non-conventional capacity such as electricity storage. In this article, we provide a rigorous theoretical discussion on design parameters and show that the concrete design of a capacity remuneration mechanism always creates a bias towards one technology or the other. In particular, we can identify the bundling of capacity auctions with call options and the definition of the storage capacity credit as essential drivers affecting the future technology mix as well as generation adequacy. In order to illustrate and confirm our theoretical findings, we apply an agent-based electricity market model and run a number of simulations. Our results show that electricity storage has a capacity value and should therefore be allowed to participate in any capacity remuneration mechanism. Moreover, we find the implementation of a capacity remuneration mechanism with call options and a strike price to increase the competitiveness of storages against conventional power plants. However, determining the amount of firm capacity an electricity storage unit can provide remains a challenging task
Assessment of least-cost pathways for decarbonising Europe\u27s power supply : a model-based long-term scenario analysis accounting for the characteristics of renewable energies
This work analyses technological least-cost pathways for deep emission reductions in the European power sector. It seeks a better understanding of the role renewable energies play in the transformation process up to 2050. Therefore, a model is developed which optimises capacity expansion and hourly dispatch of both conventional and renewable power generation, transmission grids and storage facilities in all hours of the analysed years. The model is applied to four long-term scenarios
Documentação da lógica de modelos de simulação por meio do uso da técnica de modelagem IDEF-SIM.
A gestão do conhecimento aplicada em projetos de simulação é de grande importância, uma vez que ela possibilita a retenção do conhecimento, podendo este ser repassado para outras pessoas e até mesmo utilizado em projetos futuros. Dessa forma, é necessário registrar as lógicas de programação utilizadas em modelos computacionais. Assim, o objetivo desse trabalho é verificar a aplicabilidade da técnica de modelagem IDEF-SIM no registro de lógicas de programação de modelos de Simulação a Eventos Discretos. Essa aplicabilidade será analisada, incluindo, se for necessário, alterações na técnica para aperfeiçoá-la. Para isso, primeiramente foi realizada uma revisão sistemática da literatura com a finalidade de verificar como a técnica IDEF-SIM está sendo utilizada, identificando as principais lacunas. Também foram definindos os parâmetros para a pesquisa, como a técnica utilizada e os softwares para a construção dos modelos computacionais. Logo em seguida, através do método de pesquisa-ação, foram selecionados três modelos simulados no software ProModel®. A cada ciclo da pesquisa-ação, um modelo foi reproduzido, sendo cada um deles convertidos para o IDEF-SIM com as suas lógicas de programação e depois reproduzido no software FlexSim®. Os softwares ProModel® e FlexSim® foram escolhidos devido à diferença existente em relação à programação dos mesmos. O grau de dificuldade e inserção de elementos foram aumentando em cada ciclo da pesquisa-ação. As análises e conclusões de cada ciclo foram feitas por testes estatísticos, uma vez que os modelos foram programados por dois diferentes especialistas. Ao final de cada seção, melhorias propostas no IDEF-SIM foram identificadas para o próximo ciclo. Para a confirmação da pesquisa, um processo hipotético foi construído e aplicado em uma sala de aula, onde os alunos estavam aprendendo Simulação a Eventos Discretos. Após a programação, um questionário foi aplicado para medir a aplicabilidade da técnica. Depois dos testes, uma alteração no método de modelagem e simulação de Montevechi et al. (2010) foi proposta. Através dos ciclos de pesquisa-ação e do questionário respondido, pode-se afirmar que a técnica de fato consegue reproduzir a programação da lógica do modelo computacional, de forma clara e sem gerar confusões, contribuindo para a gestão do conhecimento em projetos de simulação