Agent Behavior Prediction and Its Generalization Analysis

Machine learning algorithms have been applied to predict agent behaviors in real-world dynamic systems, such as advertiser behaviors in sponsored search and worker behaviors in crowdsourcing. The behavior data in these systems are generated by live agents: once the systems change due to the adoption of the prediction models learnt from the behavior data, agents will observe and respond to these changes by changing their own behaviors accordingly. As a result, the behavior data will evolve and will not be identically and independently distributed, posing great challenges to the theoretical analysis on the machine learning algorithms for behavior prediction. To tackle this challenge, in this paper, we propose to use Markov Chain in Random Environments (MCRE) to describe the behavior data, and perform generalization analysis of the machine learning algorithms on its basis. Since the one-step transition probability matrix of MCRE depends on both previous states and the random environment, conventional techniques for generalization analysis cannot be directly applied. To address this issue, we propose a novel technique that transforms the original MCRE into a higher-dimensional time-homogeneous Markov chain. The new Markov chain involves more variables but is more regular, and thus easier to deal with. We prove the convergence of the new Markov chain when time approaches infinity. Then we prove a generalization bound for the machine learning algorithms on the behavior data generated by the new Markov chain, which depends on both the Markovian parameters and the covering number of the function class compounded by the loss function for behavior prediction and the behavior prediction model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that performs the generalization analysis on data generated by complex processes in real-world dynamic systems

Exploring the Limitations of Behavior Cloning for Autonomous Driving

Driving requires reacting to a wide variety of complex environment conditions and agent behaviors. Explicitly modeling each possible scenario is unrealistic. In contrast, imitation learning can, in theory, leverage data from large fleets of human-driven cars. Behavior cloning in particular has been successfully used to learn simple visuomotor policies end-to-end, but scaling to the full spectrum of driving behaviors remains an unsolved problem. In this paper, we propose a new benchmark to experimentally investigate the scalability and limitations of behavior cloning. We show that behavior cloning leads to state-of-the-art results, including in unseen environments, executing complex lateral and longitudinal maneuvers without these reactions being explicitly programmed. However, we confirm well-known limitations (due to dataset bias and overfitting), new generalization issues (due to dynamic objects and the lack of a causal model), and training instability requiring further research before behavior cloning can graduate to real-world driving. The code of the studied behavior cloning approaches can be found at https://github.com/felipecode/coiltraine

Natural Language Does Not Emerge 'Naturally' in Multi-Agent Dialog

A number of recent works have proposed techniques for end-to-end learning of communication protocols among cooperative multi-agent populations, and have simultaneously found the emergence of grounded human-interpretable language in the protocols developed by the agents, all learned without any human supervision! In this paper, using a Task and Tell reference game between two agents as a testbed, we present a sequence of 'negative' results culminating in a 'positive' one -- showing that while most agent-invented languages are effective (i.e. achieve near-perfect task rewards), they are decidedly not interpretable or compositional. In essence, we find that natural language does not emerge 'naturally', despite the semblance of ease of natural-language-emergence that one may gather from recent literature. We discuss how it is possible to coax the invented languages to become more and more human-like and compositional by increasing restrictions on how two agents may communicate.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables, accepted at EMNLP 2017 as short pape

CompILE: Compositional Imitation Learning and Execution

We introduce Compositional Imitation Learning and Execution (CompILE): a framework for learning reusable, variable-length segments of hierarchically-structured behavior from demonstration data. CompILE uses a novel unsupervised, fully-differentiable sequence segmentation module to learn latent encodings of sequential data that can be re-composed and executed to perform new tasks. Once trained, our model generalizes to sequences of longer length and from environment instances not seen during training. We evaluate CompILE in a challenging 2D multi-task environment and a continuous control task, and show that it can find correct task boundaries and event encodings in an unsupervised manner. Latent codes and associated behavior policies discovered by CompILE can be used by a hierarchical agent, where the high-level policy selects actions in the latent code space, and the low-level, task-specific policies are simply the learned decoders. We found that our CompILE-based agent could learn given only sparse rewards, where agents without task-specific policies struggle.Comment: ICML (2019

Learning Mazes with Aliasing States: An LCS Algorithm with Associative Perception

Learning classifier systems (LCSs) belong to a class of algorithms based on the principle of self-organization and have frequently been applied to the task of solving mazes, an important type of reinforcement learning (RL) problem. Maze problems represent a simplified virtual model of real environments that can be used for developing core algorithms of many real-world applications related to the problem of navigation. However, the best achievements of LCSs in maze problems are still mostly bounded to non-aliasing environments, while LCS complexity seems to obstruct a proper analysis of the reasons of failure. We construct a new LCS agent that has a simpler and more transparent performance mechanism, but that can still solve mazes better than existing algorithms. We use the structure of a predictive LCS model, strip out the evolutionary mechanism, simplify the reinforcement learning procedure and equip the agent with the ability of associative perception, adopted from psychology. To improve our understanding of the nature and structure of maze environments, we analyze mazes used in research for the last two decades, introduce a set of maze complexity characteristics, and develop a set of new maze environments. We then run our new LCS with associative perception through the old and new aliasing mazes, which represent partially observable Markov decision problems (POMDP) and demonstrate that it performs at least as well as, and in some cases better than, other published systems

Intrinsic Motivation Systems for Autonomous Mental Development

Exploratory activities seem to be intrinsically rewarding for children and crucial for their cognitive development. Can a machine be endowed with such an intrinsic motivation system? This is the question we study in this paper, presenting a number of computational systems that try to capture this drive towards novel or curious situations. After discussing related research coming from developmental psychology, neuroscience, developmental robotics, and active learning, this paper presents the mechanism of Intelligent Adaptive Curiosity, an intrinsic motivation system which pushes a robot towards situations in which it maximizes its learning progress. This drive makes the robot focus on situations which are neither too predictable nor too unpredictable, thus permitting autonomous mental development.The complexity of the robot’s activities autonomously increases and complex developmental sequences self-organize without being constructed in a supervised manner. Two experiments are presented illustrating the stage-like organization emerging with this mechanism. In one of them, a physical robot is placed on a baby play mat with objects that it can learn to manipulate. Experimental results show that the robot first spends time in situations which are easy to learn, then shifts its attention progressively to situations of increasing difficulty, avoiding situations in which nothing can be learned. Finally, these various results are discussed in relation to more complex forms of behavioral organization and data coming from developmental psychology. Key words: Active learning, autonomy, behavior, complexity, curiosity, development, developmental trajectory, epigenetic robotics, intrinsic motivation, learning, reinforcement learning, values

Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page