6,640 research outputs found

    Computational modelling with uncertainty of frequent users of e-commerce in Spain using an age-group dynamic nonlinear model with varying size population

    Full text link
    [EN] Electronic commerce (EC) has numerous advantages. It allows saving time when we purchase an item, offers the possibility of review without depending on the schedules of traditional stores, access to a wider variety and quantity of articles, in many cases, with lower prices, etc. Based upon mathematical epidemiology tenets strongly related to social behavior able to describe the influence of peers, in this paper we propose an age-group dynamic model with population varying size based on a system of difference equations to study the evolution of the frequent users of EC over time in Spain. Using data from surveys retrieved from the Spanish National Statistics Institute, we use and design computational algorithms to perform a probabilistic estimation of the model parameters that allow the model output to capture the data uncertainty. Then, we will be able to perform a precise prediction with uncertainty.This work has been partially supported by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad grant MTM2017-89664-P and by the European Union through the Operational Program of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)/European Social Fund (ESF) of the Valencian Community 2014-2020, grants GJIDI/2018/A/009 and GJIDI/2018/A/010.Burgos-Simon, C.; Cortés, J.; Martínez-Rodríguez, D.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2019). Computational modelling with uncertainty of frequent users of e-commerce in Spain using an age-group dynamic nonlinear model with varying size population. Advances in Complex Systems. 22(4):1950009-1-1950009-17. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525919500097S1950009-11950009-17224Bettencourt, L. (1997). Customer voluntary performance: Customers as partners in service delivery. Journal of Retailing, 73(3), 383-406. doi:10.1016/s0022-4359(97)90024-5Brauer, F., & Castillo-Chávez, C. (2001). Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemiology. Texts in Applied Mathematics. doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3516-1Cortés, J.-C., Lombana, I.-C., & Villanueva, R.-J. (2010). Age-structured mathematical modeling approach to short-term diffusion of electronic commerce in Spain. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 52(7-8), 1045-1051. doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2010.02.030Hethcote, H. W. (2000). The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases. SIAM Review, 42(4), 599-653. doi:10.1137/s0036144500371907Yanhui, L., & Siming, Z. (2007). Competitive dynamics of e-commerce web sites. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 31(5), 912-919. doi:10.1016/j.apm.2006.03.029Mahajan, V., Muller, E., & Bass, F. M. (1991). New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research. Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior, 125-177. doi:10.1007/978-3-662-02700-4_6Turban, E., Outland, J., King, D., Lee, J. K., Liang, T.-P., & Turban, D. C. (2018). Electronic Commerce 2018. Springer Texts in Business and Economics. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-58715-

    The dynamics over the next few years of the Spanish mobile telecommunications market share: a mathematical modelling approach

    Full text link
    This is an author's accepted manuscript of an article published in: “Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems: Methods, Tools and Applications in Engineering and Related Sciences"; Volume 20, Issue 6, 2014; copyright Taylor & Francis; available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13873954.2013.843572Taking into account available data from 2002 to 2009 about the market share percentages of the Spanish mobile telecommunications service providers, a dynamic diffusion model to study the evolution of the clients’ change between the different companies during the period 2010–2016 is proposed. The constructed model provides a tool for forecasting short-term trends about the customers’ preferences with respect to mobile network operators taking into account both, autonomous decisions due to direct marketing and advertising strategies, and also decisions adopted through interaction via social influence. The model can provide insights to companies for designing strategies in order to gain market share.This work has been partially supported by the FIS PI-10/01433; the Spanish Government and European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) [grant number MTM2009-08587]; and the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia [grant number PAID06-11-2070].Cervelló Royo, RE.; Cortés, J.; Santonja, F.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2014). The dynamics over the next few years of the Spanish mobile telecommunications market share: a mathematical modelling approach. Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems. 20(6):557-565. https://doi.org/10.1080/13873954.2013.843572S557565206Gruber, H. (1999). An investment view of mobile telecommunications in the European Union. Telecommunications Policy, 23(7-8), 521-538. doi:10.1016/s0308-5961(99)00042-7Cortés, J.-C., Lombana, I.-C., & Villanueva, R.-J. (2010). Age-structured mathematical modeling approach to short-term diffusion of electronic commerce in Spain. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 52(7-8), 1045-1051. doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2010.02.030Gruber, H. (2001). Competition and innovation. Information Economics and Policy, 13(1), 19-34. doi:10.1016/s0167-6245(00)00028-7Gruber, H., & Verboven, F. (2001). The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in the European Union. European Economic Review, 45(3), 577-588. doi:10.1016/s0014-2921(00)00068-4Bettencourt, L. (1997). Customer voluntary performance: Customers as partners in service delivery. Journal of Retailing, 73(3), 383-406. doi:10.1016/s0022-4359(97)90024-5Herrera-González, F., & Castejón-Martín, L. (2009). The endless need for regulation in telecommunication: An explanation. Telecommunications Policy, 33(10-11), 664-675. doi:10.1016/j.telpol.2009.07.001Santonja, F.-J., Morales, A., Villanueva, R.-J., & Cortés, J.-C. (2012). Analysing the effect of public health campaigns on reducing excess weight: A modelling approach for the Spanish Autonomous Region of the Community of Valencia. Evaluation and Program Planning, 35(1), 34-39. doi:10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2011.06.00

    A nonlinear dynamic age-structured model of e-commerce in Spain: Stability analysis of the equilibrium by delay and stochastic perturbations

    Full text link
    [EN] First, we propose a deterministic age-structured epidemiological model to study the diffusion of e-commerce in Spain. Afterwards, we determine the parameters (death, birth and growth rates) of the underlying demographic model as well as the parameters (transmission of the use of e-commerce rates) of the proposed epidemiological model that best fit real data retrieved from the Spanish National Statistical Institute. Motivated by the two following facts: first the dynamics of acquiring the use of a new technology as e-commerce is mainly driven by the feedback after interacting with our peers (family, friends, mates, mass media, etc.), hence having a certain delay, and second the inherent uncertainty of sampled real data and the social complexity of the phenomena under analysis, we introduce aftereffect and stochastic perturbations in the initial deterministic model. This leads to a delayed stochastic model for e-commerce. We then investigate sufficient conditions in order to guarantee the stability in probability of the equilibrium point of the dynamic e-commerce delayed stochastic model. Our theoretical findings are numerically illustrated using real data. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.This work has been partially supported by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad grant MTM2017-89664-P.Burgos-Simon, C.; Cortés, J.; Shaikhet, L.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2018). A nonlinear dynamic age-structured model of e-commerce in Spain: Stability analysis of the equilibrium by delay and stochastic perturbations. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation. 64:149-158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2018.04.022S1491586

    The Role of Gender and Education in Peer-to-peer Lending Activities: Evidence from a European Cross-country Study

    Get PDF
    The wide use of peer-to-peer lending platforms coupled with the Fintech global race has emphasized the role of social lending activities and their impact on consumers in recent years. Starting from the publicly available Bondora database, we analyse determinants of loan default during the 2013-2021 period by studying individual economic and social factors of borrowers. We apply a Logit model to estimate the ex-post probability of default on both original variables provided by the database and factors obtained by Principal Component Analysis. Results show the fundamental role of borrowers’ education in reducing the probability of default, as with financial awareness obtained by loan characteristics. In addition, gender plays an important role in determining loan default, with a particular focus on women's conditions within the family. Regarding financial inclusion and its social implications, our findings suggest different ways to improve financial literacy and promote peer-to-peer lending

    The Role of Gender and Education in Peer-to-peer Lending Activities: Evidence from a European Cross-country Study

    Get PDF
    The wide use of peer-to-peer lending platforms coupled with the Fintech global race has emphasized the role of social lending activities and their impact on consumers in recent years. Starting from the publicly available Bondora database, we analyse determinants of loan default during the 2013-2021 period by studying individual economic and social factors of borrowers. We apply a Logit model to estimate the ex-post probability of default on both original variables provided by the database and factors obtained by Principal Component Analysis. Results show the fundamental role of borrowers’ education in reducing the probability of default, as with financial awareness obtained by loan characteristics. In addition, gender plays an important role in determining loan default, with a particular focus on women's conditions within the family. Regarding financial inclusion and its social implications, our findings suggest different ways to improve financial literacy and promote peer-to-peer lending

    Revista Economica

    Get PDF

    Semantic discovery and reuse of business process patterns

    Get PDF
    Patterns currently play an important role in modern information systems (IS) development and their use has mainly been restricted to the design and implementation phases of the development lifecycle. Given the increasing significance of business modelling in IS development, patterns have the potential of providing a viable solution for promoting reusability of recurrent generalized models in the very early stages of development. As a statement of research-in-progress this paper focuses on business process patterns and proposes an initial methodological framework for the discovery and reuse of business process patterns within the IS development lifecycle. The framework borrows ideas from the domain engineering literature and proposes the use of semantics to drive both the discovery of patterns as well as their reuse

    IFIP TC 13 Seminar: trends in HCI proceedings, March 26, 2007, Salamanca (Spain)

    Get PDF
    Actas del 13o. Seminario de la International Federation for Information Processing (IFIP), celebrado en Salamanca el 26 de marzo de 2007, sobre las nuevas líneas de investigación en la interacción hombre-máquina, gestión del conocimiento y enseñanza por la Web
    corecore