Click-through rate prediction : a comparative study of ensemble techniques in real-time bidding

Dissertation presented as a partial requirement for obtaining the Master’s degree in Information Management, with a specialization in Business Intelligence and Knowledge ManagementReal-Time Bidding is an automated mechanism to buy and sell ads in real time that uses data collected from internet users, to accurately deliver the right audience to the best-matched advertisers. It goes beyond contextual advertising by motivating the bidding focused on user data and also, it is different from the sponsored search auction where the bid price is associated with keywords. There is extensive literature regarding the classification and prediction of performance metrics such as click-through-rate, impression rate and bidding price. However, there is limited research on the application of advanced machine learning techniques, such as ensemble methods, on predicting click-through rate of real-time bidding campaigns. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of predicting click-through rate in real-time bidding campaigns by comparing the classification results from six traditional classification models (Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Regression, Regularised Regression, Decision trees, k-nearest neighbors and Support Vector Machines) with two popular ensemble learning techniques (Voting and BootStrap Aggregation). The goal of our research is to determine whether ensemble methods can accurately predict click-through rate and compared to standard classifiers. Results showed that ensemble techniques outperformed simple classifiers performance. Moreover, also, highlights the excellent performance of linear algorithms (Linear Discriminant Analysis and Regularized Regression)

Imbalanced data classification and its application in cyber security

Cyber security, also known as information technology security or simply as information security, aims to protect government organizations, companies and individuals by defending their computers, servers, electronic systems, networks, and data from malicious attacks. With the advancement of client-side on the fly web content generation techniques, it becomes easier for attackers to modify the content of a website dynamically and gain access to valuable information. The impact of cybercrime to the global economy is now more than ever, and it is growing day by day. Among various types of cybercrimes, financial attacks are widely spread and the financial sector is among most targeted. Both corporations and individuals are losing a huge amount of money each year. The majority portion of financial attacks is carried out by banking malware and web-based attacks. The end users are not always skilled enough to differentiate between injected content and actual contents of a webpage. Designing a real-time security system for ensuring a safe browsing experience is a challenging task. Some of the existing solutions are designed for client side and all the users have to install it in their system, which is very difficult to implement. In addition, various platforms and tools are used by organizations and individuals, therefore, different solutions are needed to be designed. The existing server-side solution often focuses on sanitizing and filtering the inputs. It will fail to detect obfuscated and hidden scripts. This is a realtime security system and any significant delay will hamper user experience. Therefore, finding the most optimized and efficient solution is very important. To ensure an easy installation and integration capabilities of any solution with the existing system is also a critical factor to consider. If the solution is efficient but difficult to integrate, then it may not be a feasible solution for practical use. Unsupervised and supervised data classification techniques have been widely applied to design algorithms for solving cyber security problems. The performance of these algorithms varies depending on types of cyber security problems and size of datasets. To date, existing algorithms do not achieve high accuracy in detecting malware activities. Datasets in cyber security and, especially those from financial sectors, are predominantly imbalanced datasets as the number of malware activities is significantly less than the number of normal activities. This means that classifiers for imbalanced datasets can be used to develop supervised data classification algorithms to detect malware activities. Development of classifiers for imbalanced data sets has been subject of research over the last decade. Most of these classifiers are based on oversampling and undersampling techniques and are not efficient in many situations as such techniques are applied globally. In this thesis, we develop two new algorithms for solving supervised data classification problems in imbalanced datasets and then apply them to solve malware detection problems. The first algorithm is designed using the piecewise linear classifiers by formulating this problem as an optimization problem and by applying the penalty function method. More specifically, we add more penalty to the objective function for misclassified points from minority classes. The second method is based on the combination of the supervised and unsupervised (clustering) algorithms. Such an approach allows one to identify areas in the input space where minority classes are located and to apply local oversampling or undersampling. This approach leads to the design of more efficient and accurate classifiers. The proposed algorithms are tested using real-world datasets. Results clearly demonstrate superiority of newly introduced algorithms. Then we apply these algorithms to design classifiers to detect malwares.Doctor of Philosoph

Reduction of False Positives in Intrusion Detection Based on Extreme Learning Machine with Situation Awareness

Protecting computer networks from intrusions is more important than ever for our privacy, economy, and national security. Seemingly a month does not pass without news of a major data breach involving sensitive personal identity, financial, medical, trade secret, or national security data. Democratic processes can now be potentially compromised through breaches of electronic voting systems. As ever more devices, including medical machines, automobiles, and control systems for critical infrastructure are increasingly networked, human life is also more at risk from cyber-attacks. Research into Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) began several decades ago and IDSs are still a mainstay of computer and network protection and continue to evolve. However, detecting previously unseen, or zero-day, threats is still an elusive goal. Many commercial IDS deployments still use misuse detection based on known threat signatures. Systems utilizing anomaly detection have shown great promise to detect previously unseen threats in academic research. But their success has been limited in large part due to the excessive number of false positives that they produce. This research demonstrates that false positives can be better minimized, while maintaining detection accuracy, by combining Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Hidden Markov Models (HMM) as classifiers within the context of a situation awareness framework. This research was performed using the University of New South Wales - Network Based 2015 (UNSW-NB15) data set which is more representative of contemporary cyber-attack and normal network traffic than older data sets typically used in IDS research. It is shown that this approach provides better results than either HMM or ELM alone and with a lower False Positive Rate (FPR) than other comparable approaches that also used the UNSW-NB15 data set

Multi-level analysis of Malware using Machine Learning

Multi-level analysis of Malware using Machine Learnin

Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Computing

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a subject garnering increasing attention in both academia and the industry today. The understanding is that AI-enhanced methods and techniques create a variety of opportunities related to improving basic and advanced business functions, including production processes, logistics, financial management and others. As this collection demonstrates, AI-enhanced tools and methods tend to offer more precise results in the fields of engineering, financial accounting, tourism, air-pollution management and many more. The objective of this collection is to bring these topics together to offer the reader a useful primer on how AI-enhanced tools and applications can be of use in today’s world. In the context of the frequently fearful, skeptical and emotion-laden debates on AI and its value added, this volume promotes a positive perspective on AI and its impact on society. AI is a part of a broader ecosystem of sophisticated tools, techniques and technologies, and therefore, it is not immune to developments in that ecosystem. It is thus imperative that inter- and multidisciplinary research on AI and its ecosystem is encouraged. This collection contributes to that

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice

Advertisement Click-Through Rate Prediction Based on the Weighted-ELM and Adaboost Algorithm

Accurate click-through rate (CTR) prediction can not only improve the advertisement company’s reputation and revenue, but also help the advertisers to optimize the advertising performance. There are two main unsolved problems of the CTR prediction: low prediction accuracy due to the imbalanced distribution of the advertising data and the lack of the real-time advertisement bidding implementation. In this paper, we will develop a novel online CTR prediction approach by incorporating the real-time bidding (RTB) advertising by the following strategies: user profile system is constructed from the historical data of the RTB advertising to describe the user features, the historical CTR features, the ID features, and the other numerical features. A novel CTR prediction approach is presented to address the imbalanced learning sample distribution by integrating the Weighted-ELM (WELM) and the Adaboost algorithm. Compared to the commonly used algorithms, the proposed approach can improve the CTR significantly

Advances in knowledge discovery and data mining Part II

19th Pacific-Asia Conference, PAKDD 2015, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, May 19-22, 2015, Proceedings, Part II</p

XXV Congreso Argentino de Ciencias de la Computación - CACIC 2019: libro de actas

Trabajos presentados en el XXV Congreso Argentino de Ciencias de la Computación (CACIC), celebrado en la ciudad de Río Cuarto los días 14 al 18 de octubre de 2019 organizado por la Red de Universidades con Carreras en Informática (RedUNCI) y Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físico-Químicas y Naturales - Universidad Nacional de Río CuartoRed de Universidades con Carreras en Informátic