COUNTER-UXS ENERGY AND OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS

At present, there exists a prioritization of identifying novel and innovative approaches to managing the small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) threat. The near-future sUAS threat to U.S. forces and infrastructure indicates that current Counter-UAS (C-UAS) capabilities and tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) need to evolve to pace the threat. An alternative approach utilizes a networked squadron of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) designed for sUAS threat interdiction. This approach leverages high performance and Size, Weight, and Power (SWaP) conformance to create less expensive, but more capable, C-UAS devices to augment existing capabilities. This capstone report documents efforts to develop C-UAS technologies to reduce energy consumption and collaterally disruptive signal footprint while maintaining operational effectiveness. This project utilized Model Based System Engineering (MBSE) techniques to explore and assess these technologies within a mission context. A Concept of Operations was developed to provide the C-UAS Operational Concept. Operational analysis led to development of operational scenarios to define the System of Systems (SoS) concept, operating conditions, and required system capabilities. Resource architecture was developed to define the functional behaviors and system performance characteristics for C-UAS technologies. Lastly, a modeling and simulation (M&S) tool was developed to evaluate mission scenarios for C-UAS.Outstanding ThesisCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Wargames as Data: Addressing the Wargamer's Trilemma

Policymakers often want the very best data with which to make decisions--particularly when concerned with questions of national and international security. But what happens when this data is not available? In those instances, analysts have come to rely on synthetic data-generating processes--turning to modeling and simulation tools and survey experiments among other methods. In the cyber domain, where empirical data at the strategic level are limited, this is no different--cyber wargames are quickly becoming a principal method for both exploring and analyzing the security challenges posed by state and non-state actors in cyberspace. In this chapter, we examine the design decisions associated with this method.Comment: 3 figure

DEFINING A CYBER OPERATIONS PERFORMANCE FRAMEWORK VIA COMPUTATIONAL MODELING

Cyber operations are influenced by a wide range of environmental characteristics, strategic policies, organizational procedures, complex networks, and the individuals who attack and defend these cyber battlegrounds. While no two cyber operations are identical, leveraging the power of computational modeling will enable decision-makers to understand and evaluate the effect of these influences prior to their impact on mission success. Given the complexity of these influences, this research proposes an agent-based modeling framework that will result in an operational performance dashboard for user analysis. To account for cyber team behavioral characteristics, this research includes the development and validation of the Cyber Operations Self-Efficacy Scales (COSES). The underlying statistics, algorithms, research instruments, and equations to support the overall framework are provided. This research represents the most comprehensive cyber operations agent-based performance analysis tools published to date

Simulation for Cybersecurity: State of the Art and Future Directions

In this article, we provide an introduction to simulation for cybersecurity and focus on three themes: (1) an overview of the cybersecurity domain; (2) a summary of notable simulation research efforts for cybersecurity; and (3) a proposed way forward on how simulations could broaden cybersecurity efforts. The overview of cybersecurity provides readers with a foundational perspective of cybersecurity in the light of targets, threats, and preventive measures. The simulation research section details the current role that simulation plays in cybersecurity, which mainly falls on representative environment building; test, evaluate, and explore; training and exercises; risk analysis and assessment; and humans in cybersecurity research. The proposed way forward section posits that the advancement of collecting and accessing sociotechnological data to inform models, the creation of new theoretical constructs, and the integration and improvement of behavioral models are needed to advance cybersecurity efforts

U.S. AND PRC STRATEGIC COMPETITION: CYBER AND RISK AVERSION

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) altered its calculations from the aftermath of the 1990 Persian Gulf war and placed emphasis on the importance of technology and information. The PRC created the Strategic Support Force (SSF), which became operational in 2015, and includes space, cyber, and electronic warfare capabilities under one command. Meanwhile, the U.S. has wrapped itself in structural and cultural limitations, which hinder operational tempo. This thesis examined how the Department of Defense can adjust its positions on Cyber Titles, authorities, permissions, and risk aversion in leadership to maintain a competitive edge against the threat of the PRC’s SSF in the cyber domain. This thesis used system dynamics to model the economies of both the U.S. and the PRC into cyber capabilities, which resulted in an understanding that allocating additional money alone will not solve the core issue. Understanding the limitations of cultural biases, and using decision-making tools such as prospect theory, leaders can make more effective decisions. Through proper education of staff officers about cyber capabilities and their effects, integration of cyber operations at combat training centers, and pushing permissions and rules of engagements down to Task Force Commanders, the U.S. can overcome the structural and cultural obstacles.Major, United States ArmyMajor, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Game Theory and Prescriptive Analytics for Naval Wargaming Battle Management Aids

NPS NRP Technical ReportThe Navy is taking advantage of advances in computational technologies and data analytic methods to automate and enhance tactical decisions and support warfighters in highly complex combat environments. Novel automated techniques offer opportunities to support the tactical warfighter through enhanced situational awareness, automated reasoning and problem-solving, and faster decision timelines. This study will investigate how game theory and prescriptive analytics methods can be used to develop real-time wargaming capabilities to support warfighters in their ability to explore and evaluate the possible consequences of different tactical COAs to improve tactical missions. This study will develop a conceptual design of a real-time tactical wargaming capability. This study will explore data analytic methods including game theory, prescriptive analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) to evaluate their potential to support real-time wargaming.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.