Divergent Effects of Factors on Crash Severity under Autonomous and Conventional Driving Modes Using a Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

Influencing factors on crash severity involved with autonomous vehicles (AVs) have been paid increasing attention. However, there is a lack of comparative analyses of those factors between AVs and human-driven vehicles. To fill this research gap, the study aims to explore the divergent effects of factors on crash severity under autonomous and conventional (i.e., human-driven) driving modes. This study obtained 180 publicly available autonomous vehicle crash data, and 39 explanatory variables were extracted from three categories, including environment, roads, and vehicles. Then, a hierarchical Bayesian approach was applied to analyze the impacting factors on crash severity (i.e., injury or no injury) under both driving modes with considering unobserved heterogeneities. The results showed that some influencing factors affected both driving modes, but their degrees were different. For example, daily visitors\u27 flowrate had a greater impact on the crash severity under the conventional driving mode. More influencing factors only had significant impacts on one of the driving modes. For example, in the autonomous driving mode, mixed land use increased the severity of crashes, while daytime had the opposite effects. This study could contribute to specifying more appropriate policies to reduce the crash severity of both autonomous and human-driven vehicles especially in mixed traffic conditions

A Learning-based Stochastic MPC Design for Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control to Handle Interfering Vehicles

Vehicle to Vehicle (V2V) communication has a great potential to improve reaction accuracy of different driver assistance systems in critical driving situations. Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC), which is an automated application, provides drivers with extra benefits such as traffic throughput maximization and collision avoidance. CACC systems must be designed in a way that are sufficiently robust against all special maneuvers such as cutting-into the CACC platoons by interfering vehicles or hard braking by leading cars. To address this problem, a Neural- Network (NN)-based cut-in detection and trajectory prediction scheme is proposed in the first part of this paper. Next, a probabilistic framework is developed in which the cut-in probability is calculated based on the output of the mentioned cut-in prediction block. Finally, a specific Stochastic Model Predictive Controller (SMPC) is designed which incorporates this cut-in probability to enhance its reaction against the detected dangerous cut-in maneuver. The overall system is implemented and its performance is evaluated using realistic driving scenarios from Safety Pilot Model Deployment (SPMD).Comment: 10 pages, Submitted as a journal paper at T-I

Optimisation of speed camera locations using genetic algorithm and pattern search

Road traffic accidents continue to be a public health problem and are a global issue due to the huge financial burden they place on families and society as a whole. Speed has been identified as a major contributor to the severity of traffic accidents and there is the need for better speed management if road traffic accidents are to be reduced. Over the years various measures have been implemented to manage vehicle speeds. The use of speed cameras and vehicle activated signs in recent times has contributed to the reduction of vehicle speeds to various extents. Speed cameras use punitive measures whereas vehicle activated signs do not so their use depends on various factors. Engineers, planners and decision makers responsible for determining the best place to mount a speed camera or vehicle activated sign along a road have based their decision on experience, site characteristics and available guidelines (Department for Transport, 2007; Department for Transport, 2006; Department for Transport, 2003). These decisions can be subjective and indications are that a more formal and directed approach aimed at bringing these available guidelines together in a model will be beneficial in making the right decision as to where to place a speed camera or vehicle activated sign is to be made. The use of optimisation techniques have been applied in other areas of research but this has been clearly absent in the Transport Safety sector. This research aims to contribute to speed reduction by developing a model to help decision makers determine the optimum location for a speed control device. In order to achieve this, the first study involved the development of an Empirical Bayes Negative Binomial regression accident prediction model to predict the number of fatal and serious accidents combined and the number of slight accidents. The accident prediction model that was used explored the effect of certain geometric and traffic characteristics on the effect of the severity of road traffic accident numbers on selected A-roads within the Nottinghamshire and Leicestershire regions of United Kingdom. On A-roads some model variables (n=10) were found to be statistically significant for slight accidents and (n=6) for fatal and serious accidents. The next study used the accident prediction model developed in two optimisation techniques to help predict the optimal location for speed cameras or vehicle activated signs. Pattern Search and Genetic Algorithms were the two main types of optimisation techniques utilised in this thesis. The results show that the two methods did produce similar results in some instances but different in others. Optimised results were compared to some existing sites with speed cameras some of the results obtained from the optimisation techniques used were within proximity of about 160m. A validation method was applied to the genetic algorithm and pattern search optimisation methods. The pattern search method was found to be more consistent than the genetic algorithm method. Genetic algorithm results produced slightly different results at validation in comparison with the initial results. T-test results show a significant difference in the function values for the validated genetic algorithm (M= 607649.34, SD= 1055520.75) and the validated pattern search function values (M= 2.06, SD= 1.17) under the condition t (79) = 5.15, p=0.000. There is a role that optimisation techniques can play in helping to determine the optimum location for a speed camera or vehicle activated sign based on a set of objectives and specified constraints. The research findings as a whole show that speed cameras and vehicle activated signs are an effective speed management tool. Their deployment however needs to be carefully considered by engineers, planners and decision makers so as to achieve the required level of effectiveness. The use of optimisation techniques which has been generally absent in the Transport Safety sector has been shown in this thesis to have the potential to contribute to improve speed management. There is however no doubt that this research will stimulate interest in this rather new but high potential area of Transport Safety

Models and Performance of VANET based Emergency Braking

The network research community is working in the field of automotive to provide VANET based safety applications to reduce the number of accidents, deaths, injuries and loss of money. Several approaches are proposed and investigated in VANET literature, but in a completely network-oriented fashion. Most of them do not take into account application requirements and no one considers the dynamics of the vehicles. Moreover, message repropagation schemes are widely proposed without investigating their benefits and using very complicated approaches. This technical report, which is derived from the Master Thesis of Michele Segata, focuses on the Emergency Electronic Brake Lights (EEBL) safety application, meant to send warning messages in the case of an emergency brake, in particular performing a joint analysis of network requirements and provided application level benefits. The EEBL application is integrated within a Collaborative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) which uses network-provided information to automatically brake the car if the driver does not react to the warning. Moreover, an information aggregation scheme is proposed to analyze the benefits of repropagation together with the consequent increase of network load. This protocol is compared to a protocol without repropagation and to a rebroadcast protocol found in the literature (namely the weighted p-persistent rebroadcast). The scenario is a highway stretch in which a platoon of vehicles brake down to a complete stop. Simulations are performed using the NS_3 network simulation in which two mobility models have been embedded. The first one, which is called Intelligent Driver Model (IDM) emulates the behavior of a driver trying to reach a desired speed and braking when approaching vehicles in front. The second one (Minimizing Overall Braking Induced by Lane change (MOBIL)), instead, decides when a vehicle has to change lane in order to perform an overtake or optimize its path. The original simulator has been modified by - introducing real physical limits to naturally reproduce real crashes; - implementing a CACC; - implementing the driver reaction when a warning is received; - implementing different network protocols. The tests are performed in different situations, such as different number of lanes (one to five), different average speeds, different network protocols and different market penetration rates and they show that: - the adoption of this technology considerably decreases car accidents since the overall average maximum deceleration is reduced; - network load depends on application-level details, such as the implementation of the CACC; - VANET safety application can improve safety even with a partial market penetration rate; - message repropagation is important to reduce the risk of accidents when not all vehicles are equipped; - benefits are gained not only by equipped vehicles but also by unequipped ones

A two-stage bivariate logistic-Tobit model for the safety analysis of signalized intersections

Crash frequency and crash severity models have explored the factors that influence intersection safety. However, most of these models address the frequency and severity independently, and miss the correlations between crash frequency models at different crash severity levels. We develop a two-stage bivariate logistic-Tobit model of the crash severity and crash risk at different severity levels. The first stage uses a binary logistic model to determine the overall crash severity level. The second stage develops a bivariate Tobit model to simultaneously evaluate the risk of a crash resulting in a slight injury and the risk of a crash resulting in a kill or serious injury (KSI). The model uses 420 observations from 262 signalized intersections in the Hong Kong metropolitan area, integrated with information on the traffic flow, geometric road design, road environment, traffic control and any crashes that occurred during 2002 and 2003. The results obtained from the first-stage binary logistic model indicate that the overall crash severity level is significantly influenced by the annual average daily traffic and number of pedestrian crossings. The results obtained from the second-stage bivariate Tobit model indicate that the factor that significantly influences the numbers of both slight injury and KSI crashes is the proportion of commercial vehicles. The existence of four or more approaches, the reciprocal of the average turning radius and the presence of a turning pocket increase the likelihood of slight injury crashes. The average lane width and cycle time affect the likelihood of KSI crashes. A comparison with existing approaches suggests that the bivariate logistic-Tobit model provides a good statistical fit and offers an effective alternative method for evaluating the safety performance at signalized intersections.postprin

Road Accident Data Collection Systems in Developing and Developed Countries: A Review

The road accidents trigger major financial loss and casualties to the individual as well as the state as a whole. The intelligent safety systems are developed to provide all road users with a safe transport system. This approach acknowledges the sensitivity of individuals to extreme injury in road accidents and recognizes the need for the system for improvement. To establish a proper system for road accident prevention, records from prior accidents play a key role in the evaluation and prediction of the accident, damage, and consequences. Therefore, this study was performed to evaluate and comparing existing practices in developing and developed countries for collecting road accident data. Moreover, the manual and digital approaches of data collection are highlighted. Keeping this in mind, this review provides an overview of how developing countries currently collect their data and their data dissemination methods to extract such useful information, which could prove beneficial in deciding the road safety programs for the well-being of end-users

Investigative model of rail accident and incident causes using statistical modelling approach

Nowadays, railway transportation becomes a popular choice among commuter as transportation mode to travel from one place to another. Thus, it makes the industry grows faster especially at urban area. The complexity of rail network required high level of safety features to prevent any interruption. For that purpose, this thesis will show a proper procedure on how the prediction model of accident need to be conducted using regression model. From the root cause analysis, the most contributory factor to influence the accident can be identified. “Ishikawa diagram” is a popular tool to identify problem occurring from the root where it begins. Process of identifying required bundles of accident and incident investigation report at least for 5 years and this thesis used data starting from 1999 to 2014. It was taken from several sources on Australian Railways website. Analysis from Ishikawa shows there are ten main factors involved to influences an accident. Those factors are “train driver mistake”, “other’s human mistake”, “weather influence”, “track problem”, “train problem”, “signaling error”, “maintenance error”, “communication error”, “procedure error”, and “others”. Each factor with positive correlation coefficient value to the type of accident and incident were taken as parameter. Then, before completing the prediction model formula, some of hypothesis needs to be tested to know which model among regression model is suitable and give a better prediction result. Dispersion test is a test to calculate dispersion value to know either data is under dispersion for value less than 1 (Poisson model is appropriate) or over dispersion for value more than 1 (Negative binomial is appropriate). Then, Vuong test is applied to measure which model has a better result between those two models. From the hypothesis, this thesis shows that Zero-inflated model is the most fitted model to predict accident and incident cases of collision, derailment and SPAD. In some country, they may have different system of rail and geography, thus it should have different possibilities to influence accident and incident. However, this method and procedure are available to use for them to identify and predict the most influencing factor that contributes to the accident occurrences

INTELLIGENTE TRANSPORT SYSTEMEN ITS EN VERKEERSVEILIGHEID

This report discusses Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). This generic term is used for a broad range of information-, control- and electronic technology that can be integrated in the road infrastructure and the vehicles themselves, saving lives, time and money bymonitoring and managing traffic flows, reducing conges-tion, avoiding accidents, etc. Because this report was written in the scope of the Policy Research Centre Mobility & Public Works, track Traffic Safety, it focuses on ITS systems from the traffic safety point of view. Within the whole range of ITS systems, two categories can be distinguished: autonomous and cooperative systems. Autonomous systems are all forms of ITS which operate by itself, and do not depend on the cooperation with other vehicles or supporting infrastructure. Example applications are blind spot detection using radar, electronic stability control, dynamic traffic management using variable road signs, emergency call, etc. Cooperative systems are ITS systems based on communication and cooperation, both between vehicles as between vehicles and infrastructure. Example applications are alerting vehicles approaching a traffic jam, exchanging data regarding hazardous road conditions, extended electronic brake light, etc. In some cases, autonomous systems can evolve to autonomous cooperative systems. ISA (Intelligent Speed Adaptation) is an example of this: the dynamic aspect as well as communication with infrastructure (eg Traffic lights, Variable Message Sign (VMS)...) can provide additional road safety. This is the clear link between the two parts of this report. The many ITS applications are an indicator of the high expectations from the government, the academic world and the industry regarding the possibilities made possible by both categories of ITS systems. Therefore, the comprehensive discussion of both of them is the core of this report. The first part of the report covering the autonomous systems treats two aspects: 1. Overview of European projects related to mobility and in particular to road safety 2. Overview for guidelines for the evaluation of ITS projects. Out of the wide range of diverse (autonomous) ITS applications a selection is made; this selection is focused on E Safety Forum and PreVENT. Especially the PreVent research project is interesting because ITS-applications have led to a number of concrete demonstration vehicles that showed - in protected and unprotected surroundings- that these ITS-applications are already technically useful or could be developed into useful products. The component “guidelines for the evaluation of ITS projects” outlines that the government has to have specific evaluation tools if the government has the ambition of using ITS-applications for road safety. Two projects -guidelines for the evaluation of ITS projects- are examined; a third evaluation method is only mentioned because this description shows that a specific targeting of the government can be desirable : 1. TRACE describes the guidelines for the evaluation of ITS projects which are useful for the evaluation of specific ITS-applications. 2. FITS contains Finnish guidelines for the evaluation of ITS project; FIS is an adaptation of methods used for evaluation of transport projects. 3. The third evaluation method for the evaluation of ITS projects is developed in an ongoing European research project, eImpact. eImpact is important because, a specific consultation of stake holders shows that the social importance of some techniques is underestimated. These preliminary results show that an appropriate guiding role for the government could be important. In the second part of this document the cooperative systems are discussed in depth. These systems enable a large number of applications with an important social relevance, both on the level of the environment, mobility and traffic safety. Cooperative systems make it possible to warn drivers in time to avoid collisions (e.g. when approaching the tail of a traffic jam, or when a ghost driver is detected). Hazardous road conditions can be automatically communicated to other drivers (e.g. after the detection of black ice or an oil trail by the ESP). Navigation systems can receive detailed real-time up-dates about the current traffic situation and can take this into account when calculating their routes. When a traffic distortion occurs, traffic centers can immediately take action and can actively influence the way that the traffic will be diverted. Drivers can be notified well in advance about approaching emergency vehicles, and can be directed to yield way in a uniform manner. This is just a small selection from the large number of applications that are made possible because of cooperative ITS systems, but it is very obvious that these systems can make a significant positive contribution to traffic safety. In literature it is estimated that the decrease of accidents with injuries of fatalities will be between 20% and 50% . It is not suprising that ITS systems receive a lot of attention for the moment. On an international level, a number of standards are being established regarding this topic. The International Telecommunications Uniont (ITU), Institute for Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), International Organization for Standardization (ISO), Association of Radio Industries and Business (ARIB) and European committee for standardization (CEN) are currently defining standards that describe different aspects of ITS systems. One of the names that is mostly mentioned in literature is the ISO TC204/WG16 Communications Architecture for Land Mobile environment (CALM) standard. It describes a framework that enables transparent (both for the application and the user) continuous communication through different communication media. Besides the innumerable standardization activities, there is a great number of active research projects. On European level, the most important are the i2010 Intelligent Car Initiative, the eSafety Forum, and the COMeSafety, the CVIS, the SAFESPOT, the COOPERS and the SEVECOM project. The i2010 Intelligent Car Initiative is an European initiative with the goal to halve the number of traffic casualties by 2010. The eSafety Forum is an initiative of the European Commission, industry and other stakeholders and targets the acceleration of development and deployment of safety-related ITS systems. The COMeSafety project supports the eSafety Forum on the field of vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communication. In the CVIS project, attention is given to both technical and non-technical issues, with the main goal to develop the first free and open reference implementation of the CALM architecture. The SAFEST project investigates which data is important for safety applications, and with which algorithmsthis data can be extracted from vehicles and infrastructure. The COOPERS project mainly targets communication between vehicles and dedicated roadside infrastructure. Finally, the SEVECOM project researches security and privacy issues. Besides the European projects, research is also conducted in the United States of America (CICAS and VII projects) and in Japan (AHSRA, VICS, Smartway, internetITS). Besides standardization bodies and governmental organizations, also the industry has a considerable interest in ITS systems. In the scope of their ITS activities, a number of companies are united in national and international organizations. On an international level, the best known names are the Car 2 Car Communication Consortium, and Ertico. The C2C CC unites the large European car manufacturers, and focuses on the development of an open standard for vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communications based on the already well established IEEE 802.11 WLAN standard. Ertico is an European multi-sector, public/private partnership with the intended purpose of the development and introduction of ITS systems. On a national level, FlandersDrive and The Telematics Cluster / ITS Belgium are the best known organizations. Despite the worldwide activities regarding (cooperative) ITS systems, there still is no consensus about the wireless technology to be used in such systems. This can be put down to the fact that a large number of suitable technologies exist or are under development. Each technology has its specific advantages and disadvantages, but no single technology is the ideal solution for every ITS application. However, the different candidates can be classified in three distinct categories. The first group contains solutions for Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC), such as the WAVE technology. The second group is made up of several cellular communication networks providing coverage over wide areas. Examples are GPRS (data communication using the GSM network), UMTS (faster then GPRS), WiMAX (even faster then UMTS) and MBWA (similar to WiMAX). The third group consists of digital data broadcast technologies such as RDS (via the current FM radio transmissions, slow), DAB and DMB (via current digital radio transmissions, quicker) and DVB-H (via future digital television transmissions for mobiledevices, quickest). The previous makes it clear that ITS systems are a hot topic right now, and they receive a lot of attention from the academic world, the standardization bodies and the industry. Therefore, it seems like that it is just a matter of time before ITS systems will find their way into the daily live. Due to the large number of suitable technologies for the implementation of cooperative ITS systems, it is very hard to define which role the government has to play in these developments, and which are the next steps to take. These issues were addressed in reports produced by the i2010 Intelligent Car Initiative and the CVIS project. Their state of the art overview revealed that until now, no country has successfully deployed a fully operational ITS system yet. Seven EU countries are the furthest and are already in the deployment phase: Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Finland, Spain and France. These countries are trailed by eight countries which are in the promotion phase: Denmark, Greece, Italy, Austria, Belgium,Norway, the Czech Republic and Poland. Finally, the last ten countries find themselves in the start-up phase: Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Hungary, Portugal, Switzerland, Ireland and Luxembourg. These European reports produced by the i2010 Intelligent Car Initiative and the CVIS project have defined a few policy recommendations which are very relevant for the Belgian and Flemish government. The most important recommendations for the Flemish government are: • Support awareness: research revealed that civilians consider ITS applications useful, but they are not really willing to pay for this technology. Therefore, it is important to convince the general public of the usefulness and the importance of ITS systems. • Fill the gaps: Belgium is situated in the promotion phase. This means that it should focus at identifying the missing stakeholders, and coordinating national and regional ITS activities. Here it is important that the research activities are coordinated in a national and international context to allow transfer of knowledge from one study to the next, as well as the results to be comparable. • Develop a vision: in the scope of ITS systems policies have to be defined regarding a large number of issues. For instance there is the question if ITS users should be educated, meaning that the use of ITS systems should be the subject of the drivers license exam. How will the regulations be for the technical inspection of vehicles equipped with ITS technology? Will ITS systems be deployed on a voluntary base, or will they e.g. be obliged in every new car? Will the services be offered by private companies, by the public authorities, or by a combination of them? Which technology will be used to implement ITS systems? These are just a few of the many questions where the government will have to develop a point of view for. • Policy coordination: ITS systems are a policy subject on an international, national and regional level. It is very important that these policy organizations can collaborate in a coordinated manner. • Iterative approach to policy development: developing policies for this complex matter is not a simple task. This asks for an iterative approach, where policy decisions are continuously refined and adjusted