TSUNAMI INFORMATION SOURCES PART 2

Tsunami Information Sources (Robert L. Wiegel, University of California, Berkeley, CA, UCB/HEL 2005-1, 14 December 2005, 115 pages), is available in printed format, and on a diskette. It is also available in electronic format at the Water Resources Center Archives, University of California, Berkeley, CA http:www.lib.berkeley.edu/WRCA/tsunamis.htmland in the International Journal of The Tsunami Society, Science of Tsunami Hazards (Vol. 24, No. 2, 2006, pp 58-171) at http://www.sthjournal.org/sth6.htm.This is Part 2 of the report. It has two components. They are: 1.(Sections A and B). Sources added since the first report, and corrections to a few listed in the first report. 2.(Sections C and D). References from both the first report and this report, listed in two categories:Section C. Planning and engineering design for tsunami mitigation/protection; adjustments to the hazard; damage to structures and infrastructureSection D. Tsunami propagation nearshore; induced oscillations; runup/inundation (flooding) and drawdown

Defence and development: a case study of the Philippines

In the security spectrum, there is a blurring line between defence and development. In both traditional and non-traditional security situations, such as counterinsurgency and natural disasters, the armed forces has been called to respond in ways other than their mandate of physical protection in order to attend to human development needs. How and when this transition of roles happens has been studied and debated. As the main security institution of a country, militaries around the world have performed duties outside of their defence functions. Their tasks have expanded from maintaining peace and order to including nation-building, economic development, the provision of disaster relief, and engaging in efforts to conserve natural resources. Looking at these extra functions, the Philippines armed forces are no different in performing non-traditional roles. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) is one of the key institutions, which has been at the forefront of the campaign in tackling these domestic challenges. To a certain extent, the mixture of economic activities with combat operations has characterised the military’s different campaigns such as counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency. Involvement in economic functions has been justified on the grounds that it is critical to ‘winning the hearts and minds’ of those living on the front lines, supporting the military’s role in nation-building. The aim of this study is to employ pre-determined metrics to evaluate the contribution of the Philippine defence sector to national development, and, in turn, comprehensive security. Whilst the conventional view is that defence is a burden on development, the question this study poses is whether, by contrast, in the Philippine context, there is a positive relationship between defence and development; that is, that defence expenditure contributes to development outputs such as employment, skill-generation and even infrastructural investment. The study framework is anchored to the following policies: AFP Modernisation Act of 1995, and its subsequent revision, AFP Modernisation Act of 2010, the Internal Peace and Security Plan (IPSP), and the National Security Plan 2011-2016. The framework highlights the important security goals of defence industrialisation, internal security, and non-traditional security. These data were further substantiated and consolidated via archival sources, such as government and company reports, as well as secondary data (e.g. books, journals, etc.). The mission thrusts of the AFP demonstrate the organisation’s multiple objectives to carry out a mandate to protect the state and the people. The Philippines has a very modest defence industry with few companies manufacturing small arms and ammunitions. Its goal is to be self-reliant, however, issues within the Procurement Law prevents this. Meanwhile, the conduct of counter-insurgency efforts through the IPSP allows the AFP unified commands and field units to support government units and agencies in their peace and development programmes. Furthermore, the geographic deployment of military personnel and equipment across the archipelago allows the armed forces to respond in times of disasters. Overall, the armed forces has contributes positively to the national development of the Philippines. To this end, and based on the research finding, a number of important policy recommendations are advanced to raise the effectiveness of the Philippines’ security policies

Economics, politics and ecology of biotechnology in Malaysian agriculture

2014 Summer.Malaysia has been moving from an agricultural, resource extraction, and manufacturing based economy in the 1980s toward a service-oriented, post-industrial, knowledge-based economy, with greater emphasis on skilled human capital, technology, and intangibles. Assessing Malaysia's current economic and policy regimes are crucial to help chart the next course of actions for Malaysia to set its economic goals. The patent landscape analysis showed Malaysia's economy evolution over the past six decades. Primarily dependent on the chemicals and petroleum sector between 1953 and 1985, the economy, currently is dependent on two sectors, i.e., electronics, semiconductors and computing, and chemicals and petroleum. Generally, the commercial sector dominates the patenting activities in Malaysia, in the economy wide patenting arena and also in the agbiotech and agchemicals technologies. High patenting trends by foreign commercial entities is to avoid imitations to their inventions in the Malaysian market attributable to their high FDI investment and export share. Within the agricultural sector, patents in agbiotech are relatively low and overshadowed by patents in agchemicals. The higher number of agchemicals technologies patented in Malaysia is due to the long history of European MNCs in Malaysia. And, the low number of agbiotech patented in Malaysia, mainly by non-commercial entities is due to two reasons: (1) misalignment of policies promoting the use of modern biotechnology in the Malaysian agricultural sector, and (2) ecological risks of cultivating transgenic crops in Malaysia, a rich-biodiversity country. A political economy framework was utilized in understanding the misalignment of policies promoting the use of modern biotechnology and examining the influence of relevant stakeholder groups on the decision making process concerning regulations overseeing the cultivation of transgenic crops. Two Malaysian Giant conglomerates, Sime Darby Berhad and Felda Holdings Berhad, dominate world palm oil exports and local oil production, and inevitably, have a strong policy influence of the Malaysian agricultural sector. The world's two dominant agchemicals players, Bayer and BASF, also play a major role in the agricultural policy making process in Malaysia. Bayer is one of the leading players that dominate the agchemicals patents in Malaysia. BASF, meanwhile has formed a strategic alliance with the Malaysian Agricultural Research and Development Institute (MARDI) and developed a new herbicide resistant Clearfield rice variety to tackle weedy rice outbreak in Malaysia. These two special interest pressure groups, oil palm and agchemicals producers face large welfare impact if Malaysia adopts transgenic crops. With risk of losing their market shares in Malaysia and their relatively small number, these groups have been able to converge and exercise influence over the stalled commercialization process of transgenic crops. The other reason attributable to the low number of granted agbiotech patents in Malaysia pertains to ecological risk concerning deployment of transgenic organisms on Malaysia's rich biodiversity. Scientific assessments carried out on transgenic rice and papaya suggest that transgenic rice and papaya lines can potentially exert positive and/or negative ecological impacts, i.e., non-target organisms, transgene escape, heteroencapsidation, and RNA recombination. However, the studies reviewed in this dissertation call for long-term assessments to determine the longer term impact of transgenic rice and papaya on non-target organisms and transgene escape. In addition to this, majority of ecological studies carried out on non-target organisms have been limited to third trophic interaction. Considering the fact that Malaysia is a mega-diversity country, ecological studies concerning higher trophic level are required to assess the impact transgenic rice and papaya has on these populations and the food-web dynamics. Studies on heteroencapsidation and RNA recombination of papaya ringspot virus (PRSV) resistant transgenic papaya is also limited even though PRSV-resistant transgenic papaya has been in the market for over fifteen years. Ultimately, while transgenic rice and papaya do carry ecological risks, the decision to cultivate these crops lies on the benefits brought upon by these crops. World food supplies demand intensive crop production due to increased population growth, climate change, pest and disease challenges, political unrest, deterioration of soil quality, drought and flood. Ultimately, the benefits and challenges in cultivating transgenic crops need to be considered on a case-by-case basis. Cultivating transgenic crops has potential to decrease reliance on external inputs and reduce ecological risk. As such, until we can derive a balance between the two, we must strive to continue to improvise the transgenic technology to suit these two goals. For future research, it is recommended to determine the funding mechanisms of studies reviewed for the ecological assessments of transgenic rice and papaya in order to assess the objectivity of the study findings

IEOM Society International

IEOM Society Internationa

Innovative Asia: Advancing the Knowledge-Based Economy - Country Case Studies for the People\u27s Republic of China, India, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan

Knowledge and innovation are widely acknowledged as key drivers of growth and economic development. The economies of Asia and the Pacific have been steadily growing in prominence in terms of share of global gross domestic product (GDP), which increased from 21% in 1980 to 38% in 2012, but they need to pursue knowledge-based economic development to sustain their high rates of growth. The share of developing Asia in global GDP has also risen sharply from 8% to 26% in the same period, and is expected to reach 30% by 2017 (IMF 2012). The Asia 2050 report of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects that if Asia continues to grow on its recent trajectory, it could account for 52% of global GDP by 2050 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms (ADB 2011). However, the Asia 2050 report concludes that an “Asian Century” is by no means preordained: Asia’s continued ascent is predicated upon the ability of the region’s economies to transform themselves effectively into knowledge-based economies (KBEs). Pursuing a development process driven by effective creation, dissemination, and application of knowledge will be necessary to turn the growth potential into reality. This report argues that it is absolutely essential for emerging economies in Asia to transition into KBEs to sustain their economic development, while preparing effectively for the future challenges of an increasingly connected global economy. In fact, pursuing KBE development could help emerging economies effectively position themselves better to capitalize on market opportunities by using their unique endowments and strengths. The times are opportune for Asia to accelerate KBE development. Emerging economies in Asia need to have new models of growth and development to maintain the robust rates of growth experienced in recent times. Structural policy reforms are required to ensure productivity growth. Reforms are also needed for economic upgrading to move the region’s economies up the global value chains of more sophisticated products and services. Countries need become competitive in technology-intensive sectors. This report presents the case studies for four countries at the middle-income level—People’s Republic of China, India, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan—in their KBE approaches and identifies a range of policies and initiatives they need to consider to make a transition to high-income levels

Epizoological Tools for Acute Hepatopancreatic Necrosis Disease (AHPND) in Thai Shrimp Farming

Acute hepatopancreatic necrosis disease (AHPND) is an emerging bacterial infection in shrimp that has been widespread across the major world shrimp producing countries since 2009. AHPND epizootics have resulted in a huge loss of global shrimp production, similar to that caused by white spot disease in the 1990’s. The epizootiological understanding of the spread of AHPND is still in its early stages, however, and most of the currently published research findings are based on experimental studies that may struggle to capture the potential for disease transmission at the country scale. The main aim of this research, therefore, is to develop epizootiological tools to study AHPND transmission between shrimp farming sites. Some tools used in this research have already been applied to shrimp epizoology, but others are used here for the first time to evaluate the spread of shrimp diseases. According to an epizootiological survey of AHPND in Thailand (Chapter 3), the first case of AHPND in the country was in eastern shrimp farms in January 2012. The disease was then transmitted to the south in December 2012. The results obtained from interviews, undertaken with 143 sample farms were stratified by three farm-scales (large, medium and small) and two locations (east and south). Both the southern location and large-scale farming were associated with a delay in AHPND onset compared with the eastern location and small- and medium-scale farming. The 24 risk factors (mostly related to farming management practices) for AHPND were investigated in a cross-sectional study (Chapter 3). This allowed the development of an AHPND decision tree for defining cases (diseased farms) and controls (non-diseased farms) because at the time of the study AHPND was a disease of unknown etiology. Results of univariate and unconditional logistic regression models indicated that two farming management practices related to the onset of AHPND. First, the absence of pond harrowing before shrimp stocking increased the risk of AHPND occurrence with an odds ratio () of 3.9 (95 % CI 1.3–12.6; P‑value = 0.01), whereas earthen ponds decreased the risk of AHPND with an of 0.25 (95 % CI 0.06–0.8; P‑value = 0.02). These findings imply that good farming management practices, such as pond-bottom harrowing, which are a common practice of shrimp farming in earthen ponds, may contribute to overcoming AHPND infection at farm level. For the purposes of disease surveillance and control, the structure of the live shrimp movement network within Thailand (LSMN) was modelled, which demonstrated the high potential for site-to-site disease spread (Chapter 4). Real network data was recorded over a 13-month period from March 2013 to March 2014 by the Thailand Department of Fisheries. After data validation, c. 74 400 repeated connections between 13 801 shrimp farming sites were retained. 77 % of the total connections were inter-province movements; the remaining connections were intra-province movements (23 %). The results demonstrated that the LSMN had properties that both aided and hindered disease spread (Chapter 4). For hindering transmission, the correlation between and degrees was weakly positive, i.e. it suggests that sites with a high risk of catching disease posed a low risk for transmitting the disease (assuming solely network spread), and the LSMN showed disassortative mixing, i.e. a low preference for connections joining sites with high degree linked to connections with high degree. However, there were low values for mean shortest path length and clustering. The latter characteristics tend to be associated with the potential for disease epidemics. Moreover, the LSMN displayed the power-law in both and degree distributions with the exponents 2.87 and 2.17, respectively. The presence of power-law distributions indicates that most sites in the LSMN have a small number of connections, while a few sites have large numbers of connections. These findings not only contribute to a better understanding of disease spread between sites, therefore, but also reveal the importance of targeted disease surveillance and control, due to the detection of scale-free properties in the LSMN. Chapter 5, therefore, examined the effectiveness of targeted disease surveillance and control in respect to reducing the potential size of epizootics in the LSMN. The study untilised network approaches to identify high-risk connections, whose removal from the network could reduce epizootics. Five disease-control algorithms were developed for the comparison: four of these algorithms were based on centrality measures to represent targeted approaches, with a non-targeted approach as a control. With the targeted approaches, technically admissible centrality measures were considered: the betweenness (the number of shortest paths that go through connections in a network), connection weight (the frequency of repeated connections between a site pair), eigenvector (considering the degree centralities of all neighbouring sites connected to a specified site), and subnet-crossing (prioritising connections that links two different subnetworks). The results showed that the estimated epizootic sizes were smaller when an optimal targeted approach was applied, compared with the random targeting of high-risk connections. This optimal targeted approach can be used to prioritise targets in the context of establishing disease surveillance and control programmes. With complex modes of disease transmission (i.e. long-distance transmission like via live shrimp movement, and local transmission), an compartmental, individual-based epizootic model was constructed for AHPND (Chapter 6). The modelling uncovered the seasonality of AHPND epizootics in Thailand, which were found likely to occur between April and August (during the hot and rainy seasons of Thailand). Based on two movement types, intra-province movements were a small proportion of connections, and they alone could cause a small AHPND epizootic. The main pathway for AHPND spread is therefore long-distance transmission and regulators need to increase the efficacy of testing for diseases in farmed shrimp before movements and improve the conduct of routine monitoring for diseases. The implementation of these biosecurity practices was modelled by changing the values of the long-distance transmission rate. The model demonstrated that high levels of biosecurity on live shrimp movements (1) led to a decrease in the potential size of epizootics in Thai shrimp farming. Moreover, the potential size of epizootics was also decreased when AHPND spread was modelled with a decreased value for the local transmission rate. Hence, not only did the model predict AHPND epizootic dynamics stochastically, but it also assessed biosecurity enhancement, allowing the design of effective prevention programmes. In brief, this thesis develops tools for the systematic epizootiological study of AHPND transmission in Thai shrimp farming and demonstrates that: (1) at farm level, current Thai shrimp farming should enhance biosecurity systems even in larger businesses, (2) at country level, targeted disease control strategies are required to establish disease surveillance and control measures. Although the epizootiological tools used here mainly evaluate the spread of AHPND in shrimp farming sites, they could be adapted to other infectious diseases or other farming sectors, such as the current spread of tilapia lake virus in Nile tilapia farms